PeoplesBank Arena · at UConn · Conference game
Closing line
CONN -11.5✓ VILL covered by 3.5
CONN -11.5✓ VILL covered by 3.5Closing total137.5Over by 4.5
 VILL | This season | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| 15-4 | Record | 18-1 |
| 12-7 | ATS | 6-13 |
| 10-9 | O/U | 7-12 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VILL 64–73 CONN · ✓ CONN (79%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VILL | 31 | 30 | 6 | 67 |
| CONN | 27 | 34 | 14 | 75 |
1st half: VILL 31, CONN 27 (VILL by 4). The model had CONN by 5.3 and a total of 64.3 (actual 58).
Team stats
| VILL | CONN | |
|---|---|---|
| 20-59 34% | Field goals | 25-61 41% |
| 10-26 38% | 3-pointers | 8-22 36% |
| 17-22 77% | Free throws | 17-22 77% |
| 39 16 off | Rebounds | 42 16 off |
| 14 | Assists | 17 |
| 4 | Steals | 5 |
| 2 | Blocks | 1 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 21 | Fouls | 18 |
| 20 | Points in paint | 32 |
| 9 | Fast-break points | 10 |
Players
| VILL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke Brennan F | 40 | 16 | 14 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Bryce Lindsay G | 40 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0-8 | 0-6 |
| Tyler Perkins G | 39 | 16 | 10 | 2 | 6-16 | 2-5 |
| Matt Hodge F | 30 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Acaden Lewis G | 27 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1-13 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Devin Askew G | 27 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 4-9 | 3-4 |
| Malachi Palmer G | 17 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Braden Pierce C | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Nico Onyekwere, Wade Chiddick, Chris Jeffrey, Zion Stanford, Malcolm Flaggs, Tafara Gapare
| CONN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Karaban F | 40 | 17 | 8 | 0 | 4-10 | 1-3 |
| Silas Demary Jr. G | 39 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 4-11 | 0-1 |
| Solo Ball G | 38 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 7-17 | 5-12 |
| Tarris Reed Jr. C | 31 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 4-7 | 0-0 |
| Braylon Mullins G | 18 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-5 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaylin Stewart F | 20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| Jayden Ross F | 19 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Eric Reibe C | 14 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Malachi Smith G | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Rrezon Elezaj, Uros Paunovic, Jacob Furphy, Alec Millender, Dwayne Koroma, Jacob Ross
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCONN -9.5
2 → CONN
CloseCONN -11.5
2 pts toward CONN
Total
Open134.5
▲ 3
Close137.5
Up 3 since the open
Moneyline
VILL +600 · CONN -900
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CONN -9.5 · closed CONN -11.5 · moved 2 toward CONNmodel CONN -9
model CONN -9
Opened 134.5 · closed 137.5 · moved 3 upmodel 137.5 matches the line
model 137.5 = line ✓
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | CONN -11.5 | CONN -9.1 | VILL +2.4 | W VILL covered |
| Total | 137.5 | 137.3 | Under 0.2 | L Over |
| Projected score | — | VILL 64.1 · CONN 73.2 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | CONN -5.3 | VILL -4.0 |
| 1H total | 64.3 | 58 |
| 1H projected score | VILL 29.5 · CONN 34.8 | VILL 31 · CONN 27 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VILL | 8-2 80% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
| CONN | 10-0 100% | 3-7 30% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 10 since 2021-22
VILL 3–7 CONNCONN leads · 10 games since 2021-22 · CONN has won the last 2 meetings · VILL 6-3-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2024-25 | VILL 56 vs CONN 73 | CONN -6.5 | CONN W |
| Feb 18, 2024-25 | VILL 59 @ CONN 66 | CONN -8.5 | VILL W |
| Jan 8, 2024-25 | CONN 66 @ VILL 68 | VILL -1.5 | VILL W |
| Feb 24, 2023-24 | VILL 54 @ CONN 78 | CONN -12.5 | CONN W |
| Jan 20, 2023-24 | CONN 66 @ VILL 65 | VILL +4.5 | VILL W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Villanova
19 games played
Straight up
15-4
79% wins
Against the spread
12-7
63% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
10-9
53% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs BYU | L 66-71 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 153.5 | U 137 |
| Nov 8 | vs QUC | W 94-74 | -17.5 | W +2.5 | 150.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 11 | vs SHU | W 94-60 | -19.5 | W +14.5 | 160.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 15 | vs DUQ | W 87-77 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 151.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 19 | @ LAS | W 70-55 | -12.5 | W +2.5 | 144.5 | U 125 |
| Nov 25 | vs ODU | W 89-75 | -22.5 | L −8.5 | 147.5 | O 164 |
| Dec 1 | vs TEM | W 74-56 | -14.5 | W +3.5 | 146.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 6 | vs PENN | W 90-63 | -18.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 9 | @ MICH | L 61-89 | +17.5 | L −10.5 | 156.5 | U 150 |
| Dec 13 | vs PITT | W 79-61 | -10.5 | W +7.5 | 138.5 | O 140 |
| Dec 19 | vs WIS | W 76-66 | +3.5 | W +13.5 | 152.5 | U 142 |
| Dec 23 | @ HALL | W 64-56 | +1.5 | W +9.5 | 135.5 | U 120 |
| Dec 31 | vs DEP | W 71-66 | -12.5 | L −7.5 | 139.5 | U 137 |
| Jan 3 | @ BTLR | W 85-67 | +2.5 | W +20.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 7 | vs CREI | L 72-76 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 142.5 | O 148 |
| Jan 10 | @ MARQ | W 76-73 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 146.5 | O 149 |
| Jan 13 | @ PROV | W 88-82 | -2.5 | W +3.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 17 | vs SJU | L 79-86 | +2.5 | L −4.5 | 147.5 | O 165 |
| Jan 21 | vs GTWN | W 66-51 | -8.5 | W +6.5 | 142.5 | U 117 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsBYU
BYUL 66-71
+4.5
8
vsQUC
QUCW 94-74
+2.5
11
vsSHU
SHUW 94-60
+14.5
15
vsDUQ
DUQW 87-77
−0.5
19
@LAS
LASW 70-55
+2.5
25
vsODU
ODUW 89-75
−8.5
1
vsTEM
TEMW 74-56
+3.5
6
vsPENN
PENNW 90-63
+8.5
9
@MICH
MICHL 61-89
−10.5
13
vsPITT
PITTW 79-61
+7.5
19
vsWIS
WISW 76-66
+13.5
23
@HALL
HALLW 64-56
+9.5
31
vsDEP
DEPW 71-66
−7.5
3
@BTLR
BTLRW 85-67
+20.5
7
vsCREI
CREIL 72-76
−8.5
10
@MARQ
MARQW 76-73
−0.5
13
@PROV
PROVW 88-82
+3.5
17
vsSJU
SJUL 79-86
−4.5
21
vsGTWN
GTWNW 66-51
+6.5
covered 12didn’t cover 7avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsBYU
BYUL 66-71
−16.5
8
vsQUC
QUCW 94-74
+17.5
11
vsSHU
SHUW 94-60
−6.5
15
vsDUQ
DUQW 87-77
+12.5
19
@LAS
LASW 70-55
−19.5
25
vsODU
ODUW 89-75
+16.5
1
vsTEM
TEMW 74-56
−16.5
6
vsPENN
PENNW 90-63
+2.5
9
@MICH
MICHL 61-89
−6.5
13
vsPITT
PITTW 79-61
+1.5
19
vsWIS
WISW 76-66
−10.5
23
@HALL
HALLW 64-56
−15.5
31
vsDEP
DEPW 71-66
−2.5
3
@BTLR
BTLRW 85-67
+2.5
7
vsCREI
CREIL 72-76
+5.5
10
@MARQ
MARQW 76-73
+2.5
13
@PROV
PROVW 88-82
+13.5
17
vsSJU
SJUL 79-86
+17.5
21
vsGTWN
GTWNW 66-51
−25.5
over 10under 9avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
UConn
19 games played
Straight up
18-1
95% wins
Against the spread
6-13
32% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
7-12
37% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs NHVN | W 79-55 | -42.5 | L −18.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 7 | vs UML | W 110-47 | -36.5 | W +26.5 | 151.5 | O 157 |
| Nov 10 | vs COLU | W 89-62 | -32.5 | L −5.5 | 155.5 | U 151 |
| Nov 15 | vsBYU | W 86-84 | -6.5 | L −4.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Nov 19 | vs ARIZ | L 67-71 | -4.5 | L −8.5 | 156.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 23 | vs BRY | W 72-49 | -36.5 | L −13.5 | 147.5 | U 121 |
| Nov 28 | vs ILL | W 74-61 | -4.5 | W +8.5 | 150.5 | U 135 |
| Dec 2 | @ KU | W 61-56 | -3.5 | W +1.5 | 141.5 | U 117 |
| Dec 5 | vs ETAM | W 83-59 | -36.5 | L −12.5 | 141.5 | O 142 |
| Dec 9 | vs FLA | W 77-73 | -4.5 | L −0.5 | 145.5 | O 150 |
| Dec 12 | vs TEX | W 71-63 | -11.5 | L −3.5 | 145.5 | U 134 |
| Dec 16 | vsBTLR | W 79-60 | -15.5 | W +3.5 | 144.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 21 | @DEP | W 72-54 | -12.5 | W +5.5 | 133.5 | U 126 |
| Dec 31 | @ XAV | W 90-67 | -11.5 | W +11.5 | 144.5 | O 157 |
| Jan 4 | vsMARQ | W 73-57 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 130 |
| Jan 7 | @PROV | W 103-98 | -9.5 | L −4.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 10 | vsDEP | W 72-60 | -19.5 | L −7.5 | 137.5 | U 132 |
| Jan 13 | @HALL | W 69-64 | -6.5 | L −1.5 | 132.5 | O 133 |
| Jan 17 | @GTWN | W 64-62 | -11.5 | L −9.5 | 141.5 | U 126 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−18.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+26.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−5.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
−4.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−8.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−13.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
+8.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
+1.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
−12.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
−0.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−3.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
+3.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
+5.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+11.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−1.5
7
@PROV
PROVW 103-98
−4.5
10
vsDEP
DEPW 72-60
−7.5
13
@HALL
HALLW 69-64
−1.5
17
@GTWN
GTWNW 64-62
−9.5
covered 6didn’t cover 13avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsNHVN
NHVNW 79-55
−11.5
7
vsUML
UMLW 110-47
+5.5
10
vsCOLU
COLUW 89-62
−4.5
15
vsBYU
BYUW 86-84
+13.5
19
vsARIZ
ARIZL 67-71
−18.5
23
vsBRY
BRYW 72-49
−26.5
28
vsILL
ILLW 74-61
−15.5
2
@KU
KUW 61-56
−24.5
5
vsETAM
ETAMW 83-59
+0.5
9
vsFLA
FLAW 77-73
+4.5
12
vsTEX
TEXW 71-63
−11.5
16
vsBTLR
BTLRW 79-60
−5.5
21
@DEP
DEPW 72-54
−7.5
31
@XAV
XAVW 90-67
+12.5
4
vsMARQ
MARQW 73-57
−14.5
7
@PROV
PROVW 103-98
+48.5
10
vsDEP
DEPW 72-60
−5.5
13
@HALL
HALLW 69-64
+0.5
17
@GTWN
GTWNW 64-62
−15.5
over 7under 12avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Villanova
15-4 overall · 6-2 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Georgetown66–51
- Lvs St John's79–86
- W@ Providence88–82
- W@ Marquette76–73
- Lvs Creighton72–76
3 days since their last game.
UConn
18-1 overall · 8-0 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Georgetown64–62
- W@ Seton Hall69–64
- Wvs DePaul72–60
- W@ Providence103–98
- Wvs Marquette73–57
A week or more of rest.