1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 17
  3. ODU @ UVA
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 17

Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Cavaliers

John Paul Jones Arena · at Virginia
#233ODUOld Dominion
@
#20UVAVirginia AP #9
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ODUThis seasonUVA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UVA 90–58 · win probability UVA 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UVA has more of the edges

ODU 0, UVA 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UVABig
ODU offense vs UVA defense
Offense 240th of 366 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
UVABig
UVA offense vs ODU defense
Offense 32nd of 366 against a defense 222nd, on the model’s ratings
UVABig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ODU 26.0%, UVA 37.9%. Defensive: ODU 69.7%, UVA 70.8%
UVABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: ODU 50.6 and allows 50.8; UVA 54.6 and allows 45.8
Context
Schedule so far
ODU has played the 188th-hardest schedule, UVA the 68th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: ODU plays 70.8 a game (81st fastest), UVA 67.6 (247th). Faster games mean more points
UVASmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: ODU 34.7, UVA 32.3. Allowed: ODU 42.0, UVA 32.9
UVASmall
Home court
UVA at home. This season: UVA 0-0 at home, ODU 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ODU 34%, UVA 57%. Transfers in: ODU 4, UVA 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
ODU hits 36.0% and allows 32.0%; UVA hits 36.3% and allows 31.6%. Threes are 36.2% and 46.7% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ODU 15.4%, UVA 16.0%. Forced: ODU 14.5%, UVA 15.4%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UVA -31.9—
Total—148.4—
Projected score—ODU 58.3 · UVA 90.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUVA -18.8—
1H total69.4—
1H projected scoreODU 25.3 · UVA 44.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Virginia has the better starters

Position by position: Old Dominion 0, Virginia 5, even 0
Old DominionBetterVirginia
G B. Benjamin TR5.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32
UVABig
G J. Dixon TR15.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 82
G Z. Wiggins6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 46
UVASmall
G J. Vide TR12 pts · 3.1 reb · 4 ast Score 66
G S. Hubbard3.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 10
UVABig
G C. Harmon TR13.2 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 73
F Z. Weluche-Ume TR11.1 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 29
UVABig
G S. Lewis10.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77
F J. Turner6.2 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 30
UVABig
F T. De Ridder15.6 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95
Old DominionBetterVirginia
ODU offense240th of 366 · -7.3
UVABig
UVA defense13th of 366 · +6.6
ODU defense222nd of 366 · -5.8
UVABig
UVA offense32nd of 366 · +5.9
Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players
UVABig
Backcourt+3.7 · 4 players
Frontcourt-2.9 · 2 players
UVABig
Frontcourt+4.2 · 1 player
Bench-3.2 · 5 players
UVABig
Bench+3.8 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestODU betterUVA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Old Dominion
Guards
B. Benjamin20 min · TRZ. Wiggins18 minS. Hubbard16 minK. Thurmon11 min · TRC. Parker3 minR. Hellams2 min
Forwards
Z. Weluche-Ume31 min · TRJ. Turner21 minK. Howze10 min · TRB. Nacey8 minJ. NwekeNewL. MartiniNew
Virginia
Guards
J. Dixon31 min · TRJ. Vide29 min · TRC. Harmon28 min · TRS. Lewis26 minC. Mallory24 minE. Gertrude6 min
Forwards
T. De Ridder28 minC. Lang2 minK. AnyaNewS. BarksdaleNewN. AdekunleNew
Centers
J. Grunloh21 minF. IbeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ODUUVA
Scoring
75.7 #150Points per game80.4 #57
1.06 #217Points per possession1.19 #21
70.8 #81Pace (possessions)67.6 #247
Shooting
50.6 #203Effective FG%54.6 #49
36.0 #603-point %36.3 #48
36.2 #2453-point attempt rate46.7 #36
34.7 #189Free throw rate32.3 #253
Possessions
15.4 #95Turnover rate16.0 #141
26.0 #323Offensive rebound rate37.9 #9
12.9 #218Assists per game16.3 #41
Defense
78.7 #283Points allowed68.8 #46
1.12 #263Points allowed per possession1.02 #39
50.8 #145Opponent effective FG%45.8 #8
32.0 #62Opponent 3-point %31.6 #46
14.5 #321Turnovers forced15.4 #256
69.7 #176Defensive rebound rate70.8 #120
5.7 #275Steals per game6.3 #199
3.1 #208Blocks per game6.4 #1
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Old Dominion

11-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs GA Southern84–88
  • Wvs UL Monroe87–80
  • W@ Georgia St81–73
  • L@ Marshall88–97
  • L@ Southern Miss81–86

A week or more of rest.

Virginia

30-6 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee72–79
  • Wvs Wright St82–73
  • Lvs Duke70–74
  • Wvs Miami84–62
  • Wvs NC State81–74

A week or more of rest.