Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Jacksonville State Gamecocks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 17, 5:00 PM ETPete Mathews Coliseum · at Jax State · Conference game

Final

#198JXSTJax State64▲ winner

Closing lineJXST -4.5✓ LT covered by 0.5

Closing total127.5Under by 3.5

Season records: Louisiana Tech and Jax State
LT	This season	JXST
7-7	Record	5-9
6-8	ATS	4-10
6-8	O/U	9-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LT 62–65 JXST · ✓ JXST (59%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LT	27	33	60
JXST	34	30	64

1st half: LT 27, JXST 34 (JXST by 7). The model had JXST by 1.5 and a total of 59.3 (actual 61).

Team stats

LT		JXST
22-56 39%	Field goals	20-49 41%
4-17 24%	3-pointers	10-23 43%
12-13 92%	Free throws	14-18 78%
36 15 off	Rebounds	28 9 off
5	Assists	11
5	Steals	7
4	Blocks	2
10	Turnovers	11
17	Fouls	16
34	Points in paint	20
8	Fast-break points	4

Players

LT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
DJ Dudley G	40	25	3	2	9-22	3-6
Jaylen Fenner G	37	6	6	1	1-2	0-1
Avery Thomas II F	29	13	5	1	4-13	1-5
Melian Martinez C	24	4	6	0	2-3	0-0
AJ Bates G	23	4	0	1	2-8	0-2
Bench
Will Allen F	22	2	5	0	1-3	0-2
Kylan Howze F	16	4	2	0	2-2	0-0
Scooter Williams G	9	2	1	0	1-3	0-1

Did not play: Keegan Rowell, Jermaurhiyun Anderson, Will Jeffress, A'Meir Williams, Lachlan Thompson, Kaden Cooper, Sir Issac Herron

JXST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
AC Bryant G	35	15	3	1	5-12	4-8
Mostapha El Moutaouakkil G	31	18	6	2	5-14	2-5
Jacoby Hill G	30	8	3	4	3-7	0-3
Iaroslav Niagu F	26	1	5	1	0-1	0-0
Jamar Franklin G	25	9	3	0	3-5	3-5
Bench
Emondrek Erkins-Ford F	27	11	4	0	4-8	1-2
Jaye Nash G	17	2	3	3	0-1	0-0
Marcus Fitzgerald Jr. G	7	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Toby Nnadozie G	2	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Connor Loy, Jordan Vick, Aidan Driggers, Ben Vungo, Thomas Tut, Aitor Anabitarte

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	JXST -4.5	JXST -2.7	LT +1.8	W LT covered
Total	127.5	126.4	Under 1.1	W Under
Projected score	—	LT 61.8 · JXST 64.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	JXST -1.5	JXST -7.0
1H total	59.3	61
1H projected score	LT 28.9 · JXST 30.4	LT 27 · JXST 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT LWLLW	6-8	43%	1-5	2-6
JXST LWWLL	4-10	29%	2-5	1-7

Venue/role: LT away, as underdog; JXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT OUUOU	6-8	43%	7-7
JXST OOUOU	9-5	64%	5-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
JXST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LT 2–2 JXSTSeries tied · 4 games since 2021-22 · JXST has won the last 2 meetings · LT 1-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 15, 2024-25	JXST 70 @ LT 68	LT -3.5	JXST W
Jan 16, 2024-25	LT 61 @ JXST 63	JXST +2.5	JXST W
Feb 15, 2023-24	JXST 58 @ LT 63	LT -10.5	JXST W
Jan 20, 2023-24	LT 74 @ JXST 57	JXST +3.5	LT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Louisiana Tech

14 games played

Straight up

7-7

50% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg −2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-8

43% overs · avg −8.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-750%

L W L W W L W L W L L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-843%

L W L L W L W L W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-843%

U U U O O O U U O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@NEV	L 50-77	+9.5	L −17.5	136.5	U 127
Nov 15	vsJKST	W 68-51	-8.5	W +8.5	146.5	U 119
Nov 19	@INST	L 51-60	+3.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 111
Nov 26	vsINST	W 75-73	-2.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 29	vsALCN	W 83-58	-16.5	W +8.5	137.5	O 141
Dec 3	@GASO	L 69-77	+1.5	L −6.5	145.5	O 146
Dec 13	vsUL	W 65-44	-9.5	W +11.5	126.5	U 109
Dec 17	@TULN	L 53-61	+4.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 114
Dec 29	vsUTEP	W 75-63	-2.5	W +9.5	130.5	O 138
Jan 2	@MTSU	L 51-88	+6.5	L −30.5	134.5	O 139
Jan 4	@WKU	L 61-66	+9.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 127
Jan 8	vsLIB	L 56-72	+4.5	L −11.5	135.5	U 128
Jan 10	vsDEL	W 70-68	-6.5	L −4.5	123.5	O 138
Jan 14	vsMTSU	W 59-58	+3.5	W +4.5	131.5	U 117

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NEV

L 50-77

−17.5

JKST

W 68-51

+8.5

INST

L 51-60

−5.5

INST

W 75-73

−0.5

ALCN

W 83-58

+8.5

GASO

L 69-77

−6.5

W 65-44

+11.5

TULN

L 53-61

−3.5

UTEP

W 75-63

+9.5

MTSU

L 51-88

−30.5

WKU

L 61-66

+4.5

LIB

L 56-72

−11.5

DEL

W 70-68

−4.5

MTSU

W 59-58

+4.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NEV

L 50-77

−9.5

JKST

W 68-51

−27.5

INST

L 51-60

−36.5

INST

W 75-73

+6.5

ALCN

W 83-58

+3.5

GASO

L 69-77

+0.5

W 65-44

−17.5

TULN

L 53-61

−26.5

UTEP

W 75-63

+7.5

MTSU

L 51-88

+4.5

WKU

L 61-66

−18.5

LIB

L 56-72

−7.5

DEL

W 70-68

+14.5

MTSU

W 59-58

−14.5

over 6under 8avg −8.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Jax State

14 games played

Straight up

5-9

36% wins

Against the spread

4-10

29% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-5

64% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-936%

W L L L L L L W W W L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-1029%

L L L L L L L W W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-564%

O O U U O O U O O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 14	vsCCU	W 74-67	-7.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 141
Nov 19	vsUSA	L 65-71	-2.5	L −8.5	135.5	O 136
Nov 24	@ARST	L 63-74	+4.5	L −6.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsNDSU	L 43-56	+3.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 99
Dec 1	vsUNA	L 66-73	-6.5	L −13.5	134.5	O 139
Dec 13	@GAST	L 73-77	-3.5	L −7.5	139.5	O 150
Dec 17	vsEKU	L 59-62	-2.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 20	@ETSU	W 81-75	+9.5	W +15.5	134.5	O 156
Dec 29	vsWKU	W 78-67	+2.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 145
Jan 2	@DEL	W 67-64	-4.5	L −1.5	126.5	O 131
Jan 4	@LIB	L 69-78	+9.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 147
Jan 7	vsFIU	W 71-64	-1.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 135
Jan 10	@KENN	L 82-88	+5.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 170
Jan 14	vsSHSU	L 62-77	-1.5	L −16.5	150.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

−0.5

USA

L 65-71

−8.5

ARST

L 63-74

−6.5

NDSU

L 43-56

−9.5

UNA

L 66-73

−13.5

GAST

L 73-77

−7.5

EKU

L 59-62

−5.5

ETSU

W 81-75

+15.5

WKU

W 78-67

+13.5

DEL

W 67-64

−1.5

LIB

L 69-78

+0.5

FIU

W 71-64

+5.5

KENN

L 82-88

−0.5

SHSU

L 62-77

−16.5

covered 4didn’t cover 10avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CCU

W 74-67

+1.5

USA

L 65-71

+0.5

ARST

L 63-74

−18.5

NDSU

L 43-56

−43.5

UNA

L 66-73

+4.5

GAST

L 73-77

+10.5

EKU

L 59-62

−21.5

ETSU

W 81-75

+21.5

WKU

W 78-67

+2.5

DEL

W 67-64

+4.5

LIB

L 69-78

+12.5

FIU

W 71-64

−15.5

KENN

L 82-88

+20.5

SHSU

L 62-77

−11.5

over 9under 5avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Louisiana Tech

Jax State

Louisiana Tech

Jax State