1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. FIU @ XAV
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Florida International Panthers at Xavier Musketeers

Cintas Center · at Xavier
#178FIUFIU
@
#49XAVXavier
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
FIUThis seasonXAV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects XAV 89–71 · win probability XAV 94%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 159.9
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: XAV has more of the edges

FIU 1, XAV 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
XAVBig
XAV offense vs FIU defense
Offense 31st of 366 against a defense 217th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
FIU has played the 151st-hardest schedule, XAV the 34th. A record against a soft schedule means less
XAVSmall
Three-pointers
FIU hits 34.7% and allows 36.2%; XAV hits 36.5% and allows 34.8%. Threes are 32.8% and 40.6% of their shots
FIUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: FIU 38.6, XAV 28.1. Allowed: FIU 35.9, XAV 32.6
XAVSmall
FIU offense vs XAV defense
Offense 144th of 366 against a defense 89th, on the model’s ratings
XAVSmall
Home court
XAV at home. This season: XAV 0-0 at home, FIU 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: FIU 0%, XAV 14%. Transfers in: FIU 6, XAV 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: FIU 33.9%, XAV 26.5%. Defensive: FIU 65.2%, XAV 70.5%
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: FIU plays 72.4 a game (26th fastest), XAV 71.8 (44th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: FIU 50.6 and allows 52.9; XAV 51.8 and allows 54.1
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: FIU 17.8%, XAV 14.0%. Forced: FIU 20.0%, XAV 15.5%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—XAV -18.1—
Total—159.9—
Projected score—FIU 70.9 · XAV 89

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadXAV -10.7—
1H total74.7—
1H projected scoreFIU 32 · XAV 42.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Xavier has the better starters

Position by position: FIU 0, Xavier 2, even 3
FIUBetterXavier
G T. Saine TR18.1 pts · 2.3 reb · 4.4 ast Score 91
Even
G C. Westry TR15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 5.6 ast Score 97
G C. Caulker TR7.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 22
XAVBig
G T. Washington TR11.9 pts · 4 reb · 1.8 ast Score 82
G H. Cuevas TR2.6 pts · 1 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
F N. Chitikoudis TR11.1 pts · 7.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 66
F J. Colonel TR4.6 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 52
XAVSmall
F J. Milicevic12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.4 ast Score 75
F R. Seals TR7.5 pts · 4 reb · 0.4 ast Score 61
Even
F R. Aligbe TR9.4 pts · 7.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 74
FIUBetterXavier
FIU offense144th of 366 · -4.3
XAVSmall
XAV defense89th of 366 · -0.2
FIU defense217th of 366 · -5.7
XAVBig
XAV offense31st of 366 · +6.0
Backcourt-0.8 · 3 players
XAVBig
Backcourt+6.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.0 · 2 players
XAVBig
Frontcourt+3.1 · 3 players
Bench-0.9 · 1 player
XAVBig
Bench+5.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestFIU betterXAV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
FIU
Guards
T. Saine34 min · TRC. Caulker31 min · TRH. Cuevas13 min · TRN. MendyNewM. BlazerNewC. HallNew
Forwards
J. Colonel26 min · TRR. Seals18 min · TRJ. Payne7 min · TRG. GiceviciusNewC. RingNewS. N'DiayeNew
Xavier
Guards
C. Westry31 min · TRT. Washington28 min · TRR. Dominguez23 min · TRB. Appelhans13 min · TRM. Wolf2 minK. HouseNew
Forwards
N. Chitikoudis27 min · TRJ. Milicevic26 minR. Aligbe25 min · TRM. Nwoko22 min · TRH. Thole1 minG. PozzatoNew
Centers
K. WestphalNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
FIUXAV
Scoring
77.7 #100Points per game78.4 #91
1.08 #197Points per possession1.09 #149
72.4 #26Pace (possessions)71.8 #44
Shooting
50.6 #210Effective FG%51.8 #155
34.7 #1373-point %36.5 #39
32.8 #3213-point attempt rate40.6 #156
38.6 #87Free throw rate28.1 #341
Possessions
17.8 #258Turnover rate14.0 #21
33.9 #69Offensive rebound rate26.5 #311
13.6 #173Assists per game17.4 #15
Defense
79.1 #301Points allowed80.6 #329
1.09 #194Points allowed per possession1.12 #276
52.9 #264Opponent effective FG%54.1 #302
36.2 #313Opponent 3-point %34.8 #237
20.0 #22Turnovers forced15.5 #253
65.2 #335Defensive rebound rate70.5 #136
8.8 #12Steals per game6.5 #181
4.4 #43Blocks per game4.0 #77
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

FIU

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Missouri St72–75
  • Wvs Western KY92–67
  • Lvs MTSU67–73
  • W@ Louisiana Tech84–76
  • L@ Sam Houston67–100

A week or more of rest.

Xavier

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-15 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn68–93
  • Wvs Marquette89–87
  • L@ Villanova78–91
  • Lvs Seton Hall68–77
  • Wvs Georgetown91–84

A week or more of rest.