1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Dec 14
  3. STET @ CIN
NCAAB · Mon, Dec 14

Stetson Hatters at Cincinnati Bearcats

Fifth Third Arena · at Cincinnati
#303STETStetson
@
#30CINCincinnati
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
STETThis seasonCIN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CIN 89–60 · win probability CIN 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CIN has more of the edges

STET 1, CIN 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CINBig
CIN offense vs STET defense
Offense 49th of 366 against a defense 328th, on the model’s ratings
CINBig
STET offense vs CIN defense
Offense 273rd of 366 against a defense 24th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
STET has played the 220th-hardest schedule, CIN the 39th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CINBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: STET 26.6%, CIN 30.6%. Defensive: STET 68.2%, CIN 72.7%
CINBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: STET 18.2%, CIN 17.0%. Forced: STET 15.1%, CIN 18.2%
CINSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: STET 53.1 and allows 55.2; CIN 50.5 and allows 47.4
STETSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: STET 51%, CIN 1%. Transfers in: STET 3, CIN 12. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
CINSmall
Home court
CIN at home. This season: CIN 0-0 at home, STET 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
STET hits 36.0% and allows 34.5%; CIN hits 33.9% and allows 31.0%. Threes are 44.8% and 43.8% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: STET plays 68.2 a game (221st fastest), CIN 69.4 (152nd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: STET 32.5, CIN 29.4. Allowed: STET 30.4, CIN 30.0
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CIN -28.7—
Total—148.3—
Projected score—STET 59.8 · CIN 88.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCIN -16.9—
1H total69.4—
1H projected scoreSTET 26.2 · CIN 43.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Cincinnati has the better starters

Position by position: Stetson 0, Cincinnati 4, even 1
StetsonBetterCincinnati
G D. Macgregor4.8 pts · 2 reb · 3.8 ast Score 26
CINBig
G J. Campbell TR19.3 pts · 4.4 reb · 5.1 ast Score 95
F C. Kuhl13.2 pts · 6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 87
Even
G T. Carson TR12.2 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 75
F F. Sheridan7.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 21
CINBig
G M. Collins TR17.3 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 94
F M. Myles TR7.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 66
CINSmall
G T. Riley TR15 pts · 3.9 reb · 4.4 ast Score 92
F A. Doyle5.1 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.9 ast Score 9
CINBig
F T. Tejada TR17.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 91
StetsonBetterCincinnati
STET offense273rd of 366 · -8.3
CINBig
CIN defense24th of 366 · +4.9
STET defense328th of 366 · -8.5
CINBig
CIN offense49th of 366 · +3.7
Backcourt-1.4 · 1 player
CINBig
Backcourt+12.2 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.9 · 4 players
CINBig
Frontcourt+4.0 · 1 player
Bench-5.1 · 5 players
CINBig
Bench+6.3 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestSTET betterCIN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Stetson
Guards
D. Macgregor19 minS. Morgan14 minT. Sucatzky13 min · TRM. McGowan2 minI. Jones2 minB. Gladieux2 min
Forwards
C. Kuhl24 minF. Sheridan23 minM. Myles21 min · TRA. Doyle17 minM. Entenmann12 min · TRJ. Boyomo KeediNew
Cincinnati
Guards
J. Campbell35 min · TRT. Carson33 min · TRM. Collins31 min · TRT. Riley28 min · TRM. Colvin27 min · TRA. Fleming26 min · TR
Forwards
T. Tejada36 min · TRR. Allenspach25 min · TRJ. Hastings23 min · TRA. Elamin20 min · TRD. VadenNewD. IwezeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
STETCIN
Scoring
71.9 #246Points per game73.1 #221
1.06 #231Points per possession1.05 #243
68.2 #221Pace (possessions)69.4 #152
Shooting
53.1 #96Effective FG%50.5 #213
36.0 #593-point %33.9 #175
44.8 #753-point attempt rate43.8 #94
32.5 #250Free throw rate29.4 #323
Possessions
18.2 #284Turnover rate17.0 #203
26.6 #308Offensive rebound rate30.6 #174
14.7 #105Assists per game16.6 #35
Defense
79.9 #315Points allowed67.6 #27
1.17 #339Points allowed per possession0.97 #9
55.2 #338Opponent effective FG%47.4 #27
34.5 #223Opponent 3-point %31.0 #35
15.1 #278Turnovers forced18.2 #89
68.2 #250Defensive rebound rate72.7 #45
6.2 #213Steals per game6.3 #208
2.0 #344Blocks per game4.2 #53
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Stetson

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Austin Peay60–69
  • Wvs E Kentucky92–76
  • Wvs FGCU78–63
  • L@ Jacksonville85–89
  • Wvs North Florida76–71

A week or more of rest.

Cincinnati

18-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · Big 12 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UCF65–66
  • Wvs Utah73–66
  • L@ TCU63–73
  • Wvs BYU90–68
  • Wvs Oklahoma St91–68

A week or more of rest.