Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Jacksonville State Gamecocks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 17, 7:00 PM ETPete Mathews Coliseum · at Jax State

#294EKUE Kentucky62▲ winner

Final

#198JXSTJax State59final

Closing lineJXST -2.5✓ EKU covered by 5.5

Closing total142.5Under by 21.5

Season records: E Kentucky and Jax State
EKU	This season	JXST
1-8	Record	1-5
2-7	ATS	0-6
5-4	O/U	4-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: EKU 71–75 JXST · ✗ JXST (64%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
EKU	38	24	62
JXST	29	30	59

1st half: EKU 38, JXST 29 (EKU by 9). The model had JXST by 2.3 and a total of 68.4 (actual 67).

Team stats

EKU		JXST
21-56 38%	Field goals	18-51 35%
11-31 35%	3-pointers	4-18 22%
9-10 90%	Free throws	19-25 76%
38 13 off	Rebounds	31 11 off
11	Assists	9
3	Steals	5
4	Blocks	1
17	Turnovers	10
22	Fouls	14
16	Points in paint	26
2	Fast-break points	8

Players

EKU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Montavious Myrick F	35	9	13	2	3-12	0-1
Austin Ball F	32	12	6	0	5-12	2-7
Juan Cranford Jr. G	31	12	3	2	4-8	2-5
Yvens Paul F	18	4	4	1	2-3	0-0
MJ Williams G	10	3	2	2	1-4	1-3
Bench
Turner Buttry G	34	19	2	3	5-12	5-11
Asa White C	18	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Jackson Holt G	15	3	1	0	1-3	1-3
Jayden Harris F	7	0	3	1	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Tyler Jackson, Jalen Cooper, Trey Coles, Rydge Beverly, Mason Miles, Amarr Knox

JXST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mostapha El Moutaouakkil G	30	16	7	2	5-16	0-4
Jacoby Hill G	30	7	3	0	2-6	1-3
Iaroslav Niagu F	24	5	3	4	2-4	0-0
Jaye Nash G	16	4	2	1	1-8	0-3
Jamar Franklin G	11	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Bench
AC Bryant G	29	6	2	2	2-3	0-1
Marcus Fitzgerald Jr. G	26	13	1	0	4-7	3-6
Emondrek Erkins-Ford F	22	7	4	0	2-5	0-0
Aitor Anabitarte F	10	1	1	0	0-0	0-0
Thomas Tut F	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Aidan Driggers, Ben Vungo, Toby Nnadozie, Jordan Vick, Connor Loy

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	JXST -2.5	JXST -4.0	JXST +1.5	L EKU covered
Total	142.5	146.1	Over 3.6	L Under
Projected score	—	EKU 71 · JXST 75.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	JXST -2.3	EKU -9.0
1H total	68.4	67
1H projected score	EKU 33.1 · JXST 35.4	EKU 38 · JXST 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EKU LLWWL	2-7	22%	2-3	1-6
JXST LLLLL	0-6	0%	0-3	0-4

Venue/role: EKU away, as underdog; JXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
EKU UOOUU	5-4	56%	1-8
JXST OUUOO	4-2	67%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EKUlast 9	1-8 11%	2-7 22%	5-4 56%
JXSTlast 6	1-5 17%	0-6 0%	4-2 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

EKU 1–3 JXSTJXST leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · EKU 0-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 21, 2024-25	JXST 91 @ EKU 80	EKU +1.5	JXST W
Feb 2, 2022-23	JXST 67 @ EKU 69	EKU -7.5	JXST W
Feb 23, 2021-22	EKU 68 @ JXST 81	JXST -8.5	JXST W
Jan 15, 2021-22	JXST 76 @ EKU 65	EKU -1.5	JXST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

E Kentucky

9 games played

Straight up

1-8

11% wins

Against the spread

2-7

22% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-4

56% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-811%

L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-722%

L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-456%

O U O O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	vsWKU	L 79-87	+1.5	L −6.5	162.5	O 166
Nov 12	@VAN	L 62-92	+28.5	L −1.5	168.5	U 154
Nov 18	@KENT	L 78-93	+10.5	L −4.5	161.5	O 171
Nov 22	vsMER	L 83-95	-4.5	L −16.5	163.5	O 178
Nov 24	@NKU	L 71-82	+4.5	L −6.5	156.5	U 153
Nov 29	vsWOF	L 77-83	+1.5	L −4.5	153.5	O 160
Dec 3	@ILST	L 78-89	+12.5	W +1.5	154.5	O 167
Dec 10	@EIU	W 68-59	-6.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 127
Dec 13	vsM-OH	L 69-79	+5.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WKU

L 79-87

−6.5

VAN

L 62-92

−1.5

KENT

L 78-93

−4.5

MER

L 83-95

−16.5

NKU

L 71-82

−6.5

WOF

L 77-83

−4.5

ILST

L 78-89

+1.5

EIU

W 68-59

+2.5

M-OH

L 69-79

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 7avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WKU

L 79-87

+3.5

VAN

L 62-92

−14.5

KENT

L 78-93

+9.5

MER

L 83-95

+14.5

NKU

L 71-82

−3.5

WOF

L 77-83

+6.5

ILST

L 78-89

+12.5

EIU

W 68-59

−22.5

M-OH

L 69-79

−10.5

over 5under 4avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jax State

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

0-6

0% covers · avg −7.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −7.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 14	vsCCU	W 74-67	-7.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 19	vsUSA	L 65-71	-2.5	L −8.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 24	@ARST	L 63-74	+4.5	L −6.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsNDSU	L 43-56	+3.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 99
Dec 1	vsUNA	L 66-73	-6.5	L −13.5	134.5	O 139
Dec 13	@GAST	L 73-77	-3.5	L −7.5	139.5	O 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

−0.5

USA

L 65-71

−8.5

ARST

L 63-74

−6.5

NDSU

L 43-56

−9.5

UNA

L 66-73

−13.5

GAST

L 73-77

−7.5

covered 0didn’t cover 6avg −7.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

+1.5

USA

L 65-71

+0.5

ARST

L 63-74

−18.5

NDSU

L 43-56

−43.5

UNA

L 66-73

+4.5

GAST

L 73-77

+10.5

over 4under 2avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

E Kentucky

Jax State

E Kentucky

Jax State