Madison Square Garden · Neutral site
Closing line
CONN -4.5✓ FLA covered by 0.5
CONN -4.5✓ FLA covered by 0.5Closing total145.5Over by 4.5
 FLA | This season | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 8-1 |
| 2-6 | ATS | 3-6 |
| 2-6 | O/U | 3-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: FLA 77–75 CONN · ✗ FLA (56%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 32 | 41 | 73 |
| CONN | 39 | 38 | 77 |
1st half: FLA 32, CONN 39 (CONN by 7). The model had FLA by 1.1 and a total of 70.9 (actual 71).
Team stats
| FLA | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-59 42% | Field goals | 29-58 50% |
| 4-15 27% | 3-pointers | 8-18 44% |
| 19-27 70% | Free throws | 11-16 69% |
| 40 16 off | Rebounds | 28 7 off |
| 14 | Assists | 18 |
| 3 | Steals | 3 |
| 7 | Blocks | 3 |
| 12 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 19 | Fouls | 20 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 34 |
| 14 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| FLA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xaivian Lee G | 38 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 5-14 | 1-7 |
| Thomas Haugh F | 37 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 7-12 | 3-5 |
| Alex Condon F | 36 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 5-11 | 0-1 |
| Rueben Chinyelu C | 26 | 8 | 11 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-0 |
| Boogie Fland G | 22 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Urban Klavzar G | 18 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Micah Handlogten C | 13 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-0 |
| CJ Ingram G | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Viktor Mikic, Olivier Rioux, Alex Kovatchev, Alex Lloyd, Cooper Josefsberg, AJ Brown, Isaiah Brown
| CONN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Karaban F | 39 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 5-8 | 3-5 |
| Solo Ball G | 34 | 19 | 1 | 2 | 6-14 | 3-8 |
| Tarris Reed Jr. C | 24 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5-10 | 0-0 |
| Jaylin Stewart F | 23 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Silas Demary Jr. G | 20 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Malachi Smith G | 22 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Eric Reibe C | 15 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4-6 | 1-1 |
| Jayden Ross F | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Braylon Mullins G | 11 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Rrezon Elezaj, Jacob Ross, Uros Paunovic, Jacob Furphy, Alec Millender, Dwayne Koroma
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCONN -4.5
no move
CloseCONN -4.5
No change since the open
Total
Open145.5
no move
Close145.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
FLA +170 · CONN -205
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CONN -4.5 · unchangedmodel FLA -1.5
model FLA -1.5
Opened 145.5 · unchangedmodel 151.5
model 151.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | CONN -4.5 | FLA -1.6 | FLA +6.2 | W FLA covered |
| Total | 145.5 | 151.4 | Over 5.9 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | FLA 76.5 · CONN 74.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | FLA -1.1 | CONN -7.0 |
| 1H total | 70.9 | 71 |
| 1H projected score | FLA 36 · CONN 34.9 | FLA 32 · CONN 39 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLAlast 8 | 5-3 63% | 2-6 25% | 2-6 25% |
| CONNlast 9 | 8-1 89% | 3-6 33% | 3-6 33% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
FLA 1–1 CONNSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · FLA 0-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2024-25 | CONN 75 vs FLA 77 | FLA -9.5 | CONN W |
| Dec 7, 2022-23 | CONN 75 @ FLA 54 | FLA +4.5 | CONN W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Florida
8 games played
Straight up
5-3
63% wins
Against the spread
2-6
25% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-6
25% overs · avg −10.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs ARIZ | L 87-93 | -3.5 | L −9.5 | 164.5 | O 180 |
| Nov 6 | vs UNF | W 104-64 | -43.5 | L −3.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Nov 11 | vs FSU | W 78-76 | -17.5 | L −15.5 | 180.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 16 | vs MIA | W 82-68 | -10.5 | W +3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 21 | vs MRMK | W 80-45 | -36.5 | L −1.5 | 158.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 27 | vs TCU | L 80-84 | -11.5 | L −15.5 | 155.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 28 | vs PROV | W 90-78 | -12.5 | L −0.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Dec 2 | @ DUKE | L 66-67 | +9.5 | W +8.5 | 157.5 | U 133 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsARIZ
ARIZL 87-93
−9.5
6
vsUNF
UNFW 104-64
−3.5
11
vsFSU
FSUW 78-76
−15.5
16
vsMIA
MIAW 82-68
+3.5
21
vsMRMK
MRMKW 80-45
−1.5
27
vsTCU
TCUL 80-84
−15.5
28
vsPROV
PROVW 90-78
−0.5
2
@DUKE
DUKEL 66-67
+8.5
covered 2didn’t cover 6avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsARIZ
ARIZL 87-93
+15.5
6
vsUNF
UNFW 104-64
−1.5
11
vsFSU
FSUW 78-76
−26.5
16
vsMIA
MIAW 82-68
−21.5
21
vsMRMK
MRMKW 80-45
−33.5
27
vsTCU
TCUL 80-84
+8.5
28
vsPROV
PROVW 90-78
−1.5
2
@DUKE
DUKEL 66-67
−24.5
over 2under 6avg −10.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
UConn
9 games played
Straight up
8-1
89% wins
Against the spread
3-6
33% covers · avg −2.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-6
33% overs · avg −9.1 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NHVN | W 79-55 | -42.5 | L −18.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 7 | vs UML | W 110-47 | -36.5 | W +26.5 | 151.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 10 | vs COLU | W 89-62 | -32.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vs BYU | W 86-84 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 19 | vsARIZ | L 67-71 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 23 | vs BRY | W 72-49 | -36.5 | L −13.5 | 147.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vs ILL | W 74-61 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | @ KU | W 61-56 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 141.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 5 | vs ETAM | W 83-59 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−18.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+26.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−5.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
−4.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−8.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−13.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
+8.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
+1.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
−12.5
covered 3didn’t cover 6avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−11.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+5.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−4.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
+13.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−18.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−26.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
−15.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
−24.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
+0.5
over 3under 6avg −9.1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Florida
5-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Duke66–67
- Wvs Providence90–78
- Lvs TCU80–84
- Wvs Merrimack80–45
- Wvs Miami82–68
A week or more of rest.
UConn
8-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs East Texas A&M83–59
- W@ Kansas61–56
- Wvs Illinois74–61
- Wvs Bryant72–49
- Lvs Arizona67–71
4 days since their last game.