Belmont Bruins at Indiana State Sycamores: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Dec 29, 7:00 PM ETHulman Center · at Indiana St · Conference game

#138BELBelmont80final

Final

#207INSTIndiana St81▲ winner

Closing lineBEL -7.5✓ INST covered by 8.5

Closing total159.5Over by 1.5

Season records: Belmont and Indiana St
BEL	This season	INST
11-1	Record	5-6
7-5	ATS	6-5
5-7	O/U	4-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BEL 83–77 INST · ✗ BEL (70%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
BEL	41	30	9	80
INST	36	35	10	81

1st half: BEL 41, INST 36 (BEL by 5). The model had BEL by 3.7 and a total of 74.8 (actual 77).

Team stats

BEL		INST
27-63 43%	Field goals	28-61 46%
12-29 41%	3-pointers	12-30 40%
14-17 82%	Free throws	13-26 50%
37 10 off	Rebounds	36 12 off
17	Assists	24
5	Steals	8
8	Blocks	2
16	Turnovers	14
23	Fouls	16
28	Points in paint	30
13	Fast-break points	15

Players

BEL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tyler Lundblade G	41	26	3	0	8-17	7-14
Drew Scharnowski F	38	14	7	2	4-9	0-0
Nic McClain G	31	7	5	6	2-9	1-3
Brigham Rogers F	26	12	4	2	6-8	0-0
Jabez Jenkins G	21	2	0	1	1-3	0-0
Bench
Isaiah West G	21	0	3	3	0-0	0-0
Eoin Dillon F	20	11	7	1	4-6	3-5
Jack Smiley G	18	1	3	2	0-8	0-5
Win Miller G	9	7	1	0	2-2	1-1

Did not play: Keith Robbins, Graydon Lemke, Sam Orme, Jake Dykstra, Cooper Haynes, Aidan Noyes

INST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Camp Wagner G	39	17	3	3	5-11	5-8
Jo Van Buggenhout G	35	7	2	5	3-6	1-3
Ian Scott F	35	14	9	6	4-11	1-4
Xavier Hall G	32	9	2	3	2-9	1-6
Derek Vorst C	28	12	3	2	5-7	0-0
Bench
Sterling Young G	24	13	1	2	5-8	3-5
Enel St. Bernard F	15	4	4	1	2-4	0-0
Hunter Harding C	11	5	2	1	2-3	1-2
Bruno Alocen G	6	0	2	1	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Caden Huttenlocker, Martin Kaupanger, Jayan Walker, Sivert Waerstad Nordheim, Cooper Bean, Zyair Greene, Markus Harding

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BEL -7.5	BEL -5.9	INST +1.6	W INST covered
Total	159.5	159.9	Over 0.4	W Over
Projected score	—	BEL 82.9 · INST 77

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BEL -3.7	BEL -5.0
1H total	74.8	77
1H projected score	BEL 39.3 · INST 35.6	BEL 41 · INST 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BEL LWLLW	7-5	58%	4-1	6-5
INST LWWLL	6-5	55%	3-1	3-4

Venue/role: BEL away, as favorite; INST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BEL OUOOU	5-7	42%	11-1
INST OUUOU	4-7	36%	5-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BEL	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
INST	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 6 since 2021-22

BEL 3–3 INSTSeries tied · 6 games since 2021-22 · BEL has won the last 2 meetings · BEL 2-4 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 22, 2024-25	INST 75 @ BEL 77	BEL -5.5	INST W
Jan 11, 2024-25	BEL 84 @ INST 79	INST -3.5	BEL W
Jan 31, 2023-24	INST 78 @ BEL 72	BEL +8.5	BEL W
Jan 13, 2023-24	BEL 64 @ INST 94	INST -11.5	INST W
Mar 3, 2022-23	INST 94 vs BEL 91	BEL +2.5	INST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Belmont

12 games played

Straight up

11-1

92% wins

Against the spread

7-5

58% covers · avg +5.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-7

42% overs · avg −1.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-192%

W W W W W W W L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

7-558%

W L W L W W W L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-742%

U O U U U U O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAF	W 79-63	-15.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 8	vsTNST	W 87-79	-13.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 166
Nov 15	@ORU	W 83-60	-7.5	W +15.5	171.5	U 143
Nov 19	vsLIP	W 75-68	-12.5	L −5.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 24	vsSFPA	W 94-57	-21.5	W +15.5	157.5	U 151
Nov 26	vsTOL	W 87-72	-4.5	W +10.5	163.5	U 159
Nov 30	@COFC	W 96-73	-2.5	W +20.5	152.5	O 169
Dec 3	vsRICH	L 76-84	-6.5	L −14.5	156.5	O 160
Dec 7	@MTSU	W 83-62	-3.5	W +17.5	153.5	U 145
Dec 13	vsUIC	W 87-84	-12.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 171
Dec 16	@EVAN	W 83-78	-8.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 161
Dec 19	@UCI	W 84-58	+1.5	W +27.5	150.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 79-63

+0.5

TNST

W 87-79

−5.5

ORU

W 83-60

+15.5

LIP

W 75-68

−5.5

SFPA

W 94-57

+15.5

TOL

W 87-72

+10.5

COFC

W 96-73

+20.5

RICH

L 76-84

−14.5

MTSU

W 83-62

+17.5

UIC

W 87-84

−9.5

EVAN

W 83-78

−3.5

UCI

W 84-58

+27.5

covered 7didn’t cover 5avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 79-63

−2.5

TNST

W 87-79

+7.5

ORU

W 83-60

−28.5

LIP

W 75-68

−15.5

SFPA

W 94-57

−6.5

TOL

W 87-72

−4.5

COFC

W 96-73

+16.5

RICH

L 76-84

+3.5

MTSU

W 83-62

−8.5

UIC

W 87-84

+16.5

EVAN

W 83-78

+13.5

UCI

W 84-58

−8.5

over 5under 7avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Indiana St

11 games played

Straight up

5-6

45% wins

Against the spread

6-5

55% covers · avg +0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-7

36% overs · avg −7.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-645%

L W L W W L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-555%

L W L W W W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-736%

O U U U U O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CLT	L 76-92	+4.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 10	@SIUE	W 64-55	+2.5	W +11.5	159.5	U 119
Nov 14	@DUKE	L 62-100	+37.5	L −0.5	163.5	U 162
Nov 19	vsLT	W 60-51	-3.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 111
Nov 22	vsBALL	W 70-52	-7.5	W +10.5	154.5	U 122
Nov 26	@LT	L 73-75	+2.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsALCN	L 74-81	-12.5	L −19.5	152.5	O 155
Dec 7	vsUSI	W 77-55	-11.5	W +10.5	158.5	U 132
Dec 14	@MILW	W 70-68	+2.5	W +4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 18	vsBRAD	L 99-108	+5.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 207
Dec 21	@ILST	L 65-85	+13.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

−11.5

SIUE

W 64-55

+11.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−0.5

W 60-51

+5.5

BALL

W 70-52

+10.5

L 73-75

+0.5

ALCN

L 74-81

−19.5

USI

W 77-55

+10.5

MILW

W 70-68

+4.5

BRAD

L 99-108

−3.5

ILST

L 65-85

−6.5

covered 6didn’t cover 5avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CLT

L 76-92

+15.5

SIUE

W 64-55

−40.5

DUKE

L 62-100

−1.5

W 60-51

−36.5

BALL

W 70-52

−32.5

L 73-75

+6.5

ALCN

L 74-81

+2.5

USI

W 77-55

−26.5

MILW

W 70-68

−21.5

BRAD

L 99-108

+56.5

ILST

L 65-85

−2.5

over 4under 7avg −7.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Belmont Bruins at Indiana State Sycamores

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Belmont

Indiana St

Belmont

Indiana St