Furman Paladins at Elon Phoenix: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 7:00 PM ETSchar Center · at Elon

#152FURFurman97▲ winner

Final

#231ELONElon88final

Closing lineFUR -1.5✓ FUR covered by 7.5

Closing total153.5Over by 31.5

Season records: Furman and Elon
FUR	This season	ELON
2-4	Record	3-3
2-4	ATS	3-3
2-4	O/U	5-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: FUR 77–79 ELON · ✗ ELON (56%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
FUR	44	53	97
ELON	44	44	88

1st half: FUR 44, ELON 44 (tied). The model had ELON by 0.9 and a total of 73.0 (actual 88).

Team stats

FUR		ELON
31-61 51%	Field goals	29-68 43%
11-34 32%	3-pointers	11-34 32%
24-31 77%	Free throws	19-25 76%
41 12 off	Rebounds	38 14 off
20	Assists	16
3	Steals	4
7	Blocks	4
8	Turnovers	6
20	Fouls	23
40	Points in paint	36
17	Fast-break points	14

Players

FUR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Asa Thomas G	33	21	3	2	6-12	5-11
Cooper Bowser F	33	19	8	2	7-7	0-0
Ben Vander Wal F	31	13	8	2	6-7	1-2
Charles Johnston F	29	12	11	4	4-13	2-8
Alex Wilkins G	24	8	0	3	3-12	0-7
Bench
Collin O'Neal G	20	9	1	3	3-5	1-2
Tom House G	18	12	2	3	1-4	1-3
Eddrin Bronson G	12	3	2	1	1-1	1-1

Did not play: Owen Ritger, Gunnar Lewis, Cole Bowser, Abijah Franklin, Mason Smith, Thomas Tillman, Davis Molnar

ELON	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Randall Pettus II G	30	21	1	1	5-10	5-9
Ja'Juan Carr G	29	12	5	6	5-7	0-1
Chandler Cuthrell F	28	25	7	1	8-14	2-3
Kacper Klaczek F	27	7	2	2	3-9	1-5
Isaac Harrell F	26	5	3	1	2-7	1-4
Bench
Bryson Cokley G	24	11	5	1	4-13	1-6
DeMarco Johnson G	15	2	4	3	0-1	0-1
Bryson Spell F	12	2	1	1	1-2	0-0
Ned Hull G	9	3	3	0	1-5	1-5

Did not play: Alex Olander, Alex Brabec, Iker Garmendia, Trey O'Neil, Savion Taylor, Austin Williams, Caleb Middleton

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FUR -1.5	ELON -1.7	ELON +3.2	L FUR covered
Total	153.5	155.9	Over 2.4	W Over
Projected score	—	FUR 77.1 · ELON 78.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ELON -0.9	PK
1H total	73.0	88
1H projected score	FUR 36 · ELON 36.9	FUR 44 · ELON 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FUR LLWWL	2-4	33%	0-1	1-1
ELON WLLWL	3-3	50%	0-2	3-1

Venue/role: FUR away, as favorite; ELON home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
FUR UUOUU	2-4	33%	2-4
ELON OOOUO	5-1	83%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FURlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%
ELONlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	5-1 83%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Furman

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −5.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHPU	L 71-97	+3.5	L −22.5	153.5	O 168
Nov 7	vsTROY	L 61-64	-2.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 125
Nov 14	@UNI	L 54-70	+9.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 23	vsQUC	W 90-79	-8.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 169
Nov 27	vsRICH	W 73-72	+3.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 145
Nov 28	vsILST	L 65-72	+3.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HPU

L 71-97

−22.5

TROY

L 61-64

−5.5

UNI

L 54-70

−6.5

QUC

W 90-79

+2.5

RICH

W 73-72

+4.5

ILST

L 65-72

−3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HPU

L 71-97

+14.5

TROY

L 61-64

−27.5

UNI

L 54-70

−17.5

QUC

W 90-79

+15.5

RICH

W 73-72

−2.5

ILST

L 65-72

−8.5

over 2under 4avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Elon

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-1

83% overs · avg +18.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-183%

O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@UNCG	W 92-90	+4.5	W +6.5	142.5	O 182
Nov 12	@MRSH	L 89-96	+8.5	W +1.5	155.5	O 185
Nov 15	vsGWEB	W 95-84	-13.5	L −2.5	154.5	O 179
Nov 20	@MIA	L 72-99	+19.5	L −7.5	164.5	O 171
Nov 24	@APP	W 88-53	+5.5	W +40.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 29	vsMER	L 84-91	-2.5	L −9.5	159.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNCG

W 92-90

+6.5

MRSH

L 89-96

+1.5

GWEB

W 95-84

−2.5

MIA

L 72-99

−7.5

APP

W 88-53

+40.5

MER

L 84-91

−9.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNCG

W 92-90

+39.5

MRSH

L 89-96

+29.5

GWEB

W 95-84

+24.5

MIA

L 72-99

+6.5

APP

W 88-53

−2.5

MER

L 84-91

+15.5

over 5under 1avg +18.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Furman Paladins at Elon Phoenix

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Furman

Elon

Furman

Elon