CEFCU Arena · at Illinois St · Conference game
Closing line
ILST -13.5✓ ILST covered by 6.5
ILST -13.5✓ ILST covered by 6.5Closing total152.5Under by 2.5
 INST | This season | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| 5-5 | Record | 8-3 |
| 6-4 | ATS | 7-4 |
| 4-6 | O/U | 5-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: INST 71–82 ILST · ✓ ILST (84%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| INST | 25 | 40 | 65 |
| ILST | 42 | 43 | 85 |
1st half: INST 25, ILST 42 (ILST by 17). The model had ILST by 6.6 and a total of 71.7 (actual 67).
Team stats
| INST | ILST | |
|---|---|---|
| 20-46 43% | Field goals | 34-65 52% |
| 9-24 38% | 3-pointers | 5-16 31% |
| 16-27 59% | Free throws | 12-15 80% |
| 28 2 off | Rebounds | 37 8 off |
| 11 | Assists | 16 |
| 4 | Steals | 6 |
| 4 | Blocks | 1 |
| 11 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 19 |
| 22 | Points in paint | 42 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 3 |
Players
| INST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camp Wagner G | 33 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-5 |
| Xavier Hall G | 31 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 4-9 | 1-5 |
| Ian Scott F | 31 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 6-10 | 3-5 |
| Derek Vorst C | 28 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Jo Van Buggenhout G | 19 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Enel St. Bernard F | 17 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bruno Alocen G | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Sterling Young G | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Cooper Bean G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Sivert Waerstad Nordheim G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jayan Walker F | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Caden Huttenlocker G | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Hunter Harding, Zyair Greene, Markus Harding, Martin Kaupanger
| ILST | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Kinziger G | 29 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 5-9 | 0-2 |
| Ty'Reek Coleman G | 25 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-1 |
| Boden Skunberg G | 22 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 3-5 | 2-2 |
| Chase Walker F | 21 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 8-13 | 0-0 |
| Ty Pence G | 18 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 6-8 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Brandon Lieb F | 19 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Landon Moore G | 18 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Jack Daugherty F | 17 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
| Mason Klabo G | 16 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4-6 | 0-2 |
| Landon Wolf G | 13 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2-8 | 0-2 |
| Ty Blake G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Isaac Ericksen, Nick Allen, Cameron Barnes
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketILST -13.5
ModelILST -11.2
Model edgeINST +2.3
L ILST covered
Total
Market152.5
Model153.2
Model edgeOver 0.7
L Under
Projected score
INST 71 · ILST 82.2
INST 65 · ILST 85
Win probability
ILST 84%
1st half
Spread
ILST -6.6
ILST -17.0
Total
71.7
67 points
Projected score
INST 32.6 · ILST 39.1
INST 25 · ILST 42
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenILST -11.5
2 → ILST
CloseILST -13.5
2 pts toward ILST
Total
Open148.5
▲ 4
Close152.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
INST +625 · ILST -950
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ILST -11.5 · closed ILST -13.5 · moved 2 toward ILSTmodel ILST -11
model ILST -11
Opened 148.5 · closed 152.5 · moved 4 upmodel 153
model 153
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| INST | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
| ILST | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 8 since 2021-22
INST 4–4 ILSTSeries tied · 8 games since 2021-22 · INST 4-3-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024-25 | ILST 76 @ INST 85 | INST +0.5 | INST W |
| Jan 21, 2024-25 | INST 81 @ ILST 85 | ILST -6.5 | INST W |
| Feb 13, 2023-24 | ILST 80 @ INST 67 | INST -17.5 | ILST W |
| Feb 18, 2022-23 | ILST 64 @ INST 80 | INST -14.5 | INST W |
| Jan 4, 2022-23 | INST 76 @ ILST 67 | ILST +6.5 | INST W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Indiana St
10 games played
Straight up
5-5
50% wins
Against the spread
6-4
60% covers · avg +0.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-6
40% overs · avg −7.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | @ CLT | L 76-92 | +4.5 | L −11.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 10 | @ SIUE | W 64-55 | +2.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | U 119 |
| Nov 14 | @ DUKE | L 62-100 | +37.5 | L −0.5 | 163.5 | U 162 |
| Nov 19 | vs LT | W 60-51 | -3.5 | W +5.5 | 147.5 | U 111 |
| Nov 22 | vs BALL | W 70-52 | -7.5 | W +10.5 | 154.5 | U 122 |
| Nov 26 | @LT | L 73-75 | +2.5 | W +0.5 | 141.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs ALCN | L 74-81 | -12.5 | L −19.5 | 152.5 | O 155 |
| Dec 7 | vs USI | W 77-55 | -11.5 | W +10.5 | 158.5 | U 132 |
| Dec 14 | @ MILW | W 70-68 | +2.5 | W +4.5 | 159.5 | U 138 |
| Dec 18 | vs BRAD | L 99-108 | +5.5 | L −3.5 | 150.5 | O 207 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@CLT
CLTL 76-92
−11.5
10
@SIUE
SIUEW 64-55
+11.5
14
@DUKE
DUKEL 62-100
−0.5
19
vsLT
LTW 60-51
+5.5
22
vsBALL
BALLW 70-52
+10.5
26
@LT
LTL 73-75
+0.5
28
vsALCN
ALCNL 74-81
−19.5
7
vsUSI
USIW 77-55
+10.5
14
@MILW
MILWW 70-68
+4.5
18
vsBRAD
BRADL 99-108
−3.5
covered 6didn’t cover 4avg +0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@CLT
CLTL 76-92
+15.5
10
@SIUE
SIUEW 64-55
−40.5
14
@DUKE
DUKEL 62-100
−1.5
19
vsLT
LTW 60-51
−36.5
22
vsBALL
BALLW 70-52
−32.5
26
@LT
LTL 73-75
+6.5
28
vsALCN
ALCNL 74-81
+2.5
7
vsUSI
USIW 77-55
−26.5
14
@MILW
MILWW 70-68
−21.5
18
vsBRAD
BRADL 99-108
+56.5
over 4under 6avg −7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Illinois St
11 games played
Straight up
8-3
73% wins
Against the spread
7-4
64% covers · avg +6.4 pts vs the line
Over / Under
5-6
45% overs · avg −1.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | @ OHIO | L 68-72 | +1.5 | L −2.5 | 161.5 | U 140 |
| Nov 9 | vs COR | W 76-65 | -6.5 | W +4.5 | 164.5 | U 141 |
| Nov 14 | vs USC | L 67-87 | +15.5 | L −4.5 | 155.5 | U 154 |
| Nov 16 | @ LBSU | W 82-80 | -8.5 | L −6.5 | 141.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 23 | vs CCU | W 94-42 | -12.5 | W +39.5 | 146.5 | U 136 |
| Nov 27 | vsCLT | W 79-69 | -5.5 | W +4.5 | 139.5 | O 148 |
| Nov 28 | vs FUR | W 72-65 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 145.5 | U 137 |
| Dec 3 | vs EKU | W 89-78 | -12.5 | L −1.5 | 154.5 | O 167 |
| Dec 6 | vs CHST | W 95-53 | -20.5 | W +21.5 | 144.5 | O 148 |
| Dec 13 | vs USU | L 78-83 | +8.5 | W +3.5 | 148.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 18 | @ SIU | W 75-68 | +1.5 | W +8.5 | 153.5 | U 143 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 68-72
−2.5
9
vsCOR
CORW 76-65
+4.5
14
vsUSC
USCL 67-87
−4.5
16
@LBSU
LBSUW 82-80
−6.5
23
vsCCU
CCUW 94-42
+39.5
27
vsCLT
CLTW 79-69
+4.5
28
vsFUR
FURW 72-65
+3.5
3
vsEKU
EKUW 89-78
−1.5
6
vsCHST
CHSTW 95-53
+21.5
13
vsUSU
USUL 78-83
+3.5
18
@SIU
SIUW 75-68
+8.5
covered 7didn’t cover 4avg +6.4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
6
@OHIO
OHIOL 68-72
−21.5
9
vsCOR
CORW 76-65
−23.5
14
vsUSC
USCL 67-87
−1.5
16
@LBSU
LBSUW 82-80
+20.5
23
vsCCU
CCUW 94-42
−10.5
27
vsCLT
CLTW 79-69
+8.5
28
vsFUR
FURW 72-65
−8.5
3
vsEKU
EKUW 89-78
+12.5
6
vsCHST
CHSTW 95-53
+3.5
13
vsUSU
USUL 78-83
+12.5
18
@SIU
SIUW 75-68
−10.5
over 5under 6avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Indiana St
5-5 overall · 0-1 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Bradley99–108
- W@ Milwaukee70–68
- Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles77–55
- Lvs Alcorn St74–81
- L@ Louisiana Tech73–75
3 days since their last game.
Illinois St
8-3 overall · 1-0 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ S Illinois75–68
- Lvs Utah State78–83
- Wvs Chicago St95–53
- Wvs E Kentucky89–78
- Wvs Furman72–65
3 days since their last game.