Amica Mutual Pavilion · at Providence · Conference game
Closing line
CONN -9.5✓ PROV covered by 4.5
CONN -9.5✓ PROV covered by 4.5Closing total152.5Over by 48.5
| CONN | This season | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| 14-1 | Record | 8-6 |
| 6-9 | ATS | 8-6 |
| 5-10 | O/U | 9-5 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CONN 83–74 PROV · ✓ CONN (79%) won
Loading the game…
Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 37 | 52 | 14 | 103 |
| PROV | 47 | 42 | 9 | 98 |
1st half: CONN 37, PROV 47 (PROV by 10). The model had CONN by 5.6 and a total of 73.6 (actual 84).
Team stats
| CONN | PROV | |
|---|---|---|
| 35-71 49% | Field goals | 32-64 50% |
| 18-32 56% | 3-pointers | 14-24 58% |
| 15-18 83% | Free throws | 20-27 74% |
| 33 10 off | Rebounds | 37 10 off |
| 25 | Assists | 15 |
| 11 | Steals | 4 |
| 2 | Blocks | 2 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 17 |
| 19 | Fouls | 17 |
| 32 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| CONN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braylon Mullins G | 41 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 8-14 | 6-10 |
| Silas Demary Jr. G | 41 | 23 | 3 | 15 | 7-11 | 4-6 |
| Alex Karaban F | 41 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 8-18 | 5-9 |
| Tarris Reed Jr. C | 37 | 20 | 8 | 1 | 8-13 | 0-0 |
| Solo Ball G | 25 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 3-10 | 2-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylin Stewart F | 27 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Eric Reibe C | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Malachi Smith G | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jayden Ross F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Rrezon Elezaj, Jacob Furphy, Uros Paunovic, Alec Millender, Jacob Ross, Dwayne Koroma
| PROV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Floyd Jr. G | 30 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4-7 | 2-3 |
| Jamier Jones G | 29 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 6-9 | 3-4 |
| Jason Edwards G | 28 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3-9 | 2-4 |
| Oswin Erhunmwunse F | 27 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 4-8 | 0-0 |
| Jaylin Sellers G | 26 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Stefan Vaaks G | 36 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 3-9 | 2-7 |
| Ryan Mela G | 26 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 5-9 | 1-1 |
| Duncan Powell F | 13 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 4-7 | 3-4 |
| Cole Hargrove F | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jack Williams, Peteris Pinnis, Nilavan Daniels, Jaylen Harrell, Rich Barron, Daquan Davis
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCONN -9.5
no move
CloseCONN -9.5
No change since the open
Total
Open152.5
no move
Close152.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
CONN -575 · PROV +425
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CONN -9.5 · unchangedmodel CONN -9
model CONN -9
Opened 152.5 · unchangedmodel 157
model 157
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | CONN -9.5 | CONN -9.2 | PROV +0.3 | W PROV covered |
| Total | 152.5 | 157.1 | Over 4.6 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | CONN 83.1 · PROV 74 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | CONN -5.6 | PROV -10.0 |
| 1H total | 73.6 | 84 |
| 1H projected score | CONN 39.6 · PROV 34 | CONN 37 · PROV 47 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CONN | 10-0 100% | 5-5 50% | 3-7 30% |
| PROV | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
CONN 6–2 PROVCONN leads · 8 games since 2021-22 · CONN has won the last 6 meetings · CONN 4-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2024-25 | CONN 75 @ PROV 63 | PROV +6.5 | CONN W |
| Jan 5, 2024-25 | PROV 84 @ CONN 87 | CONN -14.5 | PROV W |
| Mar 9, 2023-24 | CONN 74 @ PROV 60 | PROV +8.5 | CONN W |
| Jan 31, 2023-24 | PROV 65 @ CONN 74 | CONN -13.5 | PROV W |
| Mar 9, 2022-23 | PROV 66 vs CONN 73 | CONN -6.5 | CONN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UConn
15 games played
Straight up
14-1
93% wins
Against the spread
6-9
40% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-10
33% overs · avg −6.9 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NHVN | W 79-55 | -42.5 | L −18.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 7 | vs UML | W 110-47 | -36.5 | W +26.5 | 151.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 10 | vs COLU | W 89-62 | -32.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs BYU | W 86-84 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 19 | vs ARIZ | L 67-71 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 23 | vs BRY | W 72-49 | -36.5 | L −13.5 | 147.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vs ILL | W 74-61 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | @ KU | W 61-56 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 141.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 5 | vs ETAM | W 83-59 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 9 | vs FLA | W 77-73 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 12 | vs TEX | W 71-63 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 16 | vs BTLR | W 79-60 | -15.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | @ DEP | W 72-54 | -12.5 | W +5.5 | 133.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 31 | @ XAV | W 90-67 | -11.5 | W +11.5 | 144.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 4 | vs MARQ | W 73-57 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−18.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+26.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−5.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
−4.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−8.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−13.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
+8.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
+1.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
−12.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
−0.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−3.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
+3.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
+5.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+11.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−1.5
covered 6didn’t cover 9avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−11.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+5.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−4.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
+13.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−18.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−26.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
−15.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
−24.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
+0.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
+4.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−11.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
−5.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
−7.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+12.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−14.5
over 5under 10avg −6.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Providence
14 games played
Straight up
8-6
57% wins
Against the spread
8-6
57% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line
Over / Under
9-5
64% overs · avg +10.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs HC | W 89-79 | -23.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 8 | vs VT | L 101-107 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | O 208 |
| Nov 11 | vs PENN | W 106-81 | -19.5 | W +5.5 | 172.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 14 | @ COLO | L 88-97 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 163.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 18 | vs UNH | W 98-66 | -29.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs PSU | W 77-65 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 165.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 27 | vs WIS | L 83-104 | +6.5 | L −14.5 | 166.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 28 | vsFLA | L 78-90 | +12.5 | W +0.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Dec 2 | vs FDU | W 94-64 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs URI | W 90-71 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs BRWN | W 86-79 | -19.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | @BTLR | L 110-113 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 223 |
| Dec 19 | vs HALL | L 67-72 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 3 | @ SJU | W 77-71 | +14.5 | W +20.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
−13.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
−8.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+5.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
−7.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
+8.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
−14.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
+0.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
+3.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+11.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
−12.5
13
@BTLR
BTLRL 110-113
+0.5
19
vsHALL
HALLL 67-72
−6.5
3
@SJU
SJUW 77-71
+20.5
covered 8didn’t cover 6avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
+15.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
+50.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+14.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
+21.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
−23.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
+20.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
−1.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
−4.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+1.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
+19.5
13
@BTLR
BTLRL 110-113
+58.5
19
vsHALL
HALLL 67-72
−13.5
3
@SJU
SJUW 77-71
−18.5
over 9under 5avg +10.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UConn
14-1 overall · 4-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Marquette73–57
- W@ Xavier90–67
- W@ DePaul72–54
- Wvs Butler79–60
- Wvs Texas71–63
3 days since their last game.
Providence
8-6 overall · 1-2 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ St John's77–71
- Lvs Seton Hall67–72
- L@ Butler110–113
- Wvs Brown86–79
- Wvs Rhode Island90–71
4 days since their last game.