George Mason Patriots at Richmond Spiders: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Feb 10, 7:00 PM ETRobins Center · at Richmond · Conference game

Final

#104RICHRichmond82▲ winner

Closing lineGMU -3.5✓ RICH covered by 15.5

Closing total139.5Over by 12.5

Season records: George Mason and Richmond
GMU	This season	RICH
20-3	Record	12-11
13-10	ATS	11-12
11-12	O/U	10-13

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GMU 73–70 RICH · ✗ GMU (61%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GMU	29	41	70
RICH	49	33	82

1st half: GMU 29, RICH 49 (RICH by 20). The model had GMU by 2.1 and a total of 66.9 (actual 78).

Team stats

GMU		RICH
23-56 41%	Field goals	27-57 47%
4-17 24%	3-pointers	12-31 39%
20-30 67%	Free throws	16-19 84%
41 15 off	Rebounds	30 6 off
9	Assists	17
6	Steals	6
1	Blocks	2
15	Turnovers	10
19	Fouls	25
36	Points in paint	28
9	Fast-break points	6

Players

GMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jahari Long G	31	6	5	4	2-8	0-2
Kory Mincy G	22	4	0	2	2-9	0-4
Riley Allenspach F	20	16	4	1	5-12	1-4
Stas Sivka F	8	3	3	0	1-1	1-1
Masai Troutman G	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Bench
Fatt Hill G	35	23	8	0	8-11	2-4
Nick Ellington F	25	11	8	0	4-5	0-0
Devin Booker G	18	1	0	2	0-2	0-1
Emmanuel Kanga F	16	2	8	0	1-4	0-0
Malik Presley G	15	4	3	0	0-2	0-0
Dola Adebayo F	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: T.J. Prosise, Ben Woodward, Brayden O'Connor, Isaiah Skinn, Ryan-Preston Mendy

RICH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
AJ Lopez G	36	15	2	0	5-10	2-5
Will Johnston G	30	10	3	5	2-7	2-7
Mikkel Tyne G	26	16	2	1	6-12	4-10
Mike Walz C	19	4	2	2	2-6	0-3
Collin Tanner G	16	0	6	1	0-4	0-1
Bench
Aiden Argabright G	25	14	1	4	3-3	1-1
Jonathan Beagle F	17	6	8	1	2-6	0-0
David Thomas G	12	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Jaylen Robinson F	10	6	2	0	3-4	0-0
Jaden Daughtry F	9	9	3	3	3-4	3-4

Did not play: Kirby Mooney, Bryson McGlothin, Apostolos Roumoglou, Donovan Richardson, Will Harper III, Dylan Homenick

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	GMU -3.5	GMU -3.3	RICH +0.2	W RICH covered
Total	139.5	142.8	Over 3.3	W Over
Projected score	—	GMU 73.1 · RICH 69.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GMU -2.1	RICH -20.0
1H total	66.9	78
1H projected score	GMU 34.5 · RICH 32.4	GMU 29 · RICH 49

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GMU LWWLW	13-10	57%	2-4	12-9
RICH LLWLW	11-12	48%	6-7	4-3

Venue/role: GMU away, as favorite; RICH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GMU OUOUU	11-12	48%	20-3
RICH UUUUO	10-13	43%	12-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GMU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
RICH	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

GMU 7–2 RICHGMU leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · GMU has won the last 3 meetings · GMU 6-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 8, 2024-25	GMU 64 @ RICH 60	RICH +6.5	RICH W
Jan 8, 2024-25	RICH 58 @ GMU 64	GMU -11.5	RICH W
Mar 9, 2023-24	RICH 46 @ GMU 64	GMU -2.5	GMU W
Jan 13, 2023-24	GMU 70 @ RICH 77	RICH -2.5	RICH W
Mar 8, 2022-23	RICH 57 vs GMU 62	GMU -2.5	GMU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

George Mason

23 games played

Straight up

20-3

87% wins

Against the spread

13-10

57% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-12

48% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-387%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W L W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1057%

W L L W W W W W L L L L L W W W L W L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-1248%

U O U U O U O O U U O O O U U O O U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWOF	W 70-46	-14.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 116
Nov 7	vsWIN	W 96-90	-9.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 186
Nov 15	vsUNH	W 61-44	-24.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 105
Nov 18	vsJAX	W 79-57	-16.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 136
Nov 24	vsOHIO	W 92-69	-7.5	W +15.5	142.5	O 161
Nov 25	vsFAU	W 74-65	-4.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 29	vsJMU	W 82-66	-12.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 2	vsCOR	W 99-81	-10.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 180
Dec 6	@VT	L 62-73	+4.5	L −6.5	144.5	U 135
Dec 13	vsODU	W 73-61	-16.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 134
Dec 21	vsL-MD	W 86-79	-23.5	L −16.5	146.5	O 165
Dec 28	vsPENN	W 83-79	-16.5	L −12.5	146.5	O 162
Dec 31	@LAS	W 80-75	-8.5	L −3.5	134.5	O 155
Jan 3	vsURI	W 61-50	-6.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 111
Jan 7	@FOR	W 67-58	-5.5	W +3.5	134.5	U 125
Jan 10	vsVCU	W 86-80	+1.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 166
Jan 13	@LUC	W 82-74	-11.5	L −3.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 19	vsGW	W 69-64	-1.5	W +3.5	153.5	U 133
Jan 24	@URI	L 65-74	-1.5	L −10.5	135.5	O 139
Jan 28	vsDAV	W 60-52	-6.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 112
Jan 31	@SBU	W 77-73	-1.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 150
Feb 4	vsDUQ	L 65-71	-8.5	L −14.5	143.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsJOES	W 60-52	-6.5	W +1.5	139.5	U 112

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WOF

W 70-46

+9.5

WIN

W 96-90

−3.5

UNH

W 61-44

−7.5

JAX

W 79-57

+5.5

OHIO

W 92-69

+15.5

FAU

W 74-65

+4.5

JMU

W 82-66

+3.5

COR

W 99-81

+7.5

L 62-73

−6.5

ODU

W 73-61

−4.5

L-MD

W 86-79

−16.5

PENN

W 83-79

−12.5

LAS

W 80-75

−3.5

URI

W 61-50

+4.5

FOR

W 67-58

+3.5

VCU

W 86-80

+7.5

LUC

W 82-74

−3.5

W 69-64

+3.5

URI

L 65-74

−10.5

DAV

W 60-52

+1.5

SBU

W 77-73

+2.5

DUQ

L 65-71

−14.5

JOES

W 60-52

+1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 10avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WOF

W 70-46

−24.5

WIN

W 96-90

+39.5

UNH

W 61-44

−39.5

JAX

W 79-57

−0.5

OHIO

W 92-69

+18.5

FAU

W 74-65

−4.5

JMU

W 82-66

+6.5

COR

W 99-81

+24.5

L 62-73

−9.5

ODU

W 73-61

−10.5

L-MD

W 86-79

+18.5

PENN

W 83-79

+15.5

LAS

W 80-75

+20.5

URI

W 61-50

−28.5

FOR

W 67-58

−9.5

VCU

W 86-80

+21.5

LUC

W 82-74

+15.5

W 69-64

−20.5

URI

L 65-74

+3.5

DAV

W 60-52

−22.5

SBU

W 77-73

+7.5

DUQ

L 65-71

−7.5

JOES

W 60-52

−27.5

over 11under 12avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Richmond

23 games played

Straight up

12-11

52% wins

Against the spread

11-12

48% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

10-13

43% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-1152%

W W W W L W W W W L W L L W W L W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-1248%

W L W W L L W L W L W L L W W L W L L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

10-1343%

O O U O U U O O O U U U O O O U U U U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	vsECU	W 87-72	-5.5	W +9.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsW&M	W 90-86	-9.5	L −5.5	164.5	O 176
Nov 19	vsVMI	W 87-54	-14.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 141
Nov 22	vsGWEB	W 102-67	-19.5	W +15.5	154.5	O 169
Nov 27	vsFUR	L 72-73	-3.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 145
Nov 28	vsCLT	W 71-66	-6.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 3	@BEL	W 84-76	+6.5	W +14.5	156.5	O 160
Dec 6	vsODU	W 86-77	-12.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 163
Dec 13	vsSIU	W 93-84	-3.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 177
Dec 17	@ELON	L 70-73	-3.5	L −6.5	161.5	U 143
Dec 20	vsCIT	W 80-56	-18.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 136
Dec 28	vsCHSO	L 72-77	-11.5	L −16.5	159.5	U 149
Dec 31	vsGW	L 85-99	+2.5	L −11.5	162.5	O 184
Jan 4	@FOR	W 83-75	-2.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 158
Jan 7	@SBU	W 89-80	+6.5	W +15.5	153.5	O 169
Jan 11	vsJOES	L 65-67	-7.5	L −9.5	150.5	U 132
Jan 14	vsLAS	W 74-53	-8.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 127
Jan 17	@SLU	L 63-88	+14.5	L −10.5	162.5	U 151
Jan 21	vsURI	L 68-69	-3.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 24	@GW	L 69-85	+10.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 154
Jan 27	@VCU	L 69-77	+12.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 146
Jan 31	vsDAV	L 54-79	-1.5	L −26.5	140.5	U 133
Feb 7	@URI	L 77-82	+5.5	W +0.5	142.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+9.5

W&M

W 90-86

−5.5

VMI

W 87-54

+18.5

GWEB

W 102-67

+15.5

FUR

L 72-73

−4.5

CLT

W 71-66

−1.5

BEL

W 84-76

+14.5

ODU

W 86-77

−3.5

SIU

W 93-84

+5.5

ELON

L 70-73

−6.5

CIT

W 80-56

+5.5

CHSO

L 72-77

−16.5

L 85-99

−11.5

FOR

W 83-75

+5.5

SBU

W 89-80

+15.5

JOES

L 65-67

−9.5

LAS

W 74-53

+12.5

SLU

L 63-88

−10.5

URI

L 68-69

−4.5

L 69-85

−5.5

VCU

L 69-77

+4.5

DAV

L 54-79

−26.5

URI

L 77-82

+0.5

covered 11didn’t cover 12avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

W 87-72

+15.5

W&M

W 90-86

+11.5

VMI

W 87-54

−11.5

GWEB

W 102-67

+14.5

FUR

L 72-73

−2.5

CLT

W 71-66

−4.5

BEL

W 84-76

+3.5

ODU

W 86-77

+9.5

SIU

W 93-84

+23.5

ELON

L 70-73

−18.5

CIT

W 80-56

−10.5

CHSO

L 72-77

−10.5

L 85-99

+21.5

FOR

W 83-75

+15.5

SBU

W 89-80

+15.5

JOES

L 65-67

−18.5

LAS

W 74-53

−20.5

SLU

L 63-88

−11.5

URI

L 68-69

−7.5

L 69-85

−5.5

VCU

L 69-77

−9.5

DAV

L 54-79

−7.5

URI

L 77-82

+16.5

over 10under 13avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

George Mason Patriots at Richmond Spiders

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

George Mason

Richmond

George Mason

Richmond