Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Florida International Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 28, 7:00 PM ETOcean Bank Convocation Center · at FIU · Conference game

#198JXSTJax State78▲ winner

Final

#178FIUFIU74final

Closing lineFIU -3.5✓ JXST covered by 7.5

Closing total148.5Over by 3.5

Season records: Jax State and FIU
JXST	This season	FIU
7-9	Record	7-10
5-11	ATS	11-6
9-7	O/U	9-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: JXST 72–76 FIU · ✗ FIU (64%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
JXST	24	54	78
FIU	32	42	74

1st half: JXST 24, FIU 32 (FIU by 8). The model had FIU by 2.3 and a total of 69.2 (actual 56).

Team stats

JXST		FIU
26-54 48%	Field goals	26-59 44%
4-18 22%	3-pointers	6-21 29%
22-32 69%	Free throws	16-22 73%
34 6 off	Rebounds	36 8 off
14	Assists	8
11	Steals	9
4	Blocks	3
16	Turnovers	19
21	Fouls	23
42	Points in paint	38
16	Fast-break points	14

Players

JXST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jacoby Hill G	37	15	5	3	5-8	1-2
Mostapha El Moutaouakkil G	35	31	5	4	10-18	1-2
AC Bryant G	23	7	5	1	2-11	1-8
Iaroslav Niagu F	22	6	7	0	3-3	0-0
Jamar Franklin G	19	2	0	2	1-3	0-2
Bench
Jaye Nash G	23	2	4	4	0-2	0-1
Emondrek Erkins-Ford F	20	10	3	0	3-6	0-1
Marcus Fitzgerald Jr. G	9	3	2	0	1-2	1-2
Toby Nnadozie G	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Thomas Tut F	6	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Aidan Driggers, Jordan Vick, Connor Loy, Ben Vungo, Aitor Anabitarte

FIU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Eric Dibami C	33	6	10	1	2-6	0-0
Corey Stephenson G	33	20	6	1	7-14	4-7
Zawdie Jackson G	28	9	0	0	3-5	1-2
Ashton Williamson G	23	8	5	2	3-10	0-4
Hamed Olayinka F	20	9	3	0	4-6	0-0
Bench
Julian Mackey G	23	14	1	2	3-8	1-5
Brit Harris G	17	4	6	1	2-5	0-3
Thiago Sucatzky G	14	2	1	1	1-4	0-0
Ibrahim Olajuwon C	9	2	2	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Jorge Santos, Aydan Clinton, Gvidas Gicevicius, Mikey Kelvin II, Renato Ruiz, Kennedy Brown, Amarion Nimmers

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FIU -3.5	FIU -4.1	FIU +0.6	L JXST covered
Total	148.5	147.7	Under 0.8	L Over
Projected score	—	JXST 71.8 · FIU 75.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FIU -2.3	FIU -8.0
1H total	69.2	56
1H projected score	JXST 33.4 · FIU 35.7	JXST 24 · FIU 32

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST WLLLW	5-11	31%	2-4	4-3
FIU LWLLW	11-6	65%	7-2	4-3

Venue/role: JXST away, as underdog; FIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST UOUUU	9-7	56%	7-9
FIU UUUOU	9-8	53%	7-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXST	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
FIU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22

JXST 7–1 FIUJXST leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · JXST has won the last 4 meetings · JXST 6-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 7, 2025-26	FIU 64 @ JXST 71	JXST -1.5	JXST W
Mar 12, 2024-25	FIU 56 vs JXST 65	JXST -7.5	JXST W
Mar 1, 2024-25	JXST 84 @ FIU 79	FIU +3.5	JXST W
Jan 30, 2024-25	FIU 67 @ JXST 71	JXST -6.5	FIU W
Mar 12, 2023-24	FIU 76 vs JXST 67	JXST -4.5	FIU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jax State

16 games played

Straight up

7-9

44% wins

Against the spread

5-11

31% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-7

56% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-944%

W L L L L L L W W W L W L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

5-1131%

L L L L L L L W W L W W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-756%

O O U U O O U O O O O U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 14	vsCCU	W 74-67	-7.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 19	vsUSA	L 65-71	-2.5	L −8.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 24	@ARST	L 63-74	+4.5	L −6.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsNDSU	L 43-56	+3.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 99
Dec 1	vsUNA	L 66-73	-6.5	L −13.5	134.5	O 139
Dec 13	@GAST	L 73-77	-3.5	L −7.5	139.5	O 150
Dec 17	vsEKU	L 59-62	-2.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 20	@ETSU	W 81-75	+9.5	W +15.5	134.5	O 156
Dec 29	vsWKU	W 78-67	+2.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 145
Jan 2	@DEL	W 67-64	-4.5	L −1.5	126.5	O 131
Jan 4	@LIB	L 69-78	+9.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 7	vsFIU	W 71-64	-1.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 135
Jan 10	@KENN	L 82-88	+5.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 170
Jan 14	vsSHSU	L 62-77	-1.5	L −16.5	150.5	U 139
Jan 17	vsLT	W 64-60	-4.5	L −0.5	127.5	U 124
Jan 23	vsMTSU	W 75-58	+1.5	W +18.5	133.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

−0.5

USA

L 65-71

−8.5

ARST

L 63-74

−6.5

NDSU

L 43-56

−9.5

UNA

L 66-73

−13.5

GAST

L 73-77

−7.5

EKU

L 59-62

−5.5

ETSU

W 81-75

+15.5

WKU

W 78-67

+13.5

DEL

W 67-64

−1.5

LIB

L 69-78

+0.5

FIU

W 71-64

+5.5

KENN

L 82-88

−0.5

SHSU

L 62-77

−16.5

W 64-60

−0.5

MTSU

W 75-58

+18.5

covered 5didn’t cover 11avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

+1.5

USA

L 65-71

+0.5

ARST

L 63-74

−18.5

NDSU

L 43-56

−43.5

UNA

L 66-73

+4.5

GAST

L 73-77

+10.5

EKU

L 59-62

−21.5

ETSU

W 81-75

+21.5

WKU

W 78-67

+2.5

DEL

W 67-64

+4.5

LIB

L 69-78

+12.5

FIU

W 71-64

−15.5

KENN

L 82-88

+20.5

SHSU

L 62-77

−11.5

W 64-60

−3.5

MTSU

W 75-58

−0.5

over 9under 7avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

FIU

17 games played

Straight up

7-10

41% wins

Against the spread

11-6

65% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-8

53% overs · avg +2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-1041%

L L L W W W L W L W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-665%

L W L W W W W W W W W L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

9-853%

O O U U O O O O O O U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@NEB	L 66-96	+21.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 162
Nov 13	@LSU	L 81-98	+21.5	W +4.5	158.5	O 179
Nov 24	vsJMU	L 72-80	-2.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 152
Nov 26	vsOMA	W 74-61	-4.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 135
Dec 3	vsFGCU	W 89-83	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 172
Dec 6	vsJAX	W 88-65	-5.5	W +17.5	145.5	O 153
Dec 16	@MIA	L 81-98	+22.5	W +5.5	161.5	O 179
Dec 20	vsLIU	W 86-79	-6.5	W +0.5	161.5	O 165
Dec 28	vsLIB	L 94-97	+4.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 191
Jan 2	vsNMSU	W 89-74	+1.5	W +16.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 4	vsUTEP	W 76-64	-6.5	W +5.5	152.5	U 140
Jan 7	@JXST	L 64-71	+1.5	L −5.5	150.5	U 135
Jan 10	@MOST	L 71-79	+2.5	L −5.5	153.5	U 150
Jan 14	@KENN	L 86-89	+5.5	W +2.5	175.5	U 175
Jan 17	vsSHSU	L 63-76	-2.5	L −15.5	168.5	U 139
Jan 22	@UTEP	L 77-83	-1.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 160
Jan 24	@NMSU	W 81-78	+7.5	W +10.5	159.5	U 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEB

L 66-96

−8.5

LSU

L 81-98

+4.5

JMU

L 72-80

−10.5

OMA

W 74-61

+8.5

FGCU

W 89-83

+7.5

JAX

W 88-65

+17.5

MIA

L 81-98

+5.5

LIU

W 86-79

+0.5

LIB

L 94-97

+1.5

NMSU

W 89-74

+16.5

UTEP

W 76-64

+5.5

JXST

L 64-71

−5.5

MOST

L 71-79

−5.5

KENN

L 86-89

+2.5

SHSU

L 63-76

−15.5

UTEP

L 77-83

−7.5

NMSU

W 81-78

+10.5

covered 11didn’t cover 6avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEB

L 66-96

+5.5

LSU

L 81-98

+20.5

JMU

L 72-80

−3.5

OMA

W 74-61

−22.5

FGCU

W 89-83

+17.5

JAX

W 88-65

+7.5

MIA

L 81-98

+17.5

LIU

W 86-79

+3.5

LIB

L 94-97

+38.5

NMSU

W 89-74

+5.5

UTEP

W 76-64

−12.5

JXST

L 64-71

−15.5

MOST

L 71-79

−3.5

KENN

L 86-89

−0.5

SHSU

L 63-76

−29.5

UTEP

L 77-83

+8.5

NMSU

W 81-78

−0.5

over 9under 8avg +2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Florida International Panthers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Jax State

FIU

Jax State

FIU