Xfinity Mobile Arena · at Villanova · Conference game
Closing line
CONN -3.5✓ CONN covered by 6.5
CONN -3.5✓ CONN covered by 6.5Closing total141.5Under by 5.5
| CONN | This season | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| 24-3 | Record | 21-5 |
| 8-19 | ATS | 17-9 |
| 15-12 | O/U | 16-10 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CONN 72–69 VILL · ✓ CONN (61%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 34 | 39 | 73 |
| VILL | 32 | 31 | 63 |
1st half: CONN 34, VILL 32 (CONN by 2). The model had CONN by 2.0 and a total of 66.1 (actual 66).
Team stats
| CONN | VILL | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-51 55% | Field goals | 24-59 41% |
| 6-19 32% | 3-pointers | 6-24 25% |
| 11-13 85% | Free throws | 9-14 64% |
| 37 10 off | Rebounds | 24 11 off |
| 19 | Assists | 12 |
| 3 | Steals | 8 |
| 8 | Blocks | 4 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 34 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 14 |
Players
| CONN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Karaban F | 34 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5-8 | 0-2 |
| Solo Ball G | 30 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4-8 | 1-4 |
| Silas Demary Jr. G | 29 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 3-12 | 1-5 |
| Braylon Mullins G | 25 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4-7 | 2-5 |
| Tarris Reed Jr. C | 23 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 5-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jayden Ross F | 17 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Eric Reibe C | 17 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Jaylin Stewart F | 13 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Malachi Smith G | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jacob Ross, Dwayne Koroma, Alec Millender, Jacob Furphy, Uros Paunovic, Rrezon Elezaj
| VILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hodge F | 34 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 5-9 | 2-5 |
| Tyler Perkins G | 32 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 6-13 | 2-5 |
| Duke Brennan F | 29 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Acaden Lewis G | 25 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 5-13 | 1-4 |
| Bryce Lindsay G | 20 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Malachi Palmer G | 18 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Devin Askew G | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-3 |
| Chris Jeffrey G | 13 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Braden Pierce C | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Zion Stanford, Tafara Gapare, Malcolm Flaggs, Wade Chiddick, Nico Onyekwere
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketCONN -3.5
ModelCONN -3.1
Model edgeVILL +0.4
L CONN covered
Total
Market141.5
Model141.2
Model edgeUnder 0.3
W Under
Projected score
CONN 72.2 · VILL 69
CONN 73 · VILL 63
Win probability
CONN 61%
1st half
Spread
CONN -2.0
CONN -2.0
Total
66.1
66 points
Projected score
CONN 34.1 · VILL 32.1
CONN 34 · VILL 32
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCONN -1.5
2 → CONN
CloseCONN -3.5
2 pts toward CONN
Total
Open139.5
▲ 2
Close141.5
Up 2 since the open
Moneyline
CONN -170 · VILL +142
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CONN -1.5 · closed CONN -3.5 · moved 2 toward CONNmodel CONN -3
model CONN -3
Opened 139.5 · closed 141.5 · moved 2 upmodel 141
model 141
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 8-2 80% | 2-8 20% | 9-1 90% |
| VILL | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22
CONN 8–3 VILLCONN leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · CONN has won the last 3 meetings · CONN 3-7-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2025-26 | VILL 67 @ CONN 75 | CONN -11.5 | VILL W |
| Mar 13, 2024-25 | VILL 56 vs CONN 73 | CONN -6.5 | CONN W |
| Feb 18, 2024-25 | VILL 59 @ CONN 66 | CONN -8.5 | VILL W |
| Jan 8, 2024-25 | CONN 66 @ VILL 68 | VILL -1.5 | VILL W |
| Feb 24, 2023-24 | VILL 54 @ CONN 78 | CONN -12.5 | CONN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UConn
27 games played
Straight up
24-3
89% wins
Against the spread
8-19
30% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
15-12
56% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NHVN | W 79-55 | -42.5 | L −18.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 7 | vs UML | W 110-47 | -36.5 | W +26.5 | 151.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 10 | vs COLU | W 89-62 | -32.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs BYU | W 86-84 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 19 | vs ARIZ | L 67-71 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 23 | vs BRY | W 72-49 | -36.5 | L −13.5 | 147.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vs ILL | W 74-61 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | @ KU | W 61-56 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 141.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 5 | vs ETAM | W 83-59 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 9 | vs FLA | W 77-73 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 12 | vs TEX | W 71-63 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 16 | vs BTLR | W 79-60 | -15.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | @ DEP | W 72-54 | -12.5 | W +5.5 | 133.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 31 | @ XAV | W 90-67 | -11.5 | W +11.5 | 144.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 4 | vs MARQ | W 73-57 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 7 | @ PROV | W 103-98 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 10 | vsDEP | W 72-60 | -19.5 | L −7.5 | 137.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 13 | @ HALL | W 69-64 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | O 133 |
| Jan 17 | @ GTWN | W 64-62 | -11.5 | L −9.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
| Jan 24 | vsVILL | W 75-67 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Jan 27 | vsPROV | W 87-81 | -15.5 | L −9.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 31 | @ CREI | W 85-58 | -6.5 | W +20.5 | 142.5 | O 143 |
| Feb 3 | vsXAV | W 92-60 | -16.5 | W +15.5 | 147.5 | O 152 |
| Feb 6 | @ SJU | L 72-81 | -1.5 | L −10.5 | 143.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 11 | @BTLR | W 80-70 | -11.5 | L −1.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Feb 14 | vsGTWN | W 79-75 | -16.5 | L −12.5 | 138.5 | O 154 |
| Feb 18 | vsCREI | L 84-91 | -15.5 | L −22.5 | 143.5 | O 175 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−18.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+26.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−5.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
−4.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−8.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−13.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
+8.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
+1.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
−12.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
−0.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−3.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
+3.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
+5.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+11.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−1.5
7
@PROV
PROVW 103-98
−4.5
10
vsDEP
DEPW 72-60
−7.5
13
@HALL
HALLW 69-64
−1.5
17
@GTWN
GTWNW 64-62
−9.5
24
vsVILL
VILLW 75-67
−3.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 87-81
−9.5
31
@CREI
CREIW 85-58
+20.5
3
vsXAV
XAVW 92-60
+15.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 72-81
−10.5
11
@BTLR
BTLRW 80-70
−1.5
14
vsGTWN
GTWNW 79-75
−12.5
18
vsCREI
CREIL 84-91
−22.5
covered 8didn’t cover 19avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−11.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+5.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−4.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
+13.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−18.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−26.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
−15.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
−24.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
+0.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
+4.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−11.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
−5.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
−7.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+12.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−14.5
7
@PROV
PROVW 103-98
+48.5
10
vsDEP
DEPW 72-60
−5.5
13
@HALL
HALLW 69-64
+0.5
17
@GTWN
GTWNW 64-62
−15.5
24
vsVILL
VILLW 75-67
+4.5
27
vsPROV
PROVW 87-81
+15.5
31
@CREI
CREIW 85-58
+0.5
3
vsXAV
XAVW 92-60
+4.5
6
@SJU
SJUL 72-81
+9.5
11
@BTLR
BTLRW 80-70
+6.5
14
vsGTWN
GTWNW 79-75
+15.5
18
vsCREI
CREIL 84-91
+31.5
over 15under 12avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Villanova
26 games played
Straight up
21-5
81% wins
Against the spread
17-9
65% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-10
62% overs · avg +1.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vsBYU | L 66-71 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 8 | vs QUC | W 94-74 | -17.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 11 | vs SHU | W 94-60 | -19.5 | W +14.5 | 160.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 15 | vs DUQ | W 87-77 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 19 | @ LAS | W 70-55 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 25 | vs ODU | W 89-75 | -22.5 | L −8.5 | 147.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 1 | vs TEM | W 74-56 | -14.5 | W +3.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 6 | vs PENN | W 90-63 | -18.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 9 | @ MICH | L 61-89 | +17.5 | L −10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | vs PITT | W 79-61 | -10.5 | W +7.5 | 138.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 19 | vs WIS | W 76-66 | +3.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 23 | @HALL | W 64-56 | +1.5 | W +9.5 | 135.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 31 | vsDEP | W 71-66 | -12.5 | L −7.5 | 139.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 3 | @BTLR | W 85-67 | +2.5 | W +20.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 7 | vsCREI | L 72-76 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 142.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 10 | @MARQ | W 76-73 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 13 | @PROV | W 88-82 | -2.5 | W +3.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 17 | vsSJU | L 79-86 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 21 | vsGTWN | W 66-51 | -8.5 | W +6.5 | 142.5 | U 117 |
| Jan 24 | @CONN | L 67-75 | +11.5 | W +3.5 | 137.5 | O 142 |
| Jan 30 | vsPROV | W 87-73 | -8.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 160 |
| Feb 4 | vsHALL | W 72-60 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 134.5 | U 132 |
| Feb 7 | @GTWN | W 80-73 | -2.5 | W +4.5 | 140.5 | O 153 |
| Feb 10 | vsMARQ | W 77-74 | -9.5 | L −6.5 | 144.5 | O 151 |
| Feb 14 | @CREI | W 80-69 | -1.5 | W +9.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Feb 17 | @XAV | W 92-89 | -4.5 | L −1.5 | 152.5 | O 181 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsBYU
BYUL 66-71
+4.5
8
vsQUC
QUCW 94-74
+2.5
11
vsSHU
SHUW 94-60
+14.5
15
vsDUQ
DUQW 87-77
−0.5
19
@LAS
LASW 70-55
+2.5
25
vsODU
ODUW 89-75
−8.5
1
vsTEM
TEMW 74-56
+3.5
6
vsPENN
PENNW 90-63
+8.5
9
@MICH
MICHL 61-89
−10.5
13
vsPITT
PITTW 79-61
+7.5
19
vsWIS
WISW 76-66
+13.5
23
@HALL
HALLW 64-56
+9.5
31
vsDEP
DEPW 71-66
−7.5
3
@BTLR
BTLRW 85-67
+20.5
7
vsCREI
CREIL 72-76
−8.5
10
@MARQ
MARQW 76-73
−0.5
13
@PROV
PROVW 88-82
+3.5
17
vsSJU
SJUL 79-86
−4.5
21
vsGTWN
GTWNW 66-51
+6.5
24
@CONN
CONNL 67-75
+3.5
30
vsPROV
PROVW 87-73
+5.5
4
vsHALL
HALLW 72-60
+6.5
7
@GTWN
GTWNW 80-73
+4.5
10
vsMARQ
MARQW 77-74
−6.5
14
@CREI
CREIW 80-69
+9.5
17
@XAV
XAVW 92-89
−1.5
covered 17didn’t cover 9avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBYU
BYUL 66-71
−16.5
8
vsQUC
QUCW 94-74
+17.5
11
vsSHU
SHUW 94-60
−6.5
15
vsDUQ
DUQW 87-77
+12.5
19
@LAS
LASW 70-55
−19.5
25
vsODU
ODUW 89-75
+16.5
1
vsTEM
TEMW 74-56
−16.5
6
vsPENN
PENNW 90-63
+2.5
9
@MICH
MICHL 61-89
−6.5
13
vsPITT
PITTW 79-61
+1.5
19
vsWIS
WISW 76-66
−10.5
23
@HALL
HALLW 64-56
−15.5
31
vsDEP
DEPW 71-66
−2.5
3
@BTLR
BTLRW 85-67
+2.5
7
vsCREI
CREIL 72-76
+5.5
10
@MARQ
MARQW 76-73
+2.5
13
@PROV
PROVW 88-82
+13.5
17
vsSJU
SJUL 79-86
+17.5
21
vsGTWN
GTWNW 66-51
−25.5
24
@CONN
CONNL 67-75
+4.5
30
vsPROV
PROVW 87-73
+2.5
4
vsHALL
HALLW 72-60
−2.5
7
@GTWN
GTWNW 80-73
+12.5
10
vsMARQ
MARQW 77-74
+6.5
14
@CREI
CREIW 80-69
+3.5
17
@XAV
XAVW 92-89
+28.5
over 16under 10avg +1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UConn
24-3 overall · 14-2 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Creighton84–91
- Wvs Georgetown79–75
- W@ Butler80–70
- L@ St John's72–81
- Wvs Xavier92–60
3 days since their last game.
Villanova
21-5 overall · 12-3 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Xavier92–89
- W@ Creighton80–69
- Wvs Marquette77–74
- W@ Georgetown80–73
- Wvs Seton Hall72–60
4 days since their last game.