1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Dec 14
  3. COFC @ BEL
NCAAB · Mon, Dec 14

Charleston Cougars at Belmont Bruins

Curb Event Center Arena · at Belmont
#117COFCCharleston
@
#138BELBelmont
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
COFCThis seasonBEL
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BEL 79–76 · win probability BEL 60%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 154.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BEL has more of the edges

COFC 2, BEL 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
COFCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: COFC 41.2, BEL 32.5. Allowed: COFC 26.1, BEL 30.7
BELBig
Three-pointers
COFC hits 30.6% and allows 32.6%; BEL hits 41.0% and allows 34.2%. Threes are 38.1% and 45.7% of their shots
BELSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: COFC 50.5 and allows 49.2; BEL 61.0 and allows 49.9
COFCSmall
COFC offense vs BEL defense
Offense 108th of 366 against a defense 192nd, on the model’s ratings
BELSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: COFC 29.9%, BEL 28.8%. Defensive: COFC 67.7%, BEL 70.8%
Context
Schedule so far
COFC has played the 200th-hardest schedule, BEL the 146th. A record against a soft schedule means less
BELSmall
Home court
BEL at home. This season: BEL 0-0 at home, COFC 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: COFC plays 68.8 a game (192nd fastest), BEL 70.5 (94th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: COFC 21%, BEL 41%. Transfers in: COFC 8, BEL 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
BEL offense vs COFC defense
Offense 118th of 366 against a defense 143rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: COFC 15.7%, BEL 18.0%. Forced: COFC 14.8%, BEL 17.4%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BEL -3.0—
Total—154.3—
Projected score—COFC 75.6 · BEL 78.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBEL -1.7—
1H total72.1—
1H projected scoreCOFC 35.2 · BEL 36.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Charleston has the better starters

Position by position: Charleston 2, Belmont 0, even 3
CharlestonBetterBelmont
G T. Johnson TR19.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 5 ast Score 96
COFCBig
G J. Jenkins8.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 42
G B. Bradford TR13.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 77
Even
G J. Smiley8.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.6 ast Score 81
G E. Ellis TR8.6 pts · 2.8 reb · 2 ast Score 61
COFCBig
G I. West2.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 7
G M. Kalu8.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 33
Even
F K. Fish TR7.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47
G X. Abreu TR12.6 pts · 2.7 reb · 1 ast Score 83
Even
F E. Dillon7.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 76
CharlestonBetterBelmont
COFC offense108th of 366 · -1.6
COFCSmall
BEL defense192nd of 366 · -4.5
COFC defense143rd of 366 · -3.1
Even
BEL offense118th of 366 · -2.7
Backcourt+5.0 · 5 players
COFCBig
Backcourt-2.4 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
Bench-2.7 · 5 players
BELSmall
Bench-0.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestCOFC betterBEL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Charleston
Guards
T. Johnson32 min · TRB. Bradford28 min · TRE. Ellis27 min · TRM. Kalu27 minX. Abreu21 min · TRM. Green15 min · TR
Forwards
T. Scott21 min · TRW. Mortimore9 minN. VirginioNew
Centers
B. Pierce7 min · TR
Belmont
Guards
J. Jenkins24 minJ. Smiley17 minI. West17 minM. Zobrist5 min · TRC. Haynes5 minA. Ristic3 min · TR
Forwards
K. Fish19 min · TRE. Dillon16 minG. Lemke2 minC. KnowlesNewC. GersmehlNew
Centers
V. Neugebauer8 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
COFCBEL
Scoring
75.3 #157Points per game83.5 #23
1.09 #155Points per possession1.18 #33
68.8 #192Pace (possessions)70.5 #94
Shooting
50.5 #212Effective FG%61.0 #1
30.6 #3313-point %41.0 #1
38.1 #2133-point attempt rate45.7 #51
41.2 #43Free throw rate32.5 #248
Possessions
15.7 #118Turnover rate18.0 #272
29.9 #204Offensive rebound rate28.8 #241
13.5 #180Assists per game18.5 #6
Defense
73.9 #153Points allowed74.1 #158
1.08 #146Points allowed per possession1.05 #95
49.2 #74Opponent effective FG%49.9 #93
32.6 #90Opponent 3-point %34.2 #197
14.8 #308Turnovers forced17.4 #126
67.7 #273Defensive rebound rate70.8 #118
5.7 #280Steals per game6.0 #241
4.6 #29Blocks per game3.5 #151
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Charleston

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-5 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Towson56–81
  • W@ UNC Wilmington79–76
  • W@ Hampton85–71
  • Wvs Monmouth74–63
  • W@ NC A&T74–61

A week or more of rest.

Belmont

25-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Drake79–100
  • L@ Illinois St74–81
  • Wvs Evansville98–64
  • Wvs Indiana St87–70
  • W@ Murray St87–70

A week or more of rest.