Xavier Musketeers at Cincinnati Bearcats: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 8:00 PM ETFifth Third Arena · at Cincinnati

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Xavier and Cincinnati
XAV	This season	CIN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CIN 81–74 · win probability CIN 71%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 155.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CIN has more of the edges

XAV 0, CIN 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

CINBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: XAV 26.5%, CIN 30.6%. Defensive: XAV 70.5%, CIN 72.7%

CINSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: XAV 51.8 and allows 54.1; CIN 50.5 and allows 47.4

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: XAV plays 71.8 a game (44th fastest), CIN 69.4 (152nd). Faster games mean more points

CINSmall

Home court

CIN at home. This season: CIN 0-0 at home, XAV 0-0 away

Even

CIN offense vs XAV defense

Offense 49th of 366 against a defense 89th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: XAV 28.1, CIN 29.4. Allowed: XAV 32.6, CIN 30.0

Even

Three-pointers

XAV hits 36.5% and allows 34.8%; CIN hits 33.9% and allows 31.0%. Threes are 40.6% and 43.8% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: XAV 14%, CIN 1%. Transfers in: XAV 7, CIN 12. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: XAV 14.0%, CIN 17.0%. Forced: XAV 15.5%, CIN 18.2%

Even

XAV offense vs CIN defense

Offense 31st of 366 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

XAV has played the 34th-hardest schedule, CIN the 39th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CIN -6.4	—
Total	—	155.2	—
Projected score	—	XAV 74.4 · CIN 80.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CIN -3.7	—
1H total	72.5	—
1H projected score	XAV 34.4 · CIN 38.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
XAV WLLWL	16-17	48%	4-7	—
CIN WWLLL	14-19	42%	10-8	—

Venue/role: XAV away; CIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
XAV OOOOO	24-9	73%	15-18
CIN OOUOU	13-20	39%	18-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
XAV	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%
CIN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Xavier

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 9	vs PFW	No recent meeting
Dec 12	vs FIU	No recent meeting

Cincinnati

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 14	vs STET	W83–75LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

XAV 4–1 CINXAV leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · XAV 4-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 5, 2025-26	CIN 74 @ XAV 79	XAV +1.5	XAV W
Dec 14, 2024-25	XAV 65 @ CIN 68	CIN -7.5	XAV W
Dec 9, 2023-24	CIN 79 @ XAV 84	XAV -1	XAV W
Dec 10, 2022-23	XAV 80 @ CIN 77	CIN +3.5	CIN W
Dec 11, 2021-22	CIN 63 @ XAV 83	XAV -6.5	XAV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Xavier

33 games played

Straight up

15-18

45% wins

Against the spread

16-17

48% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

24-9

73% overs · avg +6 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1845%

W W L L W L W W W W W L W L L L W W L L L W L L W L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1748%

L L L L W W W W L W L L W L L W W W W W L L L W W W L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

24-973%

U U U U O U O O O O U O O O O U O O O O O U O O O O U O O O O O O

6 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRST	W 66-62	-12.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 128
Nov 6	vsLEM	W 74-69	-24.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 143
Nov 10	vsSCU	L 68-87	-3.5	L −22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 14	@IOWA	L 62-81	+15.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 143
Nov 18	vsODU	W 99-69	-10.5	W +19.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 21	vsUGA	L 77-78	+10.5	W +9.5	165.5	U 155
Nov 23	vsWVU	W 78-68	+5.5	W +15.5	140.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsAMCC	W 88-67	-13.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 155
Dec 1	vsSFPA	W 96-74	-27.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 5	vsCIN	W 79-74	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 12	vsMOST	W 75-57	-18.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 132
Dec 17	vsCREI	L 57-98	-2.5	L −43.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 20	@GTWN	W 80-77	+4.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 157
Dec 31	vsCONN	L 67-90	+11.5	L −11.5	144.5	O 157
Jan 3	@DEP	L 77-86	+2.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 163
Jan 7	@MARQ	L 65-66	+5.5	W +4.5	157.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsPROV	W 97-84	+1.5	W +14.5	165.5	O 181
Jan 14	vsBTLR	W 89-75	+1.5	W +15.5	161.5	O 164
Jan 21	@CREI	L 93-94	+8.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 187
Jan 24	vsSJU	L 83-88	+8.5	W +3.5	159.5	O 171
Jan 28	@HALL	L 68-86	+5.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 31	vsDEP	W 68-66	-4.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 134
Feb 3	@CONN	L 60-92	+16.5	L −15.5	147.5	O 152
Feb 9	@SJU	L 82-87	+16.5	W +11.5	159.5	O 169
Feb 14	vsMARQ	W 96-88	-1.5	W +6.5	157.5	O 184
Feb 17	vsVILL	L 89-92	+4.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 181
Feb 21	@BTLR	L 75-80	+4.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 155
Feb 25	@PROV	L 84-94	+5.5	L −4.5	170.5	O 178
Feb 28	vsGTWN	W 91-84	-4.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 175
Mar 3	vsHALL	L 68-77	+1.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 145
Mar 7	@VILL	L 78-91	+11.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 169
Mar 11	vsMARQ	W 89-87	+4.5	W +6.5	157.5	O 176
Mar 12	vsCONN	L 68-93	+17.5	L −7.5	150.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−8.5

LEM

W 74-69

−19.5

SCU

L 68-87

−22.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−3.5

ODU

W 99-69

+19.5

UGA

L 77-78

+9.5

WVU

W 78-68

+15.5

AMCC

W 88-67

+7.5

SFPA

W 96-74

−5.5

CIN

W 79-74

+6.5

MOST

W 75-57

−0.5

CREI

L 57-98

−43.5

GTWN

W 80-77

+7.5

CONN

L 67-90

−11.5

DEP

L 77-86

−6.5

MARQ

L 65-66

+4.5

PROV

W 97-84

+14.5

BTLR

W 89-75

+15.5

CREI

L 93-94

+7.5

SJU

L 83-88

+3.5

HALL

L 68-86

−12.5

DEP

W 68-66

−2.5

CONN

L 60-92

−15.5

SJU

L 82-87

+11.5

MARQ

W 96-88

+6.5

VILL

L 89-92

+1.5

BTLR

L 75-80

−0.5

PROV

L 84-94

−4.5

GTWN

W 91-84

+2.5

HALL

L 68-77

−7.5

VILL

L 78-91

−1.5

MARQ

W 89-87

+6.5

CONN

L 68-93

−7.5

covered 16didn’t cover 17avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−11.5

LEM

W 74-69

−13.5

SCU

L 68-87

−0.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−0.5

ODU

W 99-69

+17.5

UGA

L 77-78

−10.5

WVU

W 78-68

+5.5

AMCC

W 88-67

+8.5

SFPA

W 96-74

+17.5

CIN

W 79-74

+5.5

MOST

W 75-57

−19.5

CREI

L 57-98

+3.5

GTWN

W 80-77

+7.5

CONN

L 67-90

+12.5

DEP

L 77-86

+13.5

MARQ

L 65-66

−26.5

PROV

W 97-84

+15.5

BTLR

W 89-75

+2.5

CREI

L 93-94

+31.5

SJU

L 83-88

+11.5

HALL

L 68-86

+8.5

DEP

W 68-66

−16.5

CONN

L 60-92

+4.5

SJU

L 82-87

+9.5

MARQ

W 96-88

+26.5

VILL

L 89-92

+28.5

BTLR

L 75-80

−4.5

PROV

L 84-94

+7.5

GTWN

W 91-84

+19.5

HALL

L 68-77

+0.5

VILL

L 78-91

+15.5

MARQ

W 89-87

+18.5

CONN

L 68-93

+10.5

over 24under 9avg +6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Cincinnati

33 games played

Straight up

18-15

55% wins

Against the spread

14-19

42% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-20

39% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1555%

W W W W L W L W L L W L W L L L W W L L W L L W W W W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1942%

W L W L L L L L L L W W W L L W W W L L W L L W W L W L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-2039%

O U U U U O U U O U U U O U U U U O U O U U U O O U O O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWCU	W 94-63	-22.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 157
Nov 7	vsGAST	W 74-64	-29.5	L −19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 11	vsDAY	W 74-62	-5.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 16	vsMSM	W 72-55	-25.5	L −8.5	145.5	U 127
Nov 21	vsLOU	L 64-74	+8.5	L −1.5	163.5	U 138
Nov 24	vsNJIT	W 94-67	-34.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 161
Nov 26	vsEMU	L 56-64	-22.5	L −30.5	146.5	U 120
Dec 1	vsTAR	W 76-58	-24.5	L −6.5	142.5	U 134
Dec 5	@XAV	L 74-79	-1.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 13	vsUGA	L 65-84	+5.5	L −13.5	157.5	U 149
Dec 17	vsALST	W 88-51	-21.5	W +15.5	145.5	U 139
Dec 21	vsCLEM	L 65-68	+3.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 133
Dec 29	vsLIP	W 89-62	-13.5	W +13.5	150.5	O 151
Jan 3	vsHOU	L 60-67	+4.5	L −2.5	135.5	U 127
Jan 6	@WVU	L 60-62	-1.5	L −3.5	132.5	U 122
Jan 11	@UCF	L 72-73	+2.5	W +1.5	150.5	U 145
Jan 14	vsCOLO	W 77-68	-8.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 145
Jan 17	vsISU	W 79-70	+5.5	W +14.5	141.5	O 149
Jan 21	@ARIZ	L 51-77	+13.5	L −12.5	152.5	U 128
Jan 24	@ASU	L 68-82	-3.5	L −17.5	146.5	O 150
Jan 28	vsBAY	W 67-57	-3.5	W +6.5	145.5	U 124
Jan 31	@HOU	L 54-76	+13.5	L −8.5	135.5	U 130
Feb 5	vsWVU	L 54-59	-5.5	L −10.5	127.5	U 113
Feb 8	vsUCF	W 92-72	-4.5	W +15.5	146.5	O 164
Feb 11	@KSU	W 91-62	-2.5	W +26.5	147.5	O 153
Feb 15	vsUTAH	W 69-65	-12.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 134
Feb 21	@KU	W 84-68	+8.5	W +24.5	139.5	O 152
Feb 24	@TTU	L 68-80	+6.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 148
Feb 28	vsOKST	W 91-68	-9.5	W +13.5	151.5	O 159
Mar 3	vsBYU	W 90-68	-1.5	W +20.5	151.5	O 158
Mar 7	@TCU	L 63-73	+2.5	L −7.5	140.5	U 136
Mar 10	vsUTAH	W 73-66	-12.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 139
Mar 11	vsUCF	L 65-66	-3.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WCU

W 94-63

+8.5

GAST

W 74-64

−19.5

DAY

W 74-62

+6.5

MSM

W 72-55

−8.5

LOU

L 64-74

−1.5

NJIT

W 94-67

−7.5

EMU

L 56-64

−30.5

TAR

W 76-58

−6.5

XAV

L 74-79

−6.5

UGA

L 65-84

−13.5

ALST

W 88-51

+15.5

CLEM

L 65-68

+0.5

LIP

W 89-62

+13.5

HOU

L 60-67

−2.5

WVU

L 60-62

−3.5

UCF

L 72-73

+1.5

COLO

W 77-68

+0.5

ISU

W 79-70

+14.5

ARIZ

L 51-77

−12.5

ASU

L 68-82

−17.5

BAY

W 67-57

+6.5

HOU

L 54-76

−8.5

WVU

L 54-59

−10.5

UCF

W 92-72

+15.5

KSU

W 91-62

+26.5

UTAH

W 69-65

−8.5

W 84-68

+24.5

TTU

L 68-80

−5.5

OKST

W 91-68

+13.5

BYU

W 90-68

+20.5

TCU

L 63-73

−7.5

UTAH

W 73-66

−5.5

UCF

L 65-66

−4.5

covered 14didn’t cover 19avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WCU

W 94-63

+13.5

GAST

W 74-64

−13.5

DAY

W 74-62

−11.5

MSM

W 72-55

−18.5

LOU

L 64-74

−25.5

NJIT

W 94-67

+19.5

EMU

L 56-64

−26.5

TAR

W 76-58

−8.5

XAV

L 74-79

+5.5

UGA

L 65-84

−8.5

ALST

W 88-51

−6.5

CLEM

L 65-68

−7.5

LIP

W 89-62

+0.5

HOU

L 60-67

−8.5

WVU

L 60-62

−10.5

UCF

L 72-73

−5.5

COLO

W 77-68

−0.5

ISU

W 79-70

+7.5

ARIZ

L 51-77

−24.5

ASU

L 68-82

+3.5

BAY

W 67-57

−21.5

HOU

L 54-76

−5.5

WVU

L 54-59

−14.5

UCF

W 92-72

+17.5

KSU

W 91-62

+5.5

UTAH

W 69-65

−5.5

W 84-68

+12.5

TTU

L 68-80

+4.5

OKST

W 91-68

+7.5

BYU

W 90-68

+6.5

TCU

L 63-73

−4.5

UTAH

W 73-66

+0.5

UCF

L 65-66

−18.5

over 13under 20avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Cincinnati has the better starters

Position by position: Xavier 0, Cincinnati 3, even 2

XavierBetterCincinnati

G C. Westry TR15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97

Even

G J. Campbell TR19.3 pts · 4.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 95

G T. Washington TR11.9 pts · 4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 82

Even

G T. Carson TR12.2 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 75

F N. Chitikoudis TR11.1 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 66

CINSmall

G M. Collins TR17.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94

F J. Milicevic12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 75

CINSmall

G T. Riley TR15 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.4 ast Score 92

F R. Aligbe TR9.4 pts · 7.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 74

CINSmall

F T. Tejada TR17.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 91

XavierBetterCincinnati

XAV offense31st of 366 · +6.0

Even

CIN defense24th of 366 · +4.9

XAV defense89th of 366 · -0.2

Even

CIN offense49th of 366 · +3.7

Backcourt+6.0 · 2 players

CINBig

Backcourt+12.2 · 4 players

Frontcourt+3.1 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt+4.0 · 1 player

Bench+5.4 · 5 players

Even

Bench+6.3 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestXAV betterCIN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Xavier

Guards

C. Westry31 min · TRT. Washington28 min · TRR. Dominguez23 min · TRB. Appelhans13 min · TRM. Wolf2 minK. HouseNew

Forwards

N. Chitikoudis27 min · TRJ. Milicevic26 minR. Aligbe25 min · TRM. Nwoko22 min · TRH. Thole1 minG. PozzatoNew

Centers

K. WestphalNew

Cincinnati

Guards

J. Campbell35 min · TRT. Carson33 min · TRM. Collins31 min · TRT. Riley28 min · TRM. Colvin27 min · TRA. Fleming26 min · TR

Forwards

T. Tejada36 min · TRR. Allenspach25 min · TRJ. Hastings23 min · TRA. Elamin20 min · TRD. VadenNewD. IwezeNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

XAV78.4 #91

CIN73.1 #221

Points per possession

XAV1.09 #149

CIN1.05 #243

Pace (possessions)

XAV71.8 #44

CIN69.4 #152

Shooting

Effective FG%

XAV51.8 #155

CIN50.5 #213

3-point %

XAV36.5 #39

CIN33.9 #175

3-point attempt rate

XAV40.6 #156

CIN43.8 #94

Free throw rate

XAV28.1 #341

CIN29.4 #323

Possessions

Turnover rate

XAV14.0 #21

CIN17.0 #203

Offensive rebound rate

XAV26.5 #311

CIN30.6 #174

Assists per game

XAV17.4 #15

CIN16.6 #35

Defense

Points allowed

XAV80.6 #329

CIN67.6 #27

Points allowed per possession

XAV1.12 #276

CIN0.97 #9

Opponent effective FG%

XAV54.1 #302

CIN47.4 #27

Opponent 3-point %

XAV34.8 #237

CIN31.0 #35

Turnovers forced

XAV15.5 #253

CIN18.2 #89

Defensive rebound rate

XAV70.5 #136

CIN72.7 #45

Steals per game

XAV6.5 #181

CIN6.3 #208

Blocks per game

XAV4.0 #77

CIN4.2 #53

XAV		CIN
Scoring
78.4 #91	Points per game	73.1 #221
1.09 #149	Points per possession	1.05 #243
71.8 #44	Pace (possessions)	69.4 #152
Shooting
51.8 #155	Effective FG%	50.5 #213
36.5 #39	3-point %	33.9 #175
40.6 #156	3-point attempt rate	43.8 #94
28.1 #341	Free throw rate	29.4 #323
Possessions
14.0 #21	Turnover rate	17.0 #203
26.5 #311	Offensive rebound rate	30.6 #174
17.4 #15	Assists per game	16.6 #35
Defense
80.6 #329	Points allowed	67.6 #27
1.12 #276	Points allowed per possession	0.97 #9
54.1 #302	Opponent effective FG%	47.4 #27
34.8 #237	Opponent 3-point %	31.0 #35
15.5 #253	Turnovers forced	18.2 #89
70.5 #136	Defensive rebound rate	72.7 #45
6.5 #181	Steals per game	6.3 #208
4.0 #77	Blocks per game	4.2 #53

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Xavier

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UConn68–93
Wvs Marquette89–87
L@ Villanova78–91
Lvs Seton Hall68–77
Wvs Georgetown91–84

A week or more of rest.

Cincinnati

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UCF65–66
Wvs Utah73–66
L@ TCU63–73
Wvs BYU90–68
Wvs Oklahoma St91–68

A week or more of rest.

Xavier Musketeers at Cincinnati Bearcats

What could decide it: CIN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Xavier

Cincinnati

Cincinnati has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Xavier

Cincinnati