Austin Peay Governors at Stetson Hatters: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 10, 2:00 PM ETInsight Credit Union Arena at Edmunds Center · at Stetson · Conference game

#210APSUAustin Peay81▲ winner

Final

#303STETStetson69final

Closing lineAPSU -9.5✓ APSU covered by 2.5

Closing total150.5Under by 0.5

Season records: Austin Peay and Stetson
APSU	This season	STET
7-5	Record	4-10
7-5	ATS	6-8
4-8	O/U	6-8

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: APSU 77–69 STET · ✓ APSU (76%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
APSU	43	38	81
STET	31	38	69

1st half: APSU 43, STET 31 (APSU by 12). The model had APSU by 4.9 and a total of 68.6 (actual 74).

Team stats

APSU		STET
28-58 48%	Field goals	26-64 41%
7-19 37%	3-pointers	10-34 29%
18-32 56%	Free throws	7-11 64%
36 8 off	Rebounds	41 13 off
16	Assists	19
12	Steals	5
1	Blocks	3
5	Turnovers	14
16	Fouls	20
32	Points in paint	30
15	Fast-break points	7

Players

APSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Collin Parker F	40	27	6	2	12-24	2-5
Tate McCubbin G	36	11	4	2	2-8	2-5
Zyree Collins PG	35	17	7	3	6-11	1-2
Rashaud Marshall F	29	12	7	3	4-5	0-0
Matt Enright PG	13	1	2	1	0-1	0-1
Bench
Anton Brookshire PG	20	8	2	2	2-2	2-2
Creighton Morisch F	12	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Ja'Corey Robinson G	8	5	2	3	2-5	0-2
Tyler Wagner G	7	0	3	0	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Travis Torain, Quan Lax, Terrell Gaines, Hansel Enmanuel

STET	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ethan Copeland G	36	12	12	0	4-16	4-15
Finley Sheridan F	31	11	7	3	4-9	2-5
Calvin Sirmans III G	31	11	0	8	2-8	1-2
Collin Kuhl F	28	18	6	2	9-12	0-1
Jake Johnson G	26	10	7	1	4-10	2-7
Bench
Alex Doyle F	18	5	0	0	2-5	1-4
Daniel Macgregor G	14	2	1	5	1-3	0-0
Matar Diop F	9	0	5	0	0-0	0-0
Janusz Ratowski F	3	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
J.R. Leonard G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Sean Morgan G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ben Gladieux, Jamie Phillips Jr., Miller McGowan, Isaac Jones

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	APSU -9.5	APSU -8.0	STET +1.5	L APSU covered
Total	150.5	146.4	Under 4.1	W Under
Projected score	—	APSU 77.2 · STET 69.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	APSU -4.9	APSU -12.0
1H total	68.6	74
1H projected score	APSU 36.7 · STET 31.8	APSU 43 · STET 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APSU LWWLW	7-5	58%	4-4	3-1
STET LLWLW	6-8	43%	3-1	6-8

Venue/role: APSU away, as favorite; STET home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
APSU UOOUU	4-8	33%	7-5
STET UOUOO	6-8	43%	4-10

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APSU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
STET	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

APSU 1–3 STETSTET leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · APSU 3-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 15, 2024-25	STET 63 @ APSU 76	APSU -9.5	APSU W
Mar 10, 2023-24	APSU 91 @ STET 94	STET -4.5	APSU W
Jan 25, 2023-24	APSU 82 @ STET 83	STET -3.5	APSU W
Feb 22, 2022-23	APSU 51 @ STET 76	STET -10.5	STET W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Austin Peay

12 games played

Straight up

7-5

58% wins

Against the spread

7-5

58% covers · avg +3.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-8

33% overs · avg −2.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-558%

W L W L L W L L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-558%

W L W W L W L L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-833%

U U U U O U O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@AF	W 74-54	-1.5	W +18.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 11	@WYO	L 65-79	+5.5	L −8.5	153.5	U 144
Nov 15	@UNCG	W 69-63	+1.5	W +7.5	145.5	U 132
Nov 18	@MISS	L 65-72	+20.5	W +13.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 21	@TLSA	L 75-84	+8.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 159
Nov 25	vsNIU	W 77-59	-6.5	W +11.5	147.5	U 136
Dec 3	@KENT	L 84-96	+8.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 180
Dec 7	@RGV	L 50-63	+2.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 113
Dec 12	vsETSU	W 76-75	+3.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 151
Jan 1	vsUNF	W 102-83	-15.5	W +3.5	162.5	O 185
Jan 3	vsJAX	W 71-68	-10.5	L −7.5	140.5	U 139
Jan 8	@FGCU	W 82-71	+3.5	W +14.5	153.5	U 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 74-54

+18.5

WYO

L 65-79

−8.5

UNCG

W 69-63

+7.5

MISS

L 65-72

+13.5

TLSA

L 75-84

−0.5

NIU

W 77-59

+11.5

KENT

L 84-96

−3.5

RGV

L 50-63

−10.5

ETSU

W 76-75

+4.5

UNF

W 102-83

+3.5

JAX

W 71-68

−7.5

FGCU

W 82-71

+14.5

covered 7didn’t cover 5avg +3.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 74-54

−8.5

WYO

L 65-79

−9.5

UNCG

W 69-63

−13.5

MISS

L 65-72

−8.5

TLSA

L 75-84

+10.5

NIU

W 77-59

−11.5

KENT

L 84-96

+26.5

RGV

L 50-63

−38.5

ETSU

W 76-75

+7.5

UNF

W 102-83

+22.5

JAX

W 71-68

−1.5

FGCU

W 82-71

−0.5

over 4under 8avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Stetson

14 games played

Straight up

4-10

29% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-8

43% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-1029%

L L L W W L L L L L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

6-843%

L L W W W L L L W L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

6-843%

O O U U O U U U U U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@URI	L 62-93	+18.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 10	@MIA	L 61-102	+34.5	L −6.5	161.5	O 163
Nov 16	@WCU	L 65-76	+12.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 141
Nov 19	vsHOW	W 64-60	+1.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 124
Nov 22	vsVMI	W 99-80	+2.5	W +21.5	148.5	O 179
Nov 25	vsWRST	L 62-79	+9.5	L −7.5	147.5	U 141
Nov 29	vsSUU	L 68-70	+1.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 138
Nov 30	@RMU	L 62-80	+11.5	L −6.5	142.5	U 142
Dec 2	@GCU	L 45-67	+24.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 112
Dec 6	@SC	L 51-82	+22.5	L −8.5	142.5	U 133
Dec 22	@OU	L 54-107	+31.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 161
Jan 1	@UNA	W 70-67	+9.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 137
Jan 3	@CARK	L 73-93	+11.5	L −8.5	147.5	O 166
Jan 8	vsLIP	W 91-83	+11.5	W +19.5	150.5	O 174

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

URI

L 62-93

−12.5

MIA

L 61-102

−6.5

WCU

L 65-76

+1.5

HOW

W 64-60

+5.5

VMI

W 99-80

+21.5

WRST

L 62-79

−7.5

SUU

L 68-70

−0.5

RMU

L 62-80

−6.5

GCU

L 45-67

+2.5

L 51-82

−8.5

L 54-107

−21.5

UNA

W 70-67

+12.5

CARK

L 73-93

−8.5

LIP

W 91-83

+19.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

URI

L 62-93

+2.5

MIA

L 61-102

+1.5

WCU

L 65-76

−14.5

HOW

W 64-60

−25.5

VMI

W 99-80

+30.5

WRST

L 62-79

−6.5

SUU

L 68-70

−10.5

RMU

L 62-80

−0.5

GCU

L 45-67

−29.5

L 51-82

−9.5

L 54-107

+12.5

UNA

W 70-67

−5.5

CARK

L 73-93

+18.5

LIP

W 91-83

+23.5

over 6under 8avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Austin Peay Governors at Stetson Hatters

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Austin Peay

Stetson

Austin Peay

Stetson