Villanova Wildcats at Marquette Golden Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 10, 2:30 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Marquette · Conference game

#32VILLVillanova76▲ winner

Final

#42MARQMarquette73final

Closing lineVILL -3.5✓ MARQ covered by 0.5

Closing total146.5Over by 2.5

Season records: Villanova and Marquette
VILL	This season	MARQ
12-3	Record	6-10
10-5	ATS	4-12
7-8	O/U	7-9

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: VILL 75–71 MARQ · ✓ VILL (66%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
VILL	44	32	76
MARQ	38	35	73

1st half: VILL 44, MARQ 38 (VILL by 6). The model had VILL by 3.0 and a total of 68.3 (actual 82).

Team stats

VILL		MARQ
31-56 55%	Field goals	25-57 44%
7-25 28%	3-pointers	11-31 35%
7-7 100%	Free throws	12-15 80%
26 6 off	Rebounds	27 10 off
14	Assists	14
7	Steals	8
3	Blocks	1
10	Turnovers	9
16	Fouls	11
40	Points in paint	28
8	Fast-break points	8

Players

VILL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Acaden Lewis G	36	20	2	8	8-13	1-3
Matt Hodge F	35	14	5	0	5-7	4-6
Bryce Lindsay G	32	9	5	0	3-10	1-7
Duke Brennan F	28	12	4	1	6-7	0-0
Tyler Perkins G	27	8	1	2	4-8	0-4
Bench
Devin Askew G	25	13	6	1	5-10	1-4
Malachi Palmer G	12	0	1	2	0-1	0-1
Braden Pierce C	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Nico Onyekwere, Wade Chiddick, Chris Jeffrey, Zion Stanford, Tafara Gapare, Malcolm Flaggs

MARQ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Royce Parham F	37	17	1	1	4-8	1-3
Nigel James Jr. G	37	31	1	6	11-14	7-9
Chase Ross G	36	8	4	4	3-12	2-7
Adrien Stevens G	31	4	4	1	1-4	0-3
Ben Gold F	13	2	0	0	1-4	0-2
Bench
Tre Norman G	16	4	4	1	2-4	0-2
Michael Phillips II SF	12	3	4	0	1-6	1-4
Caedin Hamilton F	8	4	0	0	2-4	0-0
Damarius Owens SF	7	0	3	1	0-1	0-1
Joshua Clark F	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Braeden Brenn, Sheek Pearson, Ian Miletic, Nash Walker, Casey O'Malley, Jonah Lucas, Sean Jones

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	VILL -3.5	VILL -4.8	VILL +1.3	L MARQ covered
Total	146.5	145.8	Under 0.7	L Over
Projected score	—	VILL 75.3 · MARQ 70.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VILL -3.0	VILL -6.0
1H total	68.3	82
1H projected score	VILL 35.7 · MARQ 32.6	VILL 44 · MARQ 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VILL WWLWL	10-5	67%	3-1	6-4
MARQ LLLWL	4-12	25%	2-8	2-4

Venue/role: VILL away, as favorite; MARQ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
VILL UUUOO	7-8	47%	12-3
MARQ UUOUU	7-9	44%	6-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VILL	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
MARQ	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

VILL 1–8 MARQMARQ leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · VILL 1-8 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 21, 2024-25	MARQ 66 @ VILL 81	VILL +2.5	VILL W
Jan 24, 2024-25	VILL 74 @ MARQ 87	MARQ -9.5	MARQ W
Mar 14, 2023-24	VILL 65 vs MARQ 71	MARQ -4.5	MARQ W
Jan 30, 2023-24	MARQ 85 @ VILL 80	VILL -2.5	MARQ W
Jan 15, 2023-24	VILL 74 @ MARQ 87	MARQ -6.5	MARQ W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Villanova

15 games played

Straight up

12-3

80% wins

Against the spread

10-5

67% covers · avg +3.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-8

47% overs · avg −2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-380%

L W W W W W W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

10-567%

W W W L W L W W L W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-847%

U O U O U O U O U O U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBYU	L 66-71	+9.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 137
Nov 8	vsQUC	W 94-74	-17.5	W +2.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 11	vsSHU	W 94-60	-19.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 154
Nov 15	vsDUQ	W 87-77	-10.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 164
Nov 19	@LAS	W 70-55	-12.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 125
Nov 25	vsODU	W 89-75	-22.5	L −8.5	147.5	O 164
Dec 1	vsTEM	W 74-56	-14.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 6	vsPENN	W 90-63	-18.5	W +8.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 9	@MICH	L 61-89	+17.5	L −10.5	156.5	U 150
Dec 13	vsPITT	W 79-61	-10.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 140
Dec 19	vsWIS	W 76-66	+3.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 142
Dec 23	@HALL	W 64-56	+1.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 120
Dec 31	vsDEP	W 71-66	-12.5	L −7.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	@BTLR	W 85-67	+2.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 152
Jan 7	vsCREI	L 72-76	-4.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BYU

L 66-71

+4.5

QUC

W 94-74

+2.5

SHU

W 94-60

+14.5

DUQ

W 87-77

−0.5

LAS

W 70-55

+2.5

ODU

W 89-75

−8.5

TEM

W 74-56

+3.5

PENN

W 90-63

+8.5

MICH

L 61-89

−10.5

PITT

W 79-61

+7.5

WIS

W 76-66

+13.5

HALL

W 64-56

+9.5

DEP

W 71-66

−7.5

BTLR

W 85-67

+20.5

CREI

L 72-76

−8.5

covered 10didn’t cover 5avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BYU

L 66-71

−16.5

QUC

W 94-74

+17.5

SHU

W 94-60

−6.5

DUQ

W 87-77

+12.5

LAS

W 70-55

−19.5

ODU

W 89-75

+16.5

TEM

W 74-56

−16.5

PENN

W 90-63

+2.5

MICH

L 61-89

−6.5

PITT

W 79-61

+1.5

WIS

W 76-66

−10.5

HALL

W 64-56

−15.5

DEP

W 71-66

−2.5

BTLR

W 85-67

+2.5

CREI

L 72-76

+5.5

over 7under 8avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marquette

16 games played

Straight up

6-10

38% wins

Against the spread

4-12

25% covers · avg −6.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-9

44% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-1038%

W W L W L L W L W L L L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-1225%

W L L W L L L W L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-944%

U O O U O U O U O O U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUALB	W 80-53	-24.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 5	vsSOU	W 100-82	-24.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 9	vsIU	L 77-100	+3.5	L −19.5	156.5	O 177
Nov 12	vsLR	W 89-49	-21.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMD	L 82-89	-8.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 171
Nov 19	vsDAY	L 71-77	-6.5	L −12.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 22	vsCMU	W 85-71	-25.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 28	vsOU	L 74-75	+1.5	W +0.5	162.5	U 149
Dec 2	vsVAL	W 75-72	-17.5	L −14.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 6	@WIS	L 76-96	+11.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 172
Dec 13	@PUR	L 59-79	+16.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 138
Dec 17	vsGTWN	L 69-78	-6.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 20	@CREI	L 63-84	+6.5	L −14.5	151.5	U 147
Dec 30	vsHALL	L 73-79	-1.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 4	@CONN	L 57-73	+17.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 7	vsXAV	W 66-65	-5.5	L −4.5	157.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

+2.5

SOU

W 100-82

−6.5

L 77-100

−19.5

W 89-49

+18.5

L 82-89

−15.5

DAY

L 71-77

−12.5

CMU

W 85-71

−11.5

L 74-75

+0.5

VAL

W 75-72

−14.5

WIS

L 76-96

−8.5

PUR

L 59-79

−3.5

GTWN

L 69-78

−15.5

CREI

L 63-84

−14.5

HALL

L 73-79

−7.5

CONN

L 57-73

+1.5

XAV

W 66-65

−4.5

covered 4didn’t cover 12avg −6.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

−16.5

SOU

W 100-82

+26.5

L 77-100

+20.5

W 89-49

−17.5

L 82-89

+24.5

DAY

L 71-77

−3.5

CMU

W 85-71

+3.5

L 74-75

−13.5

VAL

W 75-72

+0.5

WIS

L 76-96

+11.5

PUR

L 59-79

−16.5

GTWN

L 69-78

−2.5

CREI

L 63-84

−4.5

HALL

L 73-79

+6.5

CONN

L 57-73

−14.5

XAV

W 66-65

−26.5

over 7under 9avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Villanova Wildcats at Marquette Golden Eagles

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Villanova

Marquette

Villanova

Marquette