George Washington Revolutionaries at Richmond Spiders: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 31, 4:00 PM ETRobins Center · at Richmond · Conference game

#101GWG Washington99▲ winner

Final

#104RICHRichmond85final

Closing lineGW -2.5✓ GW covered by 11.5

Closing total162.5Over by 21.5

Season records: G Washington and Richmond
GW	This season	RICH
8-4	Record	9-3
6-6	ATS	6-6
7-5	O/U	6-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GW 81–78 RICH · ✓ GW (59%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GW	49	50	99
RICH	38	47	85

1st half: GW 49, RICH 38 (GW by 11). The model had GW by 1.7 and a total of 74.3 (actual 87).

Team stats

GW		RICH
34-58 59%	Field goals	28-57 49%
17-33 52%	3-pointers	12-28 43%
14-15 93%	Free throws	17-21 81%
29 9 off	Rebounds	26 10 off
21	Assists	15
5	Steals	6
4	Blocks	1
10	Turnovers	8
21	Fouls	18
34	Points in paint	22
10	Fast-break points	11

Players

GW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Trey Autry G	35	24	1	3	8-11	6-9
Rafael Castro F	30	27	6	1	10-12	0-0
Bubu Benjamin G	25	0	2	2	0-3	0-3
Christian Jones G	19	12	2	2	4-8	3-5
Jean Aranguren G	18	6	3	4	2-3	0-1
Bench
Tre Dinkins G	31	22	8	8	7-12	6-11
Tyrone Marshall Jr. F	29	3	5	0	1-5	1-3
Luke Hunger F	10	5	0	1	2-4	1-1
Ty Bevins G	3	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jalen Rougier-Roane, Mohamed Binzagr, Amir Arrington, Vincent Chaudhri, Garrett Johnson, Trey Moss

RICH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Will Johnston G	27	20	4	3	6-13	5-10
AJ Lopez G	24	11	1	1	2-6	1-3
Mikkel Tyne G	22	6	2	1	2-3	2-3
Jaden Daughtry F	22	23	0	1	9-11	2-2
Mike Walz C	19	0	8	3	0-3	0-2
Bench
Aiden Argabright G	19	4	0	3	2-6	0-0
Collin Tanner G	17	7	1	0	2-5	1-3
Apostolos Roumoglou F	16	3	1	2	1-4	1-4
Jonathan Beagle F	14	6	2	1	2-3	0-0
David Thomas G	9	3	1	0	1-2	0-1
Jaylen Robinson F	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Will Harper III G	5	2	1	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Donovan Richardson, Bryson McGlothin, Dylan Homenick, Kirby Mooney

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	GW -2.5	GW -2.6	GW +0.1	W GW covered
Total	162.5	158.8	Under 3.7	L Over
Projected score	—	GW 80.7 · RICH 78.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GW -1.7	GW -11.0
1H total	74.3	87
1H projected score	GW 38 · RICH 36.3	GW 49 · RICH 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GW LLLLW	6-6	50%	0-1	4-6
RICH LWLWL	6-6	50%	5-3	1-0

Venue/role: GW away, as favorite; RICH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GW OUOUU	7-5	58%	8-4
RICH OOUUU	6-6	50%	9-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GW	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
RICH	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

GW 2–5 RICHRICH leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · GW 2-5 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 29, 2024-25	RICH 66 @ GW 75	GW -8.5	GW W
Dec 31, 2024-25	GW 61 @ RICH 66	RICH +2.5	RICH W
Feb 17, 2023-24	RICH 90 @ GW 74	GW +5.5	RICH W
Jan 24, 2023-24	GW 74 @ RICH 82	RICH -7.5	RICH W
Feb 8, 2022-23	RICH 105 @ GW 107	GW -0.5	GW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

G Washington

12 games played

Straight up

8-4

67% wins

Against the spread

6-6

50% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-5

58% overs · avg +4.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-467%

W W W W W L W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-650%

L W W W W L W L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-558%

U O O O U O O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsME	W 67-47	-20.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	vsUSF	W 99-95	+1.5	W +5.5	159.5	O 194
Nov 12	vsAMER	W 107-67	-17.5	W +22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsODU	W 96-73	-15.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 169
Nov 19	vsUMBC	W 89-52	-22.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 23	vsMCN	L 86-92	-5.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 178
Nov 24	vsMTSU	W 92-79	-9.5	W +3.5	158.5	O 171
Nov 25	vsMUR	L 95-96	-7.5	L −8.5	167.5	O 191
Dec 2	@ARMY	W 84-70	-19.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 154
Dec 6	vsW&M	W 99-86	-13.5	L −0.5	174.5	O 185
Dec 10	vsDEL	L 58-70	-21.5	L −33.5	152.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsFLA	L 70-80	+14.5	W +4.5	162.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 67-47

−0.5

USF

W 99-95

+5.5

AMER

W 107-67

+22.5

ODU

W 96-73

+7.5

UMBC

W 89-52

+14.5

MCN

L 86-92

−11.5

MTSU

W 92-79

+3.5

MUR

L 95-96

−8.5

ARMY

W 84-70

−5.5

W&M

W 99-86

−0.5

DEL

L 58-70

−33.5

FLA

L 70-80

+4.5

covered 6didn’t cover 6avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 67-47

−29.5

USF

W 99-95

+34.5

AMER

W 107-67

+22.5

ODU

W 96-73

+13.5

UMBC

W 89-52

−19.5

MCN

L 86-92

+20.5

MTSU

W 92-79

+12.5

MUR

L 95-96

+23.5

ARMY

W 84-70

−2.5

W&M

W 99-86

+10.5

DEL

L 58-70

−24.5

FLA

L 70-80

−12.5

over 7under 5avg +4.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Richmond

12 games played

Straight up

9-3

75% wins

Against the spread

6-6

50% covers · avg +2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-6

50% overs · avg +1.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-375%

W W W W L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-650%

W L W W L L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-650%

O O U O U U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsECU	W 87-72	-5.5	W +9.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsW&M	W 90-86	-9.5	L −5.5	164.5	O 176
Nov 19	vsVMI	W 87-54	-14.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 141
Nov 22	vsGWEB	W 102-67	-19.5	W +15.5	154.5	O 169
Nov 27	vsFUR	L 72-73	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 145
Nov 28	vsCLT	W 71-66	-6.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 3	@BEL	W 84-76	+6.5	W +14.5	156.5	O 160
Dec 6	vsODU	W 86-77	-12.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 163
Dec 13	vsSIU	W 93-84	-3.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 177
Dec 17	@ELON	L 70-73	-3.5	L −6.5	161.5	U 143
Dec 20	vsCIT	W 80-56	-18.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Dec 28	vsCHSO	L 72-77	-11.5	L −16.5	159.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+9.5

W&M

W 90-86

−5.5

VMI

W 87-54

+18.5

GWEB

W 102-67

+15.5

FUR

L 72-73

−4.5

CLT

W 71-66

−1.5

BEL

W 84-76

+14.5

ODU

W 86-77

−3.5

SIU

W 93-84

+5.5

ELON

L 70-73

−6.5

CIT

W 80-56

+5.5

CHSO

L 72-77

−16.5

covered 6didn’t cover 6avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+15.5

W&M

W 90-86

+11.5

VMI

W 87-54

−11.5

GWEB

W 102-67

+14.5

FUR

L 72-73

−2.5

CLT

W 71-66

−4.5

BEL

W 84-76

+3.5

ODU

W 86-77

+9.5

SIU

W 93-84

+23.5

ELON

L 70-73

−18.5

CIT

W 80-56

−10.5

CHSO

L 72-77

−10.5

over 6under 6avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

George Washington Revolutionaries at Richmond Spiders

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

G Washington

Richmond

G Washington

Richmond