Hulman Center · at Indiana St
#141CLTCharlotte
@
#207INSTIndiana St
LineCLT -4.5moved 1 toward CLT
Total152.5no move
Season records: Charlotte and Indiana St
CLTThis seasonINST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLT 75–74 · win probability CLT 53%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
Line
CLT -4.5
moved 1 toward CLT
Total
152.5
model 149.1 · Under by 3.5
Model edge
INST by 3.5
model vs market
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLT has more of the edges

CLT 3, INST 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
CLTSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CLT 33.9%, INST 26.2%. Defensive: CLT 67.5%, INST 68.2%
CLTSmall
CLT offense vs INST defense
Offense 164th of 366 against a defense 267th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: CLT plays 65.5 a game (331st fastest), INST 69.7 (131st). Faster games mean more points
INSTSmall
Home court
INST at home. This season: INST 0-0 at home, CLT 0-0 away
CLTSmall
Three-pointers
CLT hits 35.2% and allows 33.5%; INST hits 31.6% and allows 31.2%. Threes are 45.4% and 45.2% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
CLT has played the 113th-hardest schedule, INST the 149th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
INST offense vs CLT defense
Offense 162nd of 366 against a defense 129th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CLT 10%, INST 0%. Transfers in: CLT 7, INST 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: CLT 36.4, INST 27.4. Allowed: CLT 36.2, INST 28.7
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: CLT 53.4 and allows 50.9; INST 52.8 and allows 50.2
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CLT 18.1%, INST 19.5%. Forced: CLT 13.6%, INST 14.9%

How games like this went

Division I games since 2023-24, closing lines
SituationGamesFavorite wonFavorite coveredWent over
Road favorites of 3 to 6.5154367%51%50%
Non-conference games at this spread173667%50%49%
Lines that moved 1+ toward the favorite676375%50%51%
Games with a total of 150 to 154.5275575%51%50%

Market

Open → current
Spread
1 pt toward CLT
Total
No change since the open
Moneyline
CLT -192 · INST +160
Line movement
Median of 8 sportsbooks, pre-tip-off · tap a dot
Opened CLT -3.5 · now CLT -4.5 · moved 1 toward CLTmodel CLT -1
Opened 152.5 · unchangedmodel 149
Openline modelNow

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money
Over 152.5TotalUnder 152.5
Bets
Money
CLTWinnerINST
Bets
Money

Books

8 sportsbooks · current prices
BookSpreadTotalMoneyline
CLTINSTOverUnderCLTINST
BetMGMMGM+4.5-110-4.5-110152.5-110152.5-110-190+155
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag+4.5-115-4.5-105152.5-110152.5-110——
BetRiversBetRivers+2.5-155-2.5+120152.5-110152.5-115-215+165
BetUSBetUS+4.5-115-4.5-105152.5-110152.5-110——
BovadaBovada+4.5-110-4.5-110152-115152-105-185+160
DraftKingsDK+4.5-108-4.5-112152.5-110152.5-110-192+160
FanDuelFD+4.5-110-4.5-110152.5-114152.5-106-194+160
LowVig.agLowVig.ag+4.5-111-4.5-101152.5-108152.5-108——

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
SpreadCLT -4.5CLT -0.8INST +3.7
Total152.5149.1Under 3.4
Projected score—CLT 74.9 · INST 74.1

1st-half model

ModelActual
1H spreadCLT -0.6—
1H total69.7—
1H projected scoreCLT 35.1 · INST 34.6—

Charlotte has the better starters

Position by position: Charlotte 2, Indiana St 0, even 3
CharlotteBetterIndiana St
G D. Finister TR14.9 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 84
Even
G K. Gregory TR16.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 70
G K. Tillery TR3.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 63
Even
G M. White TR10.6 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.9 ast Score 58
F D. Grant TR9.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 71
CLTBig
G M. Mitchell TR11.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 1 ast Score 28
F A. Conyers7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 37
CLTSmall
G D. Paschal TR3.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 16
F J. Fort TR3.3 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 49
No call
G C. Puryear TR0.4 pts · 0.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
CharlotteBetterIndiana St
CLT offense164th of 366 · -5.0
CLTSmall
INST defense267th of 366 · -6.8
CLT defense129th of 366 · -2.3
Even
INST offense162nd of 366 · -4.8
Backcourt+2.1 · 2 players
CLTBig
Backcourt-3.1 · 5 players
Frontcourt-0.1 · 3 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-0.8 · 3 players
Even
Bench-0.1 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestCLT betterINST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Charlotte
Guards
D. Finister33 min · TRK. Tillery12 min · TRJ. Rodriguez-Stegemeijer8 min · TRR. EvansNewF. OgucheNewL. BarnesNew
Forwards
D. Grant24 min · TRA. Conyers20 minJ. Fort14 min · TRT. McKinley12 min · TRM. AllenNew
Centers
P. Marshall11 min · TR
Indiana St
Guards
K. Gregory32 min · TRM. White31 min · TRM. Mitchell27 min · TRD. Paschal12 min · TRC. Puryear3 min · TRE. McQuillanNew
Forwards
A. Vlajic1 min · TRJ. CooperNewA. CalamitaNewK. LandNewK. SpeckmanNew
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CLTINST
Scoring
73.0 #225Points per game71.7 #254
1.12 #105Points per possession1.03 #295
65.5 #331Pace (possessions)69.7 #131
Shooting
53.4 #86Effective FG%52.8 #110
35.2 #1013-point %31.6 #305
45.4 #583-point attempt rate45.2 #62
36.4 #140Free throw rate27.4 #349
Possessions
18.1 #278Turnover rate19.5 #338
33.9 #71Offensive rebound rate26.2 #317
12.9 #217Assists per game17.1 #22
Defense
74.3 #164Points allowed75.1 #193
1.13 #291Points allowed per possession1.08 #161
50.9 #152Opponent effective FG%50.2 #110
33.5 #153Opponent 3-point %31.2 #37
13.6 #345Turnovers forced14.9 #299
67.5 #283Defensive rebound rate68.2 #245
4.5 #353Steals per game6.0 #242
3.5 #150Blocks per game3.3 #176

Charlotte

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs South Florida64–86
  • Wvs UAB83–78
  • Wvs Tulane74–60
  • L@ South Florida60–83
  • Lvs UAB74–80

A week or more of rest.

Indiana St

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-17 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Valparaiso62–63
  • Wvs UIC79–63
  • L@ S Illinois55–66
  • L@ Belmont70–87
  • Lvs Northern Iowa60–81

A week or more of rest.