Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Kennesaw State Owls: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 10, 5:00 PM ETVyStar Arena · at Kennesaw St · Conference game

#198JXSTJax State82final

Final

#148KENNKennesaw St88▲ winner

Closing lineKENN -5.5✓ KENN covered by 0.5

Closing total149.5Over by 20.5

Season records: Jax State and Kennesaw St
JXST	This season	KENN
5-7	Record	6-6
4-8	ATS	7-5
8-4	O/U	7-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: JXST 73–79 KENN · ✓ KENN (70%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
JXST	43	39	82
KENN	46	42	88

1st half: JXST 43, KENN 46 (KENN by 3). The model had KENN by 3.5 and a total of 71.0 (actual 89).

Team stats

JXST		KENN
28-58 48%	Field goals	27-57 47%
9-23 39%	3-pointers	9-24 38%
17-27 63%	Free throws	25-34 74%
32 10 off	Rebounds	33 11 off
13	Assists	16
6	Steals	5
4	Blocks	6
12	Turnovers	10
22	Fouls	21
36	Points in paint	36
8	Fast-break points	8

Players

JXST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
AC Bryant G	35	11	5	1	3-14	3-11
Jacoby Hill G	25	11	1	2	3-6	2-2
Mostapha El Moutaouakkil G	25	23	10	0	9-16	1-4
Marcus Fitzgerald Jr. G	17	6	3	1	2-4	2-4
Iaroslav Niagu F	16	4	3	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Jaye Nash G	31	6	1	6	1-2	1-1
Emondrek Erkins-Ford F	27	11	4	2	4-6	0-0
Toby Nnadozie G	11	4	1	0	2-5	0-1
Aitor Anabitarte F	7	4	0	1	2-2	0-0
Thomas Tut F	6	2	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Connor Loy, Jordan Vick, Ben Vungo, Aidan Driggers, Jamar Franklin

KENN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Simeon Cottle G	40	28	3	4	6-12	5-9
Trey Simpson F	37	9	4	0	3-9	3-9
Braedan Lue F	29	10	2	1	4-9	0-1
Frankquon Sherman F	27	12	8	2	3-6	0-1
Kaden Rickard G	25	8	3	4	4-6	0-1
Bench
RJ Johnson G	29	16	5	4	5-11	1-3
Perry Smith Jr. C	10	5	5	1	2-3	0-0
Amir Taylor F	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Darius Washington III, Nigel Thomas, Brendan Tousignaut, Dozie Onyirimba, Jamil Miller, Jaden Harris, Davin Cosby Jr., Eric Holland, Charles Stone, Chase Clemmons, Ramone Seals

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	KENN -5.5	KENN -6.0	KENN +0.5	W KENN covered
Total	149.5	151.7	Over 2.2	W Over
Projected score	—	JXST 72.9 · KENN 78.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	KENN -3.5	KENN -3.0
1H total	71.0	89
1H projected score	JXST 33.8 · KENN 37.2	JXST 43 · KENN 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST WWLWW	4-8	33%	2-3	3-2
KENN WWLLW	7-5	58%	2-2	4-3

Venue/role: JXST away, as underdog; KENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST OOOOU	8-4	67%	5-7
KENN UUUUO	7-5	58%	6-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
KENN	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

JXST 2–4 KENNKENN leads · 6 games since 2021-22 · KENN has won the last 4 meetings · JXST 4-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 8, 2024-25	KENN 74 @ JXST 70	JXST -4.5	KENN W
Jan 4, 2024-25	JXST 71 @ KENN 83	KENN -1.5	KENN W
Feb 11, 2022-23	JXST 71 @ KENN 74	KENN -8.5	JXST W
Feb 9, 2022-23	KENN 54 @ JXST 52	JXST +3.5	JXST W
Mar 3, 2021-22	KENN 67 @ JXST 78	JXST -8	JXST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Jax State

12 games played

Straight up

5-7

42% wins

Against the spread

4-8

33% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-4

67% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-742%

W L L L L L L W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-833%

L L L L L L L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-467%

O O U U O O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 14	vsCCU	W 74-67	-7.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 19	vsUSA	L 65-71	-2.5	L −8.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 24	@ARST	L 63-74	+4.5	L −6.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsNDSU	L 43-56	+3.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 99
Dec 1	vsUNA	L 66-73	-6.5	L −13.5	134.5	O 139
Dec 13	@GAST	L 73-77	-3.5	L −7.5	139.5	O 150
Dec 17	vsEKU	L 59-62	-2.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 20	@ETSU	W 81-75	+9.5	W +15.5	134.5	O 156
Dec 29	vsWKU	W 78-67	+2.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 145
Jan 2	@DEL	W 67-64	-4.5	L −1.5	126.5	O 131
Jan 4	@LIB	L 69-78	+9.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 7	vsFIU	W 71-64	-1.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

−0.5

USA

L 65-71

−8.5

ARST

L 63-74

−6.5

NDSU

L 43-56

−9.5

UNA

L 66-73

−13.5

GAST

L 73-77

−7.5

EKU

L 59-62

−5.5

ETSU

W 81-75

+15.5

WKU

W 78-67

+13.5

DEL

W 67-64

−1.5

LIB

L 69-78

+0.5

FIU

W 71-64

+5.5

covered 4didn’t cover 8avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

+1.5

USA

L 65-71

+0.5

ARST

L 63-74

−18.5

NDSU

L 43-56

−43.5

UNA

L 66-73

+4.5

GAST

L 73-77

+10.5

EKU

L 59-62

−21.5

ETSU

W 81-75

+21.5

WKU

W 78-67

+2.5

DEL

W 67-64

+4.5

LIB

L 69-78

+12.5

FIU

W 71-64

−15.5

over 8under 4avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Kennesaw St

12 games played

Straight up

6-6

50% wins

Against the spread

7-5

58% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-5

58% overs · avg +2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-650%

W L W L W W W L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

7-558%

W L W L W L W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-558%

U O O O O O O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@FAMU	W 92-72	-11.5	W +8.5	166.5	U 164
Nov 16	vsUSF	L 89-108	+7.5	L −11.5	177.5	O 197
Nov 24	vsRICE	W 89-84	-4.5	W +0.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 25	vsORU	L 83-91	-8.5	L −16.5	166.5	O 174
Nov 26	@FGCU	W 102-100	+1.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 202
Dec 2	vsJKST	W 88-73	-15.5	L −0.5	157.5	O 161
Dec 6	vsGAST	W 92-69	-14.5	W +8.5	158.5	O 161
Dec 17	@MTSU	L 67-68	+3.5	W +2.5	160.5	U 135
Dec 21	vsALA	L 81-92	+20.5	W +9.5	182.5	U 173
Jan 2	@LIB	L 73-81	+7.5	L −0.5	158.5	U 154
Jan 4	@DEL	L 52-67	-8.5	L −23.5	148.5	U 119
Jan 7	vsMOST	W 90-80	-6.5	W +3.5	152.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAMU

W 92-72

+8.5

USF

L 89-108

−11.5

RICE

W 89-84

+0.5

ORU

L 83-91

−16.5

FGCU

W 102-100

+3.5

JKST

W 88-73

−0.5

GAST

W 92-69

+8.5

MTSU

L 67-68

+2.5

ALA

L 81-92

+9.5

LIB

L 73-81

−0.5

DEL

L 52-67

−23.5

MOST

W 90-80

+3.5

covered 7didn’t cover 5avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAMU

W 92-72

−2.5

USF

L 89-108

+19.5

RICE

W 89-84

+13.5

ORU

L 83-91

+7.5

FGCU

W 102-100

+41.5

JKST

W 88-73

+3.5

GAST

W 92-69

+2.5

MTSU

L 67-68

−25.5

ALA

L 81-92

−9.5

LIB

L 73-81

−4.5

DEL

L 52-67

−29.5

MOST

W 90-80

+17.5

over 7under 5avg +2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Kennesaw State Owls

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Jax State

Kennesaw St

Jax State

Kennesaw St