UD Arena · at Dayton
Closing line
DAY -9.5✓ LIB covered by 12.5
DAY -9.5✓ LIB covered by 12.5Closing total142.5Under by 17.5
 LIB | This season | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 9-3 |
| 3-4 | ATS | 6-6 |
| 4-3 | O/U | 6-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LIB 67–78 DAY · ✗ DAY (82%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 29 | 35 | 64 |
| DAY | 33 | 28 | 61 |
1st half: LIB 29, DAY 33 (DAY by 4). The model had DAY by 6.2 and a total of 68.0 (actual 62).
Team stats
| LIB | DAY | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-54 48% | Field goals | 20-53 38% |
| 8-18 44% | 3-pointers | 9-27 33% |
| 4-9 44% | Free throws | 12-15 80% |
| 28 4 off | Rebounds | 37 11 off |
| 14 | Assists | 11 |
| 7 | Steals | 3 |
| 4 | Blocks | 3 |
| 6 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 20 |
| 4 | Fast-break points | 2 |
Players
| LIB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Porter G | 38 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 5-8 | 3-4 |
| Zach Cleveland F | 37 | 12 | 16 | 7 | 5-9 | 0-0 |
| Kaden Metheny G | 35 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 7-14 | 2-5 |
| JJ Harper G | 34 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Brett Decker Jr. G | 27 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 6-12 | 3-8 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Josh Smith F | 14 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Zander Carter G | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Zander Yates F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ryan Jones Jr., JC Shirer Jr., TJ Drain, Drew Grimes, Torr Sorensen, Brady Kester, Isaiah Ihnen
| DAY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javon Bennett G | 34 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 5-14 | 3-8 |
| Keonte Jones G | 33 | 9 | 15 | 4 | 3-7 | 0-1 |
| Amal L'Etang F | 28 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 7-15 | 4-8 |
| De'Shayne Montgomery G | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-4 | 0-3 |
| Jordan Derkack G | 20 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Bryce Heard G | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Jacob Conner F | 16 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Sean Pouedet G | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jaiun Simon F | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Malcolm Thomas F | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Evan Dickey, Will Maxwell, Makai Grant, Damon Friery, Jaron McKie, Adam Njie
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDAY -9.5
no move
CloseDAY -9.5
No change since the open
Total
Open143.5
▼ 1
Close142.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
LIB +425 · DAY -575
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DAY -9.5 · unchangedmodel DAY -10.5
model DAY -10.5
Opened 143.5 · closed 142.5 · moved 1 downmodel 145.5
model 145.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | DAY -9.5 | DAY -10.6 | DAY +1.1 | L LIB covered |
| Total | 142.5 | 145.3 | Over 2.8 | L Under |
| Projected score | — | LIB 67.3 · DAY 77.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | DAY -6.2 | DAY -4.0 |
| 1H total | 68.0 | 62 |
| 1H projected score | LIB 30.9 · DAY 37.1 | LIB 29 · DAY 33 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIBlast 7 | 4-3 57% | 3-4 43% | 4-3 57% |
| DAY | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Liberty
7 games played
Straight up
4-3
57% wins
Against the spread
3-4
43% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-3
57% overs · avg +1.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 | vs COFC | W 90-75 | -9.5 | W +5.5 | 145.5 | O 165 |
| Nov 9 | vs FAU | W 88-68 | -7.5 | W +12.5 | 152.5 | O 156 |
| Nov 24 | vs UVM | W 79-73 | -8.5 | L −2.5 | 141.5 | O 152 |
| Nov 25 | vs TOW | L 69-72 | -6.5 | L −9.5 | 137.5 | O 141 |
| Nov 26 | vs BRAD | L 64-74 | -4.5 | L −14.5 | 144.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 6 | vs COPP | W 92-50 | -30.5 | W +11.5 | 143.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 10 | @ NCSU | L 45-85 | +12.5 | L −27.5 | 149.5 | U 130 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vsCOFC
COFCW 90-75
+5.5
9
vsFAU
FAUW 88-68
+12.5
24
vsUVM
UVMW 79-73
−2.5
25
vsTOW
TOWL 69-72
−9.5
26
vsBRAD
BRADL 64-74
−14.5
6
vsCOPP
COPPW 92-50
+11.5
10
@NCSU
NCSUL 45-85
−27.5
covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsCOFC
COFCW 90-75
+19.5
9
vsFAU
FAUW 88-68
+3.5
24
vsUVM
UVMW 79-73
+10.5
25
vsTOW
TOWL 69-72
+3.5
26
vsBRAD
BRADL 64-74
−6.5
6
vsCOPP
COPPW 92-50
−1.5
10
@NCSU
NCSUL 45-85
−19.5
over 4under 3avg +1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Dayton
12 games played
Straight up
9-3
75% wins
Against the spread
6-6
50% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
6-6
50% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CAN | W 88-48 | -25.5 | W +14.5 | 142.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 8 | vs UMBC | W 77-71 | -25.5 | L −19.5 | 154.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 11 | @ CIN | L 62-74 | +5.5 | L −6.5 | 147.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 15 | vs BCU | W 91-82 | -21.5 | L −12.5 | 148.5 | O 173 |
| Nov 19 | @ MARQ | W 77-71 | +6.5 | W +12.5 | 151.5 | U 148 |
| Nov 22 | vs NCCU | W 74-55 | -29.5 | L −10.5 | 146.5 | U 129 |
| Nov 27 | vs GTWN | W 84-79 | -1.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 28 | vs BYU | L 79-83 | +9.5 | W +5.5 | 150.5 | O 162 |
| Dec 2 | vs ETSU | W 88-71 | -11.5 | W +5.5 | 140.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 6 | vs UVA | L 73-86 | +5.5 | L −7.5 | 147.5 | O 159 |
| Dec 13 | vs UNF | W 84-61 | -30.5 | L −7.5 | 159.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 16 | vs FSU | W 97-69 | -6.5 | W +21.5 | 162.5 | O 166 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
+14.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−19.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−6.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
−12.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
+12.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−10.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+3.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+5.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+5.5
6
vsUVA
UVAL 73-86
−7.5
13
vsUNF
UNFW 84-61
−7.5
16
vsFSU
FSUW 97-69
+21.5
covered 6didn’t cover 6avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCAN
CANW 88-48
−6.5
8
vsUMBC
UMBCW 77-71
−6.5
11
@CIN
CINL 62-74
−11.5
15
vsBCU
BCUW 91-82
+24.5
19
@MARQ
MARQW 77-71
−3.5
22
vsNCCU
NCCUW 74-55
−17.5
27
vsGTWN
GTWNW 84-79
+17.5
28
vsBYU
BYUL 79-83
+11.5
2
vsETSU
ETSUW 88-71
+18.5
6
vsUVA
UVAL 73-86
+11.5
13
vsUNF
UNFW 84-61
−14.5
16
vsFSU
FSUW 97-69
+3.5
over 6under 6avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Liberty
4-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ NC State45–85
- Wvs Coppin St92–50
- Lvs Bradley64–74
- Lvs Towson69–72
- Wvs Vermont79–73
A week or more of rest.
Dayton
9-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Florida St97–69
- Wvs North Florida84–61
- Lvs Virginia73–86
- Wvs ETSU88–71
- Lvs BYU79–83
4 days since their last game.