Xavier Musketeers vs Marquette Golden Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Mar 11, 6:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · Neutral site · Conference game · Conference tournament

#49XAVXavier89▲ winner

Final

#42MARQMarquette87final

Closing lineMARQ -4.5✓ XAV covered by 6.5

Closing total157.5Over by 18.5

Season records: Xavier and Marquette
XAV	This season	MARQ
14-17	Record	12-19
15-16	ATS	13-18
22-9	O/U	14-17

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: XAV 78–80 MARQ · ✗ MARQ (58%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
XAV	38	51	89
MARQ	38	49	87

1st half: XAV 38, MARQ 38 (tied). The model had MARQ by 1.2 and a total of 74.0 (actual 76).

Team stats

XAV		MARQ
33-64 52%	Field goals	31-73 42%
8-23 35%	3-pointers	11-40 28%
15-17 88%	Free throws	14-19 74%
37 7 off	Rebounds	39 14 off
21	Assists	21
5	Steals	6
5	Blocks	5
11	Turnovers	9
14	Fouls	14
44	Points in paint	40
14	Fast-break points	12

Players

XAV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Malik Messina-Moore G	36	18	4	3	7-13	2-6
Tre Carroll F	35	18	9	4	8-16	0-4
Filip Borovicanin F	33	10	6	7	3-7	0-1
Jovan Milicevic F	30	21	3	2	7-11	4-7
All Wright G	19	7	1	2	3-7	1-3
Bench
Roddie Anderson G	25	9	5	3	4-8	1-1
Isaiah Walker G	16	6	3	0	1-2	0-1
Pape N'Diaye F	6	0	3	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Anthony Robinson, Ian Sabourin, Mier Panoam, Michael Wolf, Henry Thole, Luke Naser, Gabriel Pozzato, Kason Westphal

MARQ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Royce Parham F	36	22	9	1	9-14	2-5
Chase Ross G	35	16	5	6	7-11	2-5
Ben Gold F	34	5	11	3	2-8	1-5
Nigel James Jr. G	30	18	2	7	6-17	2-9
Adrien Stevens G	26	6	5	3	2-12	1-10
Bench
Damarius Owens SF	17	7	3	0	1-2	1-2
Michael Phillips II SF	13	10	1	1	4-6	2-4
Caedin Hamilton F	5	2	2	0	0-2	0-0
Tre Norman G	4	1	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Joshua Clark, Casey O'Malley, Jonah Lucas, Ian Miletic, Sean Jones, Sheek Pearson, Braeden Brenn, Nash Walker

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MARQ -4.5	MARQ -2.3	XAV +2.3	W XAV covered
Total	157.5	158.4	Over 0.9	W Over
Projected score	—	XAV 78.1 · MARQ 80.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MARQ -1.2	PK
1H total	74.0	76
1H projected score	XAV 36.4 · MARQ 37.6	XAV 38 · MARQ 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
XAV LLWLL	15-16	48%	2-0	11-9
MARQ WWLWW	13-18	42%	1-1	3-10

Venue/role: XAV neutral site, as underdog; MARQ neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
XAV UOOOO	22-9	71%	14-17
MARQ UUUUU	14-17	45%	12-19

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
XAV	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
MARQ	5-5 50%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 12 since 2021-22

XAV 4–8 MARQMARQ leads · 12 games since 2021-22 · XAV 7-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 14, 2025-26	MARQ 88 @ XAV 96	XAV -1.5	XAV W
Jan 7, 2025-26	XAV 65 @ MARQ 66	MARQ -5.5	XAV W
Mar 13, 2024-25	MARQ 89 vs XAV 87	XAV +2.5	XAV W
Jan 18, 2024-25	XAV 59 @ MARQ 57	MARQ -9.5	XAV W
Dec 21, 2024-25	MARQ 72 @ XAV 70	XAV +4.5	XAV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Xavier

31 games played

Straight up

14-17

45% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

22-9

71% overs · avg +5.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

14-1745%

W W L L W L W W W W W L W L L L W W L L L W L L W L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

L L L L W W W W L W L L W L L W W W W W L L L W W W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

22-971%

U U U U O U O O O O U O O O O U O O O O O U O O O O U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRST	W 66-62	-12.5	L −8.5	139.5	U 128
Nov 6	vsLEM	W 74-69	-24.5	L −19.5	156.5	U 143
Nov 10	vsSCU	L 68-87	-3.5	L −22.5	155.5	U 155
Nov 14	@IOWA	L 62-81	+15.5	L −3.5	143.5	U 143
Nov 18	vsODU	W 99-69	-10.5	W +19.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 21	vsUGA	L 77-78	+10.5	W +9.5	165.5	U 155
Nov 23	vsWVU	W 78-68	+5.5	W +15.5	140.5	O 146
Nov 28	vsAMCC	W 88-67	-13.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 155
Dec 1	vsSFPA	W 96-74	-27.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 170
Dec 5	vsCIN	W 79-74	+1.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 153
Dec 12	vsMOST	W 75-57	-18.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 132
Dec 17	vsCREI	L 57-98	-2.5	L −43.5	151.5	O 155
Dec 20	@GTWN	W 80-77	+4.5	W +7.5	149.5	O 157
Dec 31	vsCONN	L 67-90	+11.5	L −11.5	144.5	O 157
Jan 3	@DEP	L 77-86	+2.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 163
Jan 7	@MARQ	L 65-66	+5.5	W +4.5	157.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsPROV	W 97-84	+1.5	W +14.5	165.5	O 181
Jan 14	vsBTLR	W 89-75	+1.5	W +15.5	161.5	O 164
Jan 21	@CREI	L 93-94	+8.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 187
Jan 24	vsSJU	L 83-88	+8.5	W +3.5	159.5	O 171
Jan 28	@HALL	L 68-86	+5.5	L −12.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 31	vsDEP	W 68-66	-4.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 134
Feb 3	@CONN	L 60-92	+16.5	L −15.5	147.5	O 152
Feb 9	@SJU	L 82-87	+16.5	W +11.5	159.5	O 169
Feb 14	vsMARQ	W 96-88	-1.5	W +6.5	157.5	O 184
Feb 17	vsVILL	L 89-92	+4.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 181
Feb 21	@BTLR	L 75-80	+4.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 155
Feb 25	@PROV	L 84-94	+5.5	L −4.5	170.5	O 178
Feb 28	vsGTWN	W 91-84	-4.5	W +2.5	155.5	O 175
Mar 3	vsHALL	L 68-77	+1.5	L −7.5	144.5	O 145
Mar 7	@VILL	L 78-91	+11.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−8.5

LEM

W 74-69

−19.5

SCU

L 68-87

−22.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−3.5

ODU

W 99-69

+19.5

UGA

L 77-78

+9.5

WVU

W 78-68

+15.5

AMCC

W 88-67

+7.5

SFPA

W 96-74

−5.5

CIN

W 79-74

+6.5

MOST

W 75-57

−0.5

CREI

L 57-98

−43.5

GTWN

W 80-77

+7.5

CONN

L 67-90

−11.5

DEP

L 77-86

−6.5

MARQ

L 65-66

+4.5

PROV

W 97-84

+14.5

BTLR

W 89-75

+15.5

CREI

L 93-94

+7.5

SJU

L 83-88

+3.5

HALL

L 68-86

−12.5

DEP

W 68-66

−2.5

CONN

L 60-92

−15.5

SJU

L 82-87

+11.5

MARQ

W 96-88

+6.5

VILL

L 89-92

+1.5

BTLR

L 75-80

−0.5

PROV

L 84-94

−4.5

GTWN

W 91-84

+2.5

HALL

L 68-77

−7.5

VILL

L 78-91

−1.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRST

W 66-62

−11.5

LEM

W 74-69

−13.5

SCU

L 68-87

−0.5

IOWA

L 62-81

−0.5

ODU

W 99-69

+17.5

UGA

L 77-78

−10.5

WVU

W 78-68

+5.5

AMCC

W 88-67

+8.5

SFPA

W 96-74

+17.5

CIN

W 79-74

+5.5

MOST

W 75-57

−19.5

CREI

L 57-98

+3.5

GTWN

W 80-77

+7.5

CONN

L 67-90

+12.5

DEP

L 77-86

+13.5

MARQ

L 65-66

−26.5

PROV

W 97-84

+15.5

BTLR

W 89-75

+2.5

CREI

L 93-94

+31.5

SJU

L 83-88

+11.5

HALL

L 68-86

+8.5

DEP

W 68-66

−16.5

CONN

L 60-92

+4.5

SJU

L 82-87

+9.5

MARQ

W 96-88

+26.5

VILL

L 89-92

+28.5

BTLR

L 75-80

−4.5

PROV

L 84-94

+7.5

GTWN

W 91-84

+19.5

HALL

L 68-77

+0.5

VILL

L 78-91

+15.5

over 22under 9avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marquette

31 games played

Straight up

12-19

39% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1939%

W W L W L L W L W L L L L L L W L L L W L W L W L L L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1842%

W L L W L L L W L L L L L L W L W L L L L W W W W L W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1745%

U O O U O U O U O O U U U O U U O O O O O U U U O O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUALB	W 80-53	-24.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 5	vsSOU	W 100-82	-24.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 9	vsIU	L 77-100	+3.5	L −19.5	156.5	O 177
Nov 12	vsLR	W 89-49	-21.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 138
Nov 15	vsMD	L 82-89	-8.5	L −15.5	146.5	O 171
Nov 19	vsDAY	L 71-77	-6.5	L −12.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 22	vsCMU	W 85-71	-25.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 28	vsOU	L 74-75	+1.5	W +0.5	162.5	U 149
Dec 2	vsVAL	W 75-72	-17.5	L −14.5	146.5	O 147
Dec 6	@WIS	L 76-96	+11.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 172
Dec 13	@PUR	L 59-79	+16.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 138
Dec 17	vsGTWN	L 69-78	-6.5	L −15.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 20	@CREI	L 63-84	+6.5	L −14.5	151.5	U 147
Dec 30	vsHALL	L 73-79	-1.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 152
Jan 4	@CONN	L 57-73	+17.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 130
Jan 7	vsXAV	W 66-65	-5.5	L −4.5	157.5	U 131
Jan 10	vsVILL	L 73-76	+3.5	W +0.5	146.5	O 149
Jan 13	@SJU	L 68-92	+15.5	L −8.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 16	@DEP	L 75-80	+2.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 155
Jan 19	vsPROV	W 105-104	-2.5	L −1.5	167.5	O 209
Jan 23	@BTLR	L 76-87	+5.5	L −5.5	161.5	O 163
Jan 27	vsCREI	W 86-62	+1.5	W +25.5	154.5	U 148
Jan 31	@HALL	L 64-69	+6.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 133
Feb 7	vsBTLR	W 70-55	-3.5	W +11.5	155.5	U 125
Feb 10	@VILL	L 74-77	+9.5	W +6.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 14	@XAV	L 88-96	+1.5	L −6.5	157.5	O 184
Feb 18	vsSJU	L 70-76	+8.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 146
Feb 24	@GTWN	W 76-60	+2.5	W +18.5	150.5	U 136
Mar 1	vsDEP	L 51-62	-4.5	L −15.5	139.5	U 113
Mar 4	@PROV	W 78-56	+3.5	W +25.5	161.5	U 134
Mar 7	vsCONN	W 68-62	+9.5	W +15.5	143.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

+2.5

SOU

W 100-82

−6.5

L 77-100

−19.5

W 89-49

+18.5

L 82-89

−15.5

DAY

L 71-77

−12.5

CMU

W 85-71

−11.5

L 74-75

+0.5

VAL

W 75-72

−14.5

WIS

L 76-96

−8.5

PUR

L 59-79

−3.5

GTWN

L 69-78

−15.5

CREI

L 63-84

−14.5

HALL

L 73-79

−7.5

CONN

L 57-73

+1.5

XAV

W 66-65

−4.5

VILL

L 73-76

+0.5

SJU

L 68-92

−8.5

DEP

L 75-80

−2.5

PROV

W 105-104

−1.5

BTLR

L 76-87

−5.5

CREI

W 86-62

+25.5

HALL

L 64-69

+1.5

BTLR

W 70-55

+11.5

VILL

L 74-77

+6.5

XAV

L 88-96

−6.5

SJU

L 70-76

+2.5

GTWN

W 76-60

+18.5

DEP

L 51-62

−15.5

PROV

W 78-56

+25.5

CONN

W 68-62

+15.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

−16.5

SOU

W 100-82

+26.5

L 77-100

+20.5

W 89-49

−17.5

L 82-89

+24.5

DAY

L 71-77

−3.5

CMU

W 85-71

+3.5

L 74-75

−13.5

VAL

W 75-72

+0.5

WIS

L 76-96

+11.5

PUR

L 59-79

−16.5

GTWN

L 69-78

−2.5

CREI

L 63-84

−4.5

HALL

L 73-79

+6.5

CONN

L 57-73

−14.5

XAV

W 66-65

−26.5

VILL

L 73-76

+2.5

SJU

L 68-92

+4.5

DEP

L 75-80

+9.5

PROV

W 105-104

+41.5

BTLR

L 76-87

+1.5

CREI

W 86-62

−6.5

HALL

L 64-69

−10.5

BTLR

W 70-55

−30.5

VILL

L 74-77

+6.5

XAV

L 88-96

+26.5

SJU

L 70-76

−11.5

GTWN

W 76-60

−14.5

DEP

L 51-62

−26.5

PROV

W 78-56

−27.5

CONN

W 68-62

−13.5

over 14under 17avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Xavier Musketeers vs Marquette Golden Eagles

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Xavier

Marquette

Xavier

Marquette