1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 27
  3. UVA vs XAV
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 27

Virginia Cavaliers vs Xavier Musketeers

Imperial Arena · Neutral site
#20UVAVirginia AP #9
vs
#49XAVXavier
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UVAThis seasonXAV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UVA 83–74 · win probability UVA 78%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UVA has more of the edges

UVA 5, XAV 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UVABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UVA 54.6 and allows 45.8; XAV 51.8 and allows 54.1
UVABig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UVA 37.9%, XAV 26.5%. Defensive: UVA 70.8%, XAV 70.5%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: UVA plays 67.6 a game (247th fastest), XAV 71.8 (44th). Faster games mean more points
UVASmall
Three-pointers
UVA hits 36.3% and allows 31.6%; XAV hits 36.5% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 46.7% and 40.6% of their shots
UVASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UVA 57%, XAV 14%. Transfers in: UVA 3, XAV 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
XAVSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UVA 16.0%, XAV 14.0%. Forced: UVA 15.4%, XAV 15.5%
UVASmall
UVA offense vs XAV defense
Offense 32nd of 366 against a defense 89th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UVA 32.3, XAV 28.1. Allowed: UVA 32.9, XAV 32.6
Context
Schedule so far
UVA has played the 68th-hardest schedule, XAV the 34th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
XAV offense vs UVA defense
Offense 31st of 366 against a defense 13th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UVA -9.0—
Total—156.7—
Projected score—UVA 82.8 · XAV 73.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUVA -5.5—
1H total73.2—
1H projected scoreUVA 39.3 · XAV 33.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Xavier has the better starters

Position by position: Virginia 1, Xavier 2, even 2
VirginiaBetterXavier
G J. Dixon TR15.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 82
XAVSmall
G C. Westry TR15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97
G J. Vide TR12 pts · 3.1 reb · 4 ast Score 66
XAVSmall
G T. Washington TR11.9 pts · 4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 82
G C. Harmon TR13.2 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 73
Even
F N. Chitikoudis TR11.1 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 66
G S. Lewis10.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 77
Even
F J. Milicevic12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 75
F T. De Ridder15.6 pts · 6.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95
UVASmall
F R. Aligbe TR9.4 pts · 7.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 74
VirginiaBetterXavier
UVA offense32nd of 366 · +5.9
UVASmall
XAV defense89th of 366 · -0.2
UVA defense13th of 366 · +6.6
Even
XAV offense31st of 366 · +6.0
Backcourt+3.7 · 4 players
XAVSmall
Backcourt+6.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt+4.2 · 1 player
UVASmall
Frontcourt+3.1 · 3 players
Bench+3.8 · 5 players
XAVSmall
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUVA betterXAV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Virginia
Guards
J. Dixon31 min · TRJ. Vide29 min · TRC. Harmon28 min · TRS. Lewis26 minC. Mallory24 minE. Gertrude6 min
Forwards
T. De Ridder28 minC. Lang2 minK. AnyaNewS. BarksdaleNewN. AdekunleNew
Centers
J. Grunloh21 minF. IbeNew
Xavier
Guards
C. Westry31 min · TRT. Washington28 min · TRR. Dominguez23 min · TRB. Appelhans13 min · TRM. Wolf2 minK. HouseNew
Forwards
N. Chitikoudis27 min · TRJ. Milicevic26 minR. Aligbe25 min · TRM. Nwoko22 min · TRH. Thole1 minG. PozzatoNew
Centers
K. WestphalNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UVAXAV
Scoring
80.4 #57Points per game78.4 #91
1.19 #21Points per possession1.09 #149
67.6 #247Pace (possessions)71.8 #44
Shooting
54.6 #49Effective FG%51.8 #155
36.3 #483-point %36.5 #39
46.7 #363-point attempt rate40.6 #156
32.3 #253Free throw rate28.1 #341
Possessions
16.0 #141Turnover rate14.0 #21
37.9 #9Offensive rebound rate26.5 #311
16.3 #41Assists per game17.4 #15
Defense
68.8 #46Points allowed80.6 #329
1.02 #39Points allowed per possession1.12 #276
45.8 #8Opponent effective FG%54.1 #302
31.6 #46Opponent 3-point %34.8 #237
15.4 #256Turnovers forced15.5 #253
70.8 #120Defensive rebound rate70.5 #136
6.3 #199Steals per game6.5 #181
6.4 #1Blocks per game4.0 #77
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Virginia

30-6 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee72–79
  • Wvs Wright St82–73
  • Lvs Duke70–74
  • Wvs Miami84–62
  • Wvs NC State81–74

A week or more of rest.

Xavier

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn68–93
  • Wvs Marquette89–87
  • L@ Villanova78–91
  • Lvs Seton Hall68–77
  • Wvs Georgetown91–84

A week or more of rest.