1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 5
  3. GAST @ CLT
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 5

Georgia State Panthers at Charlotte 49ers

Halton Arena · at Charlotte
#208GASTGeorgia St
@
#141CLTCharlotte
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GASTThis seasonCLT
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CLT 77–69 · win probability CLT 75%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: CLT has more of the edges

GAST 1, CLT 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
GASTBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GAST 15.9%, CLT 18.1%. Forced: GAST 16.4%, CLT 13.6%
CLTBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: GAST 44.2 and allows 50.6; CLT 53.4 and allows 50.9
Context
Schedule so far
GAST has played the 232nd-hardest schedule, CLT the 113th. A record against a soft schedule means less
CLTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GAST 27.7%, CLT 33.9%. Defensive: GAST 66.4%, CLT 67.5%
CLTSmall
Three-pointers
GAST hits 30.6% and allows 33.1%; CLT hits 35.2% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 42.4% and 45.4% of their shots
CLTSmall
GAST offense vs CLT defense
Offense 214th of 366 against a defense 129th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: GAST plays 69.1 a game (176th fastest), CLT 65.5 (331st). Faster games mean more points
CLTSmall
Home court
CLT at home. This season: CLT 0-0 at home, GAST 0-0 away
Even
CLT offense vs GAST defense
Offense 164th of 366 against a defense 205th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: GAST 37.2, CLT 36.4. Allowed: GAST 34.9, CLT 36.2
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GAST 4%, CLT 10%. Transfers in: GAST 10, CLT 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—CLT -7.7—
Total—145.4—
Projected score—GAST 68.8 · CLT 76.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCLT -4.5—
1H total68.0—
1H projected scoreGAST 31.8 · CLT 36.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Charlotte has the better starters

Position by position: Georgia St 1, Charlotte 2, even 2
Georgia StBetterCharlotte
G J. Jackson TR12.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 51
CLTSmall
G D. Finister TR14.9 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 84
G J. Meyer TR12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 51
Even
G K. Tillery TR3.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 63
G E. Parnell TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40
CLTSmall
F D. Grant TR9.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 71
F T. Dixon TR9.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 75
GASTBig
F A. Conyers7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 37
F J. Sirtautas TR5.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37
Even
F J. Fort TR3.3 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 49
Georgia StBetterCharlotte
GAST offense214th of 366 · -6.5
CLTSmall
CLT defense129th of 366 · -2.3
GAST defense205th of 366 · -5.0
Even
CLT offense164th of 366 · -5.0
Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players
CLTBig
Backcourt+2.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt+0.3 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.1 · 3 players
Bench-3.7 · 5 players
CLTSmall
Bench-0.8 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestGAST betterCLT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Georgia St
Guards
J. Jackson33 min · TRJ. Meyer29 min · TRE. Parnell26 min · TRZ. Wilburn17 min · TRA. Smith15 min · TRD. Thomas14 min · TR
Forwards
T. Dixon22 min · TRJ. Sirtautas20 min · TRJ. Fredson-Cole19 min · TRO. WilsonNewK. JacksonNew
Centers
M. Nicholson4 min · TR
Charlotte
Guards
D. Finister33 min · TRK. Tillery12 min · TRJ. Rodriguez-Stegemeijer8 min · TRR. EvansNewF. OgucheNewL. BarnesNew
Forwards
D. Grant24 min · TRA. Conyers20 minJ. Fort14 min · TRT. McKinley12 min · TRM. AllenNew
Centers
P. Marshall11 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GASTCLT
Scoring
68.4 #307Points per game73.0 #225
0.99 #335Points per possession1.12 #105
69.1 #176Pace (possessions)65.5 #331
Shooting
44.2 #362Effective FG%53.4 #86
30.6 #3293-point %35.2 #101
42.4 #1293-point attempt rate45.4 #58
37.2 #124Free throw rate36.4 #140
Possessions
15.9 #132Turnover rate18.1 #278
27.7 #278Offensive rebound rate33.9 #71
11.1 #334Assists per game12.9 #217
Defense
75.4 #203Points allowed74.3 #164
1.09 #202Points allowed per possession1.13 #291
50.6 #135Opponent effective FG%50.9 #152
33.1 #132Opponent 3-point %33.5 #153
16.4 #197Turnovers forced13.6 #345
66.4 #312Defensive rebound rate67.5 #283
6.7 #149Steals per game4.5 #353
3.0 #212Blocks per game3.5 #150
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Georgia St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Louisiana75–84
  • Lvs Old Dominion73–81
  • Lvs Coastal71–76
  • Lvs James Madison65–80
  • Wvs GA Southern66–64

A week or more of rest.

Charlotte

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs South Florida64–86
  • Wvs UAB83–78
  • Wvs Tulane74–60
  • L@ South Florida60–83
  • Lvs UAB74–80

A week or more of rest.