Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Kent State Golden Flashes: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 7:00 PM ETM.A.C. Center · at Kent State

Final

#151KENTKent State93▲ winner

Closing lineKENT -10.5✓ KENT covered by 4.5

Closing total161.5Over by 9.5

Season records: E Kentucky and Kent State
EKU	This season	KENT
0-2	Record	4-1
0-2	ATS	2-3
1-1	O/U	4-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: EKU 79–89 KENT · ✓ KENT (79%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
EKU	34	44	78
KENT	53	40	93

1st half: EKU 34, KENT 53 (KENT by 19). The model had KENT by 5.5 and a total of 78.5 (actual 87).

Team stats

EKU		KENT
26-65 40%	Field goals	30-59 51%
11-37 30%	3-pointers	7-22 32%
15-24 63%	Free throws	26-37 70%
37 14 off	Rebounds	40 11 off
8	Assists	17
7	Steals	8
6	Blocks	2
19	Turnovers	16
30	Fouls	21
28	Points in paint	46
17	Fast-break points	19

Players

EKU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Juan Cranford Jr. G	30	14	3	0	5-10	4-8
Montavious Myrick F	26	15	8	1	4-8	0-0
Jalen Cooper F	23	6	4	2	2-7	0-3
Austin Ball F	19	4	2	0	2-6	0-4
MJ Williams G	13	8	0	1	3-5	2-4
Bench
Turner Buttry G	27	5	4	4	1-6	0-4
Jackson Holt G	24	10	2	0	3-7	3-7
Tyler Jackson G	22	12	2	0	4-10	2-6
Yvens Paul F	12	4	6	0	2-4	0-0
Jayden Harris F	2	0	0	0	0-2	0-1
Asa White C	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Amarr Knox, Trey Coles, Rydge Beverly, Mason Miles

KENT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Delrecco Gillespie F	33	25	11	3	9-14	0-1
Morgan Safford G	31	15	4	1	4-8	2-4
Cian Medley G	23	6	2	6	1-4	1-3
Rob Whaley Jr. F	23	20	5	1	6-9	0-0
Jahari Williamson G	17	8	2	0	3-5	2-3
Bench
Quinn Woidke G	27	7	5	4	2-7	2-6
Rayvon Griffith G	13	0	1	1	0-3	0-3
Omer Hamama G	12	8	4	0	4-8	0-2
Magnus Entenmann F	10	2	1	1	0-0	0-0
Dezmon Briscoe F	7	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Landon Vanderwarker F	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Dre Jones F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Drew Huffman, Jaymen Townsend, Brenden Moss, Jamal Sumlin, Dylan Lakatos

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	KENT -10.5	KENT -9.4	EKU +1.1	L KENT covered
Total	161.5	167.6	Over 6.1	W Over
Projected score	—	EKU 79.1 · KENT 88.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	KENT -5.5	KENT -19.0
1H total	78.5	87
1H projected score	EKU 36.5 · KENT 42	EKU 34 · KENT 53

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EKU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2
KENT LWWLL	2-3	40%	2-1	2-3

Venue/role: EKU away, as underdog; KENT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
EKU OU	1-1	50%	0-2
KENT OOOOU	4-1	80%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EKUlast 2	0-2 0%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%
KENTlast 5	4-1 80%	2-3 40%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

E Kentucky

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

0-2

0% covers · avg −4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg −5.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

0-20%

L L

2 straight misses ATS0 of 2 covered

Over / Under

1-150%

O U

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	vsWKU	L 79-87	+1.5	L −6.5	162.5	O 166
Nov 12	@VAN	L 62-92	+28.5	L −1.5	168.5	U 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WKU

L 79-87

−6.5

VAN

L 62-92

−1.5

covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WKU

L 79-87

+3.5

VAN

L 62-92

−14.5

over 1under 1avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kent State

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +26.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-180%

O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTROY	L 97-103	-3.5	L −9.5	142.5	O 200
Nov 7	vsCOR	W 110-102	-6.5	W +1.5	164.5	O 212
Nov 10	vsUNCW	W 86-77	-3.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsCLE	W 102-95	-11.5	L −4.5	165.5	O 197
Nov 16	vsWRST	W 76-72	-4.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TROY

L 97-103

−9.5

COR

W 110-102

+1.5

UNCW

W 86-77

+5.5

CLE

W 102-95

−4.5

WRST

W 76-72

−0.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TROY

L 97-103

+57.5

COR

W 110-102

+47.5

UNCW

W 86-77

+6.5

CLE

W 102-95

+31.5

WRST

W 76-72

−9.5

over 4under 1avg +26.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

E Kentucky @ Kent State

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

E Kentucky

Kent State

E Kentucky

Kent State