Xavier Musketeers vs UConn Huskies: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Mar 12, 7:00 PM ETMadison Square Garden · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament

#49XAVXavier68final

Final

#6CONNUConn AP #693▲ winner

Closing lineCONN -17.5✓ CONN covered by 7.5

Closing total150.5Over by 10.5

Season records: Xavier and UConn
XAV	This season	CONN
15-17	Record	27-4
16-16	ATS	10-21
23-9	O/U	16-15

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: XAV 70–83 CONN · ✓ CONN (89%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
XAV	30	38	68
CONN	50	43	93

1st half: XAV 30, CONN 50 (CONN by 20). The model had CONN by 8.2 and a total of 71.5 (actual 80).

Team stats

XAV		CONN
19-51 37%	Field goals	35-61 57%
9-28 32%	3-pointers	12-32 38%
21-33 64%	Free throws	11-13 85%
28 13 off	Rebounds	40 12 off
6	Assists	18
6	Steals	7
2	Blocks	5
10	Turnovers	10
14	Fouls	20
16	Points in paint	42
6	Fast-break points	12

Players

XAV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tre Carroll F	34	12	5	1	2-10	0-4
Jovan Milicevic F	33	6	3	2	2-9	1-6
Filip Borovicanin F	33	22	4	1	7-14	3-7
Malik Messina-Moore G	32	5	3	1	1-7	1-5
All Wright G	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Roddie Anderson G	23	15	2	1	5-6	3-4
Isaiah Walker G	20	5	2	0	2-3	1-2
Anthony Robinson F	9	2	3	0	0-1	0-0
Pape N'Diaye F	8	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Ian Sabourin F	1	1	0	0	0-0	0-0
Henry Thole F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Luke Naser, Gabriel Pozzato, Mier Panoam, Michael Wolf, Kason Westphal

CONN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braylon Mullins G	33	9	3	3	4-9	1-6
Alex Karaban F	30	15	5	4	5-10	3-8
Tarris Reed Jr. C	27	17	14	2	8-12	0-0
Solo Ball G	25	19	4	2	5-12	4-10
Silas Demary Jr. G	22	9	2	2	4-7	1-3
Bench
Malachi Smith G	23	6	3	2	2-2	2-2
Jayden Ross F	22	9	4	3	4-6	1-3
Eric Reibe C	14	9	4	0	3-3	0-0
Uros Paunovic G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Jacob Furphy G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Alec Millender G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Dwayne Koroma F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jaylin Stewart, Jacob Ross, Rrezon Elezaj

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CONN -17.5	CONN -14.0	XAV +3.5	L CONN covered
Total	150.5	152.9	Over 2.4	W Over
Projected score	—	XAV 69.5 · CONN 83.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CONN -8.2	CONN -20.0
1H total	71.5	80
1H projected score	XAV 31.7 · CONN 39.8	XAV 30 · CONN 50

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
XAV LWLLW	16-16	50%	3-0	12-9
CONN LWWLL	10-21	32%	1-2	10-21

Venue/role: XAV neutral site, as underdog; CONN neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
XAV OOOOO	23-9	72%	15-17
CONN OUUOU	16-15	52%	27-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
XAV	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	9-1 90%
CONN	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22

XAV 4–7 CONNCONN leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · CONN has won the last 2 meetings · XAV 5-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 3, 2025-26	XAV 60 @ CONN 92	CONN -16.5	CONN W
Dec 31, 2025-26	CONN 90 @ XAV 67	XAV +11.5	CONN W
Jan 25, 2024-25	CONN 72 @ XAV 76	XAV -1.5	XAV W
Dec 18, 2024-25	XAV 89 @ CONN 94	CONN -13.5	XAV W
Mar 14, 2023-24	XAV 60 vs CONN 87	CONN -15.5	CONN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Xavier

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

23-9

72% overs · avg +5.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

W W L L W L W W W W W L W L L L W W L L L W L L W L L L W L L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

L L L L W W W W L W L L W L L W W W W W L L L W W W L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

23-972%

U U U U O U O O O O U O O O O U O O O O O U O O O O U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRST	W 66-62	-12.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 128
Nov 6	vsLEM	W 74-69	-24.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 143
Nov 10	vsSCU	L 68-87	-3.5	L −22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 14	@IOWA	L 62-81	+15.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 143
Nov 18	vsODU	W 99-69	-10.5	W +19.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 21	vsUGA	L 77-78	+10.5	W +9.5	165.5	U 155
Nov 23	vsWVU	W 78-68	+5.5	W +15.5	140.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsAMCC	W 88-67	-13.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 155
Dec 1	vsSFPA	W 96-74	-27.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 5	vsCIN	W 79-74	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 12	vsMOST	W 75-57	-18.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 132
Dec 17	vsCREI	L 57-98	-2.5	L −43.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 20	@GTWN	W 80-77	+4.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 157
Dec 31	vsCONN	L 67-90	+11.5	L −11.5	144.5	O 157
Jan 3	@DEP	L 77-86	+2.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 163
Jan 7	@MARQ	L 65-66	+5.5	W +4.5	157.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsPROV	W 97-84	+1.5	W +14.5	165.5	O 181
Jan 14	vsBTLR	W 89-75	+1.5	W +15.5	161.5	O 164
Jan 21	@CREI	L 93-94	+8.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 187
Jan 24	vsSJU	L 83-88	+8.5	W +3.5	159.5	O 171
Jan 28	@HALL	L 68-86	+5.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 31	vsDEP	W 68-66	-4.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 134
Feb 3	@CONN	L 60-92	+16.5	L −15.5	147.5	O 152
Feb 9	@SJU	L 82-87	+16.5	W +11.5	159.5	O 169
Feb 14	vsMARQ	W 96-88	-1.5	W +6.5	157.5	O 184
Feb 17	vsVILL	L 89-92	+4.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 181
Feb 21	@BTLR	L 75-80	+4.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 155
Feb 25	@PROV	L 84-94	+5.5	L −4.5	170.5	O 178
Feb 28	vsGTWN	W 91-84	-4.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 175
Mar 3	vsHALL	L 68-77	+1.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 145
Mar 7	@VILL	L 78-91	+11.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 169
Mar 11	vsMARQ	W 89-87	+4.5	W +6.5	157.5	O 176

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−8.5

LEM

W 74-69

−19.5

SCU

L 68-87

−22.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−3.5

ODU

W 99-69

+19.5

UGA

L 77-78

+9.5

WVU

W 78-68

+15.5

AMCC

W 88-67

+7.5

SFPA

W 96-74

−5.5

CIN

W 79-74

+6.5

MOST

W 75-57

−0.5

CREI

L 57-98

−43.5

GTWN

W 80-77

+7.5

CONN

L 67-90

−11.5

DEP

L 77-86

−6.5

MARQ

L 65-66

+4.5

PROV

W 97-84

+14.5

BTLR

W 89-75

+15.5

CREI

L 93-94

+7.5

SJU

L 83-88

+3.5

HALL

L 68-86

−12.5

DEP

W 68-66

−2.5

CONN

L 60-92

−15.5

SJU

L 82-87

+11.5

MARQ

W 96-88

+6.5

VILL

L 89-92

+1.5

BTLR

L 75-80

−0.5

PROV

L 84-94

−4.5

GTWN

W 91-84

+2.5

HALL

L 68-77

−7.5

VILL

L 78-91

−1.5

MARQ

W 89-87

+6.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−11.5

LEM

W 74-69

−13.5

SCU

L 68-87

−0.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−0.5

ODU

W 99-69

+17.5

UGA

L 77-78

−10.5

WVU

W 78-68

+5.5

AMCC

W 88-67

+8.5

SFPA

W 96-74

+17.5

CIN

W 79-74

+5.5

MOST

W 75-57

−19.5

CREI

L 57-98

+3.5

GTWN

W 80-77

+7.5

CONN

L 67-90

+12.5

DEP

L 77-86

+13.5

MARQ

L 65-66

−26.5

PROV

W 97-84

+15.5

BTLR

W 89-75

+2.5

CREI

L 93-94

+31.5

SJU

L 83-88

+11.5

HALL

L 68-86

+8.5

DEP

W 68-66

−16.5

CONN

L 60-92

+4.5

SJU

L 82-87

+9.5

MARQ

W 96-88

+26.5

VILL

L 89-92

+28.5

BTLR

L 75-80

−4.5

PROV

L 84-94

+7.5

GTWN

W 91-84

+19.5

HALL

L 68-77

+0.5

VILL

L 78-91

+15.5

MARQ

W 89-87

+18.5

over 23under 9avg +5.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

UConn

31 games played

Straight up

27-4

87% wins

Against the spread

10-21

32% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

27-487%

W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W W L W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

10-2132%

L W L L L L W W L L L W W W L L L L L L L W W L L L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1552%

U O U O U U U U O O U U U O U O U O U O O O O O O O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNHVN	W 79-55	-42.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 134
Nov 7	vsUML	W 110-47	-36.5	W +26.5	151.5	O 157
Nov 10	vsCOLU	W 89-62	-32.5	L −5.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsBYU	W 86-84	-6.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 170
Nov 19	vsARIZ	L 67-71	-4.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 138
Nov 23	vsBRY	W 72-49	-36.5	L −13.5	147.5	U 121
Nov 28	vsILL	W 74-61	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 135
Dec 2	@KU	W 61-56	-3.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 117
Dec 5	vsETAM	W 83-59	-36.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142
Dec 9	vsFLA	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 150
Dec 12	vsTEX	W 71-63	-11.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 134
Dec 16	vsBTLR	W 79-60	-15.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 139
Dec 21	@DEP	W 72-54	-12.5	W +5.5	133.5	U 126
Dec 31	@XAV	W 90-67	-11.5	W +11.5	144.5	O 157
Jan 4	vsMARQ	W 73-57	-17.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 7	@PROV	W 103-98	-9.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 201
Jan 10	vsDEP	W 72-60	-19.5	L −7.5	137.5	U 132
Jan 13	@HALL	W 69-64	-6.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 133
Jan 17	@GTWN	W 64-62	-11.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 126
Jan 24	vsVILL	W 75-67	-11.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 142
Jan 27	vsPROV	W 87-81	-15.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 168
Jan 31	@CREI	W 85-58	-6.5	W +20.5	142.5	O 143
Feb 3	vsXAV	W 92-60	-16.5	W +15.5	147.5	O 152
Feb 6	@SJU	L 72-81	-1.5	L −10.5	143.5	O 153
Feb 11	@BTLR	W 80-70	-11.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 150
Feb 14	vsGTWN	W 79-75	-16.5	L −12.5	138.5	O 154
Feb 18	vsCREI	L 84-91	-15.5	L −22.5	143.5	O 175
Feb 21	@VILL	W 73-63	-3.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsSJU	W 72-40	-5.5	W +26.5	145.5	U 112
Feb 28	vsHALL	W 71-67	-12.5	L −8.5	130.5	O 138
Mar 7	@MARQ	L 62-68	-9.5	L −15.5	143.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NHVN

W 79-55

−18.5

UML

W 110-47

+26.5

COLU

W 89-62

−5.5

BYU

W 86-84

−4.5

ARIZ

L 67-71

−8.5

BRY

W 72-49

−13.5

ILL

W 74-61

+8.5

W 61-56

+1.5

ETAM

W 83-59

−12.5

FLA

W 77-73

−0.5

TEX

W 71-63

−3.5

BTLR

W 79-60

+3.5

DEP

W 72-54

+5.5

XAV

W 90-67

+11.5

MARQ

W 73-57

−1.5

PROV

W 103-98

−4.5

DEP

W 72-60

−7.5

HALL

W 69-64

−1.5

GTWN

W 64-62

−9.5

VILL

W 75-67

−3.5

PROV

W 87-81

−9.5

CREI

W 85-58

+20.5

XAV

W 92-60

+15.5

SJU

L 72-81

−10.5

BTLR

W 80-70

−1.5

GTWN

W 79-75

−12.5

CREI

L 84-91

−22.5

VILL

W 73-63

+6.5

SJU

W 72-40

+26.5

HALL

W 71-67

−8.5

MARQ

L 62-68

−15.5

covered 10didn’t cover 21avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NHVN

W 79-55

−11.5

UML

W 110-47

+5.5

COLU

W 89-62

−4.5

BYU

W 86-84

+13.5

ARIZ

L 67-71

−18.5

BRY

W 72-49

−26.5

ILL

W 74-61

−15.5

W 61-56

−24.5

ETAM

W 83-59

+0.5

FLA

W 77-73

+4.5

TEX

W 71-63

−11.5

BTLR

W 79-60

−5.5

DEP

W 72-54

−7.5

XAV

W 90-67

+12.5

MARQ

W 73-57

−14.5

PROV

W 103-98

+48.5

DEP

W 72-60

−5.5

HALL

W 69-64

+0.5

GTWN

W 64-62

−15.5

VILL

W 75-67

+4.5

PROV

W 87-81

+15.5

CREI

W 85-58

+0.5

XAV

W 92-60

+4.5

SJU

L 72-81

+9.5

BTLR

W 80-70

+6.5

GTWN

W 79-75

+15.5

CREI

L 84-91

+31.5

VILL

W 73-63

−5.5

SJU

W 72-40

−33.5

HALL

W 71-67

+7.5

MARQ

L 62-68

−13.5

over 16under 15avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Xavier Musketeers vs UConn Huskies

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Xavier

UConn

Xavier

UConn