George Mason Patriots at Fordham Rams: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Jan 7, 7:00 PM ETRose Hill Gym · at Fordham · Conference game

#93GMUGeorge Mason67▲ winner

Final

#100FORFordham58final

Closing lineGMU -5.5✓ GMU covered by 3.5

Closing total134.5Under by 9.5

Season records: George Mason and Fordham
GMU	This season	FOR
13-1	Record	6-6
7-7	ATS	7-5
7-7	O/U	3-9

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: GMU 70–66 FOR · ✓ GMU (65%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
GMU	23	44	67
FOR	28	30	58

1st half: GMU 23, FOR 28 (FOR by 5). The model had GMU by 2.7 and a total of 63.6 (actual 51).

Team stats

GMU		FOR
23-48 48%	Field goals	23-67 34%
1-11 9%	3-pointers	6-23 26%
20-26 77%	Free throws	6-10 60%
34 6 off	Rebounds	41 19 off
14	Assists	10
6	Steals	6
3	Blocks	2
9	Turnovers	9
17	Fouls	19
40	Points in paint	26
9	Fast-break points	8

Players

GMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kory Mincy G	37	10	5	0	4-10	0-4
Masai Troutman G	32	6	8	2	2-4	1-3
Riley Allenspach F	25	18	5	0	8-14	0-2
Jahari Long G	23	6	2	7	1-2	0-0
Malik Presley G	13	0	1	0	0-2	0-1
Bench
Fatt Hill G	24	11	6	2	1-5	0-1
Stas Sivka F	15	2	0	1	1-2	0-0
Dola Adebayo F	12	8	1	1	3-4	0-0
Emmanuel Kanga F	11	4	2	0	2-3	0-0
Nick Ellington F	8	2	1	1	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Devin Booker, Isaiah Skinn, Ryan-Preston Mendy, T.J. Prosise, Ben Woodward, Brayden O'Connor

FOR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dejour Reaves G	36	16	3	5	6-19	1-5
Akira Jacobs F	33	2	5	0	1-8	0-4
Rikus Schulte F	31	6	16	1	2-9	0-1
Jack Whitbourn C	28	14	6	0	6-11	1-2
Marcus Greene G	22	8	1	0	3-8	2-6
Bench
Louis Lesmond G	26	3	5	3	1-6	1-2
Kingston Price G	22	9	3	1	4-6	1-3
Jameson O'Toole G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Roor Akhuar, Christian Henry, Abass Bodija, Max Miller, Aidan Crotty, Ryan Pettis, Zarique Nutter, Jace Howard

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	GMU -5.5	GMU -4.3	FOR +1.2	L GMU covered
Total	134.5	135.6	Over 1.1	L Under
Projected score	—	GMU 70 · FOR 65.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	GMU -2.7	FOR -5.0
1H total	63.6	51
1H projected score	GMU 33.1 · FOR 30.4	GMU 23 · FOR 28

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GMU LLLLW	7-7	50%	0-2	7-6
FOR WWWWL	7-5	58%	4-4	2-2

Venue/role: GMU away, as favorite; FOR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
GMU UOOOU	7-7	50%	13-1
FOR UUUUO	3-9	25%	6-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GMU	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
FOR	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

GMU 2–3 FORFOR leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · GMU 1-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 26, 2024-25	FOR 64 @ GMU 74	GMU -11.5	FOR W
Feb 27, 2023-24	GMU 60 @ FOR 61	FOR +1.5	FOR W
Mar 1, 2022-23	FOR 58 @ GMU 64	GMU -3.5	GMU W
Mar 10, 2021-22	GMU 49 vs FOR 54	FOR +6.5	FOR W
Feb 20, 2021-22	GMU 47 @ FOR 50	FOR +6	FOR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

George Mason

14 games played

Straight up

13-1

93% wins

Against the spread

7-7

50% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

7-7

50% overs · avg +1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-193%

W W W W W W W W L W W W W W

5 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-750%

W L L W W W W W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

7-750%

U O U U O U O O U U O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWOF	W 70-46	-14.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 116
Nov 7	vsWIN	W 96-90	-9.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 186
Nov 15	vsUNH	W 61-44	-24.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 105
Nov 18	vsJAX	W 79-57	-16.5	W +5.5	136.5	U 136
Nov 24	vsOHIO	W 92-69	-7.5	W +15.5	142.5	O 161
Nov 25	vsFAU	W 74-65	-4.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 139
Nov 29	vsJMU	W 82-66	-12.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 148
Dec 2	vsCOR	W 99-81	-10.5	W +7.5	155.5	O 180
Dec 6	@VT	L 62-73	+4.5	L −6.5	144.5	U 135
Dec 13	vsODU	W 73-61	-16.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 134
Dec 21	vsL-MD	W 86-79	-23.5	L −16.5	146.5	O 165
Dec 28	vsPENN	W 83-79	-16.5	L −12.5	146.5	O 162
Dec 31	@LAS	W 80-75	-8.5	L −3.5	134.5	O 155
Jan 3	vsURI	W 61-50	-6.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 111

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WOF

W 70-46

+9.5

WIN

W 96-90

−3.5

UNH

W 61-44

−7.5

JAX

W 79-57

+5.5

OHIO

W 92-69

+15.5

FAU

W 74-65

+4.5

JMU

W 82-66

+3.5

COR

W 99-81

+7.5

L 62-73

−6.5

ODU

W 73-61

−4.5

L-MD

W 86-79

−16.5

PENN

W 83-79

−12.5

LAS

W 80-75

−3.5

URI

W 61-50

+4.5

covered 7didn’t cover 7avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WOF

W 70-46

−24.5

WIN

W 96-90

+39.5

UNH

W 61-44

−39.5

JAX

W 79-57

−0.5

OHIO

W 92-69

+18.5

FAU

W 74-65

−4.5

JMU

W 82-66

+6.5

COR

W 99-81

+24.5

L 62-73

−9.5

ODU

W 73-61

−10.5

L-MD

W 86-79

+18.5

PENN

W 83-79

+15.5

LAS

W 80-75

+20.5

URI

W 61-50

−28.5

over 7under 7avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Fordham

12 games played

Straight up

6-6

50% wins

Against the spread

7-5

58% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-9

25% overs · avg −8.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-650%

L W L W W L L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-558%

L L W W W L L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-925%

U U U U O U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNJIT	L 61-72	-14.5	L −25.5	147.5	U 133
Nov 11	vsWAG	W 63-61	-12.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 124
Nov 14	@IONA	L 71-76	+5.5	W +0.5	157.5	U 147
Nov 20	vsLIU	W 69-53	-4.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 122
Nov 29	vsUALB	W 88-68	-10.5	W +9.5	143.5	O 156
Nov 30	vsCOLG	L 62-72	+1.5	L −8.5	142.5	U 134
Dec 6	vsHC	L 69-70	-10.5	L −11.5	138.5	O 139
Dec 10	vsFDU	W 75-54	-11.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 129
Dec 13	vsMAN	W 82-53	-8.5	W +20.5	147.5	U 135
Dec 22	vsNHVN	W 65-47	-13.5	W +4.5	127.5	U 112
Dec 31	@DAY	L 56-63	+16.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 119
Jan 4	vsRICH	L 75-83	+2.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 158

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NJIT

L 61-72

−25.5

WAG

W 63-61

−10.5

IONA

L 71-76

+0.5

LIU

W 69-53

+11.5

UALB

W 88-68

+9.5

COLG

L 62-72

−8.5

L 69-70

−11.5

FDU

W 75-54

+9.5

MAN

W 82-53

+20.5

NHVN

W 65-47

+4.5

DAY

L 56-63

+9.5

RICH

L 75-83

−5.5

covered 7didn’t cover 5avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NJIT

L 61-72

−14.5

WAG

W 63-61

−15.5

IONA

L 71-76

−10.5

LIU

W 69-53

−23.5

UALB

W 88-68

+12.5

COLG

L 62-72

−8.5

L 69-70

+0.5

FDU

W 75-54

−12.5

MAN

W 82-53

−12.5

NHVN

W 65-47

−15.5

DAY

L 56-63

−20.5

RICH

L 75-83

+15.5

over 3under 9avg −8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

George Mason Patriots at Fordham Rams

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

George Mason

Fordham

George Mason

Fordham