Florida Gators at Duke Blue Devils: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 7:30 PM ETCameron Indoor Stadium · at Duke

#1FLAFlorida AP #1566final

Final

#3DUKEDuke AP #467▲ winner

Closing lineDUKE -9.5✓ FLA covered by 8.5

Closing total157.5Under by 24.5

Season records: Florida and Duke
FLA	This season	DUKE
5-2	Record	8-0
1-6	ATS	6-2
2-5	O/U	1-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: FLA 76–81 DUKE · ✓ DUKE (65%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
FLA	24	42	66
DUKE	36	31	67

1st half: FLA 24, DUKE 36 (DUKE by 12). The model had DUKE by 2.6 and a total of 73.5 (actual 60).

Team stats

FLA		DUKE
25-67 37%	Field goals	25-56 45%
7-28 25%	3-pointers	7-26 27%
9-12 75%	Free throws	10-16 63%
44 20 off	Rebounds	33 11 off
4	Assists	13
7	Steals	7
2	Blocks	11
13	Turnovers	12
16	Fouls	14
32	Points in paint	34
7	Fast-break points	4

Players

FLA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Thomas Haugh F	40	24	6	1	9-15	2-5
Alex Condon F	37	12	10	0	4-11	0-3
Boogie Fland G	29	16	1	0	7-16	2-7
Rueben Chinyelu C	28	4	14	0	2-4	0-0
Xaivian Lee G	26	4	4	1	1-10	1-6
Bench
Urban Klavzar G	26	6	1	2	2-9	2-7
Micah Handlogten C	14	0	2	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: AJ Brown, Isaiah Brown, Alex Lloyd, Cooper Josefsberg, Alex Kovatchev, Olivier Rioux, CJ Ingram, Viktor Mikic

DUKE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cameron Boozer F	36	29	6	2	10-21	3-9
Caleb Foster G	34	6	5	2	2-7	1-4
Patrick Ngongba II C	34	11	5	5	4-6	2-3
Isaiah Evans G	29	13	1	1	5-14	1-8
Nik Khamenia F	12	0	2	1	0-2	0-1
Bench
Maliq Brown F	19	6	6	0	3-4	0-0
Dame Sarr F	17	0	2	0	0-1	0-1
Cayden Boozer G	10	2	0	2	1-1	0-0
Darren Harris G	9	0	3	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ifeanyi Ufochukwu, Sebastian Wilkins, Jack Scott, Cameron Sheffield

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DUKE -9.5	DUKE -4.5	FLA +5.0	W FLA covered
Total	157.5	157.1	Under 0.4	W Under
Projected score	—	FLA 76.3 · DUKE 80.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DUKE -2.6	DUKE -12.0
1H total	73.5	60
1H projected score	FLA 35.5 · DUKE 38.1	FLA 24 · DUKE 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FLA LWLLL	1-6	14%	—	—
DUKE WWWLL	6-2	75%	3-1	6-2

Venue/role: FLA away, as underdog; DUKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
FLA UUUOU	2-5	29%	5-2
DUKE UUUUU	1-7	13%	8-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FLAlast 7	5-2 71%	1-6 14%	2-5 29%
DUKElast 8	8-0 100%	6-2 75%	1-7 13%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Florida

7 games played

Straight up

5-2

71% wins

Against the spread

1-6

14% covers · avg −6.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-5

29% overs · avg −8.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-271%

L W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-614%

L L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-529%

O U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsARIZ	L 87-93	-3.5	L −9.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 6	vsUNF	W 104-64	-43.5	L −3.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 11	vsFSU	W 78-76	-17.5	L −15.5	180.5	U 154
Nov 16	vsMIA	W 82-68	-10.5	W +3.5	171.5	U 150
Nov 21	vsMRMK	W 80-45	-36.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 125
Nov 27	vsTCU	L 80-84	-11.5	L −15.5	155.5	O 164
Nov 28	vsPROV	W 90-78	-12.5	L −0.5	169.5	U 168

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARIZ

L 87-93

−9.5

UNF

W 104-64

−3.5

FSU

W 78-76

−15.5

MIA

W 82-68

+3.5

MRMK

W 80-45

−1.5

TCU

L 80-84

−15.5

PROV

W 90-78

−0.5

covered 1didn’t cover 6avg −6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARIZ

L 87-93

+15.5

UNF

W 104-64

−1.5

FSU

W 78-76

−26.5

MIA

W 82-68

−21.5

MRMK

W 80-45

−33.5

TCU

L 80-84

+8.5

PROV

W 90-78

−1.5

over 2under 5avg −8.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Duke

8 games played

Straight up

8-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-2

75% covers · avg +5.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-7

13% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-0100%

W W W W W W W W

8 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-275%

W W W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-713%

U U O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsTEX	W 75-60	-10.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 8	vsWCU	W 95-54	-36.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 11	@ARMY	W 114-59	-33.5	W +21.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 14	vsINST	W 100-62	-37.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 162
Nov 18	vsKU	W 78-66	-10.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 21	vsNIA	W 100-42	-39.5	W +18.5	146.5	U 142
Nov 23	vsHOW	W 93-56	-43.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 149
Nov 27	vsARK	W 80-71	-12.5	L −3.5	159.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TEX

W 75-60

+4.5

WCU

W 95-54

+4.5

ARMY

W 114-59

+21.5

INST

W 100-62

+0.5

W 78-66

+1.5

NIA

W 100-42

+18.5

HOW

W 93-56

−6.5

ARK

W 80-71

−3.5

covered 6didn’t cover 2avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TEX

W 75-60

−18.5

WCU

W 95-54

−3.5

ARMY

W 114-59

+20.5

INST

W 100-62

−1.5

W 78-66

−5.5

NIA

W 100-42

−4.5

HOW

W 93-56

−5.5

ARK

W 80-71

−8.5

over 1under 7avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Florida Gators at Duke Blue Devils

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Florida

Duke

Florida

Duke