Kennesaw State Owls at Liberty Flames: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Jan 2, 7:00 PM ETLiberty Arena (VA) · at Liberty · Conference game

Final

#160LIBLiberty81▲ winner

Closing lineLIB -7.5✓ LIB covered by 0.5

Closing total158.5Under by 4.5

Season records: Kennesaw St and Liberty
KENN	This season	LIB
5-4	Record	6-3
6-3	ATS	4-5
6-3	O/U	5-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: KENN 77–82 LIB · ✓ LIB (66%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
KENN	33	40	73
LIB	46	35	81

1st half: KENN 33, LIB 46 (LIB by 13). The model had LIB by 2.6 and a total of 74.5 (actual 79).

Team stats

KENN		LIB
27-80 34%	Field goals	27-53 51%
10-36 28%	3-pointers	8-21 38%
9-13 69%	Free throws	19-24 79%
49 25 off	Rebounds	33 4 off
15	Assists	15
8	Steals	9
2	Blocks	8
13	Turnovers	12
20	Fouls	14
32	Points in paint	32
2	Fast-break points	10

Players

KENN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ramone Seals F	36	13	9	0	5-14	3-7
Simeon Cottle G	36	22	3	4	8-23	5-15
Braedan Lue F	23	11	9	0	4-14	0-2
Trey Simpson F	20	0	2	0	0-4	0-4
Amir Taylor F	16	9	3	0	3-4	0-0
Bench
Frankquon Sherman F	29	8	12	2	3-8	1-5
Darius Washington III G	27	7	3	9	3-8	0-2
Kaden Rickard G	7	3	1	0	1-3	1-1
Perry Smith Jr. C	6	0	1	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Brendan Tousignaut, Nigel Thomas, Dozie Onyirimba, Jamil Miller, Jaden Harris, RJ Johnson, Davin Cosby Jr., Eric Holland, Charles Stone, Chase Clemmons

LIB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brett Decker Jr. G	35	13	3	1	3-7	3-6
Kaden Metheny G	35	10	2	4	3-8	2-6
Colin Porter G	33	18	4	3	5-9	2-4
Zach Cleveland F	32	20	7	3	9-13	0-0
JJ Harper G	25	12	1	2	4-7	1-3
Bench
Josh Smith F	19	6	6	1	2-6	0-1
Zander Carter G	11	2	3	0	1-3	0-1
Zander Yates F	10	0	2	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Drew Grimes, Torr Sorensen, Isaiah Ihnen, Brady Kester, TJ Drain, Ryan Jones Jr., JC Shirer Jr.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	LIB -7.5	LIB -4.6	KENN +2.9	L LIB covered
Total	158.5	159.2	Over 0.7	L Under
Projected score	—	KENN 77.3 · LIB 81.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LIB -2.6	LIB -13.0
1H total	74.5	79
1H projected score	KENN 36 · LIB 38.6	KENN 33 · LIB 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENN WLWWW	6-3	67%	3-0	3-1
LIB LWLWL	4-5	44%	3-0	3-4

Venue/role: KENN away, as underdog; LIB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENN OOOUU	6-3	67%	5-4
LIB UUUUO	5-4	56%	6-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENNlast 9	5-4 56%	6-3 67%	6-3 67%
LIBlast 9	6-3 67%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

KENN 3–4 LIBLIB leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · KENN 5-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 14, 2024-25	KENN 79 vs LIB 81	LIB -6.5	KENN W
Mar 2, 2024-25	KENN 85 @ LIB 80	LIB -8.5	KENN W
Jan 30, 2024-25	LIB 76 @ KENN 68	KENN +3.5	LIB W
Mar 5, 2022-23	LIB 66 @ KENN 67	KENN +5.5	KENN W
Feb 16, 2022-23	LIB 81 @ KENN 88	KENN +5.5	KENN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kennesaw St

9 games played

Straight up

5-4

56% wins

Against the spread

6-3

67% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-3

67% overs · avg +5.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-456%

W L W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-367%

W L W L W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-367%

U O O O O O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@FAMU	W 92-72	-11.5	W +8.5	166.5	U 164
Nov 16	vsUSF	L 89-108	+7.5	L −11.5	177.5	O 197
Nov 24	vsRICE	W 89-84	-4.5	W +0.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 25	vsORU	L 83-91	-8.5	L −16.5	166.5	O 174
Nov 26	@FGCU	W 102-100	+1.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 202
Dec 2	vsJKST	W 88-73	-15.5	L −0.5	157.5	O 161
Dec 6	vsGAST	W 92-69	-14.5	W +8.5	158.5	O 161
Dec 17	@MTSU	L 67-68	+3.5	W +2.5	160.5	U 135
Dec 21	vsALA	L 81-92	+20.5	W +9.5	182.5	U 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAMU

W 92-72

+8.5

USF

L 89-108

−11.5

RICE

W 89-84

+0.5

ORU

L 83-91

−16.5

FGCU

W 102-100

+3.5

JKST

W 88-73

−0.5

GAST

W 92-69

+8.5

MTSU

L 67-68

+2.5

ALA

L 81-92

+9.5

covered 6didn’t cover 3avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAMU

W 92-72

−2.5

USF

L 89-108

+19.5

RICE

W 89-84

+13.5

ORU

L 83-91

+7.5

FGCU

W 102-100

+41.5

JKST

W 88-73

+3.5

GAST

W 92-69

+2.5

MTSU

L 67-68

−25.5

ALA

L 81-92

−9.5

over 6under 3avg +5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Liberty

9 games played

Straight up

6-3

67% wins

Against the spread

4-5

44% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-4

56% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-367%

W W W L L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-544%

W W L L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-456%

O O O O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsCOFC	W 90-75	-9.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 165
Nov 9	vsFAU	W 88-68	-7.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsUVM	W 79-73	-8.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsTOW	L 69-72	-6.5	L −9.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 26	vsBRAD	L 64-74	-4.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 138
Dec 6	vsCOPP	W 92-50	-30.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 142
Dec 10	@NCSU	L 45-85	+12.5	L −27.5	149.5	U 130
Dec 20	@DAY	W 64-61	+9.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 125
Dec 28	@FIU	W 97-94	-4.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+5.5

FAU

W 88-68

+12.5

UVM

W 79-73

−2.5

TOW

L 69-72

−9.5

BRAD

L 64-74

−14.5

COPP

W 92-50

+11.5

NCSU

L 45-85

−27.5

DAY

W 64-61

+12.5

FIU

W 97-94

−1.5

covered 4didn’t cover 5avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+19.5

FAU

W 88-68

+3.5

UVM

W 79-73

+10.5

TOW

L 69-72

+3.5

BRAD

L 64-74

−6.5

COPP

W 92-50

−1.5

NCSU

L 45-85

−19.5

DAY

W 64-61

−17.5

FIU

W 97-94

+38.5

over 5under 4avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kennesaw State Owls at Liberty Flames

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Kennesaw St

Liberty

Kennesaw St

Liberty