1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. ELON @ RICH
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Elon Phoenix at Richmond Spiders

Robins Center · at Richmond
#231ELONElon
@
#104RICHRichmond
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
ELONThis seasonRICH
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects RICH 81–69 · win probability RICH 86%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 149.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: RICH has more of the edges

ELON 1, RICH 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
RICHBig
Three-pointers
ELON hits 34.3% and allows 36.5%; RICH hits 37.1% and allows 32.7%. Threes are 43.2% and 42.6% of their shots
RICHBig
RICH offense vs ELON defense
Offense 113th of 366 against a defense 235th, on the model’s ratings
RICHBig
ELON offense vs RICH defense
Offense 225th of 366 against a defense 105th, on the model’s ratings
RICHSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ELON 16.0%, RICH 14.3%. Forced: ELON 16.4%, RICH 17.8%
Context
Schedule so far
ELON has played the 186th-hardest schedule, RICH the 125th. A record against a soft schedule means less
ELONSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ELON 32.3%, RICH 25.0%. Defensive: ELON 66.5%, RICH 69.0%
RICHSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: ELON 52.2 and allows 54.0; RICH 52.7 and allows 52.0
RICHSmall
Home court
RICH at home. This season: RICH 0-0 at home, ELON 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ELON 33.5, RICH 36.9. Allowed: ELON 34.6, RICH 35.1
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: ELON plays 69.0 a game (178th fastest), RICH 68.8 (194th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ELON 30%, RICH 29%. Transfers in: ELON 5, RICH 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—RICH -12.3—
Total—149.8—
Projected score—ELON 68.7 · RICH 81

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadRICH -7.2—
1H total70.0—
1H projected scoreELON 31.4 · RICH 38.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Richmond has the better starters

Position by position: Elon 0, Richmond 5, even 0
ElonBetterRichmond
G R. Pettus11 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 28
RICHSmall
G D. Saran TR11.3 pts · 5 reb · 3.1 ast Score 52
G B. Cokley12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 60
RICHSmall
G A. Argabright10.8 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast Score 87
G I. Mbeng TR4.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.6 ast Score 12
RICHSmall
G D. Stewart TR6.6 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 44
G C. Thrower TR5.9 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.2 ast Score 33
RICHSmall
F J. Kaiser TR9.5 pts · 4.3 reb · 1 ast Score 60
F J. Dalton TR3.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 38
RICHSmall
C A. Dorries TR16.2 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 62
ElonBetterRichmond
ELON offense225th of 366 · -6.9
RICHSmall
RICH defense105th of 366 · -1.0
ELON defense235th of 366 · -6.2
RICHSmall
RICH offense113th of 366 · -2.0
Backcourt-5.7 · 4 players
RICHBig
Backcourt+0.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
RICHSmall
Frontcourt+1.5 · 2 players
Bench-0.7 · 4 players
Even
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestELON betterRICH betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Elon
Guards
R. Pettus28 minB. Cokley27 minI. Mbeng23 min · TRC. Thrower17 min · TRR. Villar12 min · TRK. DixonNew
Forwards
J. Dalton13 min · TRI. Garmendia3 minA. Olander1 minM. ŠarenacNewB. SehlhorstNewC. ZhuNew
Centers
H. Harding7 min · TR
Richmond
Guards
D. Saran30 min · TRA. Argabright24 minD. Stewart23 min · TRC. Tanner18 minW. Harper11 minK. Mooney5 min
Forwards
J. Kaiser29 min · TRA. Ball21 min · TRJ. McCaffery10 min · TRC. CookNewD. CaldwellNew
Centers
A. Dorries33 min · TRD. HomenickNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
ELONRICH
Scoring
76.8 #123Points per game76.5 #132
1.12 #111Points per possession1.11 #119
69.0 #178Pace (possessions)68.8 #194
Shooting
52.2 #137Effective FG%52.7 #115
34.3 #1543-point %37.1 #28
43.2 #1073-point attempt rate42.6 #126
33.5 #222Free throw rate36.9 #133
Possessions
16.0 #136Turnover rate14.3 #32
32.3 #116Offensive rebound rate25.0 #340
14.6 #108Assists per game14.0 #145
Defense
79.3 #307Points allowed74.5 #175
1.14 #316Points allowed per possession1.09 #183
54.0 #300Opponent effective FG%52.0 #216
36.5 #328Opponent 3-point %32.7 #103
16.4 #196Turnovers forced17.8 #111
66.5 #307Defensive rebound rate69.0 #200
6.6 #157Steals per game6.8 #139
3.0 #231Blocks per game2.3 #323
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Elon

12-18 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs William & Mary62–72
  • Lvs UNC Wilmington57–76
  • L@ Monmouth57–73
  • L@ Towson56–58
  • Lvs NC A&T82–102

A week or more of rest.

Richmond

14-17 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Loyola Chicago67–75
  • L@ Duquesne77–79
  • Lvs Dayton60–65
  • L@ Loyola Chicago66–69
  • Wvs St Bonaventure99–94

A week or more of rest.