Howard Bison at Alcorn State Braves: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 5, 7:00 PM ETDavey L. Whitney Complex · at Alcorn St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Howard and Alcorn St
HOW	This season	ALCN
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HOW 78–68 · win probability HOW 80%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HOW has more of the edges

HOW 8, ALCN 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

HOWBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: HOW 50.9 and allows 48.7; ALCN 47.7 and allows 55.0

HOWBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: HOW 35.8%, ALCN 26.9%. Defensive: HOW 68.6%, ALCN 64.5%

HOWBig

HOW offense vs ALCN defense

Offense 196th of 366 against a defense 354th, on the model’s ratings

HOWBig

ALCN offense vs HOW defense

Offense 350th of 366 against a defense 206th, on the model’s ratings

HOWBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: HOW 43.5, ALCN 31.8. Allowed: HOW 38.4, ALCN 39.4

HOWBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: HOW 76%, ALCN 11%. Transfers in: HOW 2, ALCN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

HOWBig

Three-pointers

HOW hits 35.8% and allows 31.4%; ALCN hits 33.3% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 34.7% and 33.7% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

HOW has played the 348th-hardest schedule, ALCN the 266th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ALCNSmall

Home court

ALCN at home. This season: ALCN 0-0 at home, HOW 0-0 away

HOWSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: HOW 19.3%, ALCN 19.6%. Forced: HOW 20.7%, ALCN 18.1%

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: HOW plays 69.5 a game (144th fastest), ALCN 69.7 (138th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	HOW -9.6	—
Total	—	146.3	—
Projected score	—	HOW 77.9 · ALCN 68.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HOW -5.8	—
1H total	68.4	—
1H projected score	HOW 37.1 · ALCN 31.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOW WWLWW	22-9	71%	8-5	—
ALCN LLLWL	18-14	56%	5-4	—

Venue/role: HOW away; ALCN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOW OUUOO	15-16	48%	20-11
ALCN UUUOU	15-17	47%	9-23

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOW	9-1 90%	9-1 90%	6-4 60%
ALCN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Howard

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	@ PENN	L68–78LU
Nov 12	vs STET	L60–64LU
Nov 14	@ DAV	No recent meeting

Alcorn St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 10	@ MUR	No recent meeting
Nov 13	@ TAR	No recent meeting
Nov 16	@ MD	L64–84WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

HOW 1–0 ALCNHOW leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · HOW 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 13, 2025-26	ALCN 64 @ HOW 72	HOW -6.5	HOW W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Howard

31 games played

Straight up

20-11

65% wins

Against the spread

22-9

71% covers · avg +5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-16

48% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1165%

L L W L W L L W W W W L L L W W L W W W L W W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

22-971%

L L W L W W L W W W W L L L W W L W W W W W W W W W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1648%

U U U U O U O U U O U U U U O O O O U O O U O O U O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMIZ	L 67-88	+20.5	L −0.5	158.5	U 155
Nov 9	vsGRAM	L 70-73	-4.5	L −7.5	152.5	U 143
Nov 13	vsALCN	W 72-64	-6.5	W +1.5	154.5	U 136
Nov 19	@STET	L 60-64	-1.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 124
Nov 22	vsNIA	W 80-70	-4.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 150
Nov 23	@DUKE	L 56-93	+43.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 149
Nov 29	@MSM	L 75-79	+2.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 154
Dec 9	vsNCAT	W 73-69	+2.5	W +6.5	149.5	U 142
Dec 13	vsHAMP	W 61-57	+2.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 118
Dec 16	@DREX	W 74-66	+6.5	W +14.5	138.5	O 140
Dec 20	@UNCW	W 67-66	+15.5	W +16.5	141.5	U 133
Dec 30	@NU	L 60-80	+19.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 140
Jan 3	@SCST	L 57-58	-8.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 115
Jan 10	@UMES	L 57-69	-2.5	L −14.5	130.5	U 126
Jan 12	vsDSU	W 84-58	-8.5	W +17.5	129.5	O 142
Jan 17	@NCCU	W 83-69	-2.5	W +11.5	141.5	O 152
Jan 24	vsMORG	L 77-78	-14.5	L −15.5	148.5	O 155
Jan 31	vsNORF	W 88-60	-7.5	W +20.5	146.5	O 148
Feb 2	@COPP	W 72-53	-14.5	W +4.5	146.5	U 125
Feb 7	vsSCST	W 85-57	-14.5	W +13.5	141.5	O 142
Feb 9	vsYALE	L 81-87	+6.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 168
Feb 14	vsUMES	W 79-53	-10.5	W +15.5	132.5	U 132
Feb 16	@DSU	W 91-59	-11.5	W +20.5	131.5	O 150
Feb 21	vsNCCU	W 100-67	-12.5	W +20.5	143.5	O 167
Feb 28	@MORG	W 84-59	-8.5	W +16.5	158.5	U 143
Mar 2	vsCOPP	W 90-70	-19.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 160
Mar 5	@NORF	W 84-76	-6.5	W +1.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 13	vsSCST	W 78-61	-15.5	W +1.5	145.5	U 139
Mar 14	vsNCCU	W 70-63	-11.5	L −4.5	142.5	U 133
Mar 17	vsUMBC	W 86-83	-1.5	W +1.5	143.5	O 169
Mar 19	vsMICH	L 80-101	+30.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 181

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIZ

L 67-88

−0.5

GRAM

L 70-73

−7.5

ALCN

W 72-64

+1.5

STET

L 60-64

−5.5

NIA

W 80-70

+5.5

DUKE

L 56-93

+6.5

MSM

L 75-79

−1.5

NCAT

W 73-69

+6.5

HAMP

W 61-57

+6.5

DREX

W 74-66

+14.5

UNCW

W 67-66

+16.5

L 60-80

−0.5

SCST

L 57-58

−9.5

UMES

L 57-69

−14.5

DSU

W 84-58

+17.5

NCCU

W 83-69

+11.5

MORG

L 77-78

−15.5

NORF

W 88-60

+20.5

COPP

W 72-53

+4.5

SCST

W 85-57

+13.5

YALE

L 81-87

+0.5

UMES

W 79-53

+15.5

DSU

W 91-59

+20.5

NCCU

W 100-67

+20.5

MORG

W 84-59

+16.5

COPP

W 90-70

+0.5

NORF

W 84-76

+1.5

SCST

W 78-61

+1.5

NCCU

W 70-63

−4.5

UMBC

W 86-83

+1.5

MICH

L 80-101

+9.5

covered 22didn’t cover 9avg +5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIZ

L 67-88

−3.5

GRAM

L 70-73

−9.5

ALCN

W 72-64

−18.5

STET

L 60-64

−25.5

NIA

W 80-70

+11.5

DUKE

L 56-93

−5.5

MSM

L 75-79

+7.5

NCAT

W 73-69

−7.5

HAMP

W 61-57

−24.5

DREX

W 74-66

+1.5

UNCW

W 67-66

−8.5

L 60-80

−8.5

SCST

L 57-58

−29.5

UMES

L 57-69

−4.5

DSU

W 84-58

+12.5

NCCU

W 83-69

+10.5

MORG

L 77-78

+6.5

NORF

W 88-60

+1.5

COPP

W 72-53

−21.5

SCST

W 85-57

+0.5

YALE

L 81-87

+20.5

UMES

W 79-53

−0.5

DSU

W 91-59

+18.5

NCCU

W 100-67

+23.5

MORG

W 84-59

−15.5

COPP

W 90-70

+19.5

NORF

W 84-76

+10.5

SCST

W 78-61

−6.5

NCCU

W 70-63

−9.5

UMBC

W 86-83

+25.5

MICH

L 80-101

+29.5

over 15under 16avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Alcorn St

32 games played

Straight up

9-23

28% wins

Against the spread

18-14

56% covers · avg −0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-17

47% overs · avg −0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2328%

L L L L L L L W L L L L L W L L W L L W L L W W L W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1456%

L W L W L W W W L L L L W W L W W W W W L W W W L W W L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1747%

O O U O U O U O O O O U O U U U U U O O U O U U O U O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@FSU	L 76-108	+27.5	L −4.5	156.5	O 184
Nov 6	@USA	L 70-76	+18.5	W +12.5	141.5	O 146
Nov 8	@MINN	L 50-95	+31.5	L −13.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 11	@MD	L 64-84	+29.5	W +9.5	146.5	O 148
Nov 13	@HOW	L 64-72	+6.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 136
Nov 18	@LSU	L 81-107	+32.5	W +6.5	155.5	O 188
Nov 23	@OU	L 53-72	+31.5	W +12.5	160.5	U 125
Nov 28	vsINST	W 81-74	+12.5	W +19.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 29	@LT	L 58-83	+16.5	L −8.5	137.5	O 141
Dec 3	@ISU	L 68-132	+42.5	L −21.5	151.5	O 200
Dec 19	@BAY	L 56-113	+35.5	L −21.5	160.5	O 169
Dec 29	@MISS	L 43-79	+28.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 122
Jan 3	@JKST	L 86-89	+5.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 175
Jan 10	@AAMU	W 64-62	+9.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 126
Jan 12	@ALST	L 66-81	+9.5	L −5.5	151.5	U 147
Jan 17	vsTXSO	L 71-72	+1.5	W +0.5	146.5	U 143
Jan 19	vsPV	W 76-75	+2.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 151
Jan 24	@FAMU	L 58-66	+8.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 124
Jan 26	@BCU	L 73-82	+13.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 155
Jan 31	vsSOU	W 78-73	+7.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 2	vsGRAM	L 50-74	+5.5	L −18.5	143.5	U 124
Feb 7	@UAPB	L 77-84	+7.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 161
Feb 9	@MVSU	W 74-66	-5.5	W +2.5	140.5	U 140
Feb 14	vsBCU	W 57-55	+8.5	W +10.5	144.5	U 112
Feb 16	vsFAMU	L 78-86	+2.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 164
Feb 21	vsJKST	W 83-65	+1.5	W +19.5	149.5	U 148
Feb 26	@TXSO	L 87-92	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 179
Feb 28	@PV	L 51-72	+4.5	L −16.5	150.5	U 123
Mar 3	vsMVSU	W 67-64	-9.5	L −6.5	139.5	U 131
Mar 5	vsUAPB	L 48-83	+1.5	L −33.5	145.5	U 131
Mar 9	vsALST	W 77-65	+7.5	W +19.5	141.5	O 142
Mar 10	vsPV	L 56-65	+6.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 121

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

−4.5

USA

L 70-76

+12.5

MINN

L 50-95

−13.5

L 64-84

+9.5

HOW

L 64-72

−1.5

LSU

L 81-107

+6.5

L 53-72

+12.5

INST

W 81-74

+19.5

L 58-83

−8.5

ISU

L 68-132

−21.5

BAY

L 56-113

−21.5

MISS

L 43-79

−7.5

JKST

L 86-89

+2.5

AAMU

W 64-62

+11.5

ALST

L 66-81

−5.5

TXSO

L 71-72

+0.5

W 76-75

+3.5

FAMU

L 58-66

+0.5

BCU

L 73-82

+4.5

SOU

W 78-73

+12.5

GRAM

L 50-74

−18.5

UAPB

L 77-84

+0.5

MVSU

W 74-66

+2.5

BCU

W 57-55

+10.5

FAMU

L 78-86

−5.5

JKST

W 83-65

+19.5

TXSO

L 87-92

+0.5

L 51-72

−16.5

MVSU

W 67-64

−6.5

UAPB

L 48-83

−33.5

ALST

W 77-65

+19.5

L 56-65

−2.5

covered 18didn’t cover 14avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FSU

L 76-108

+27.5

USA

L 70-76

+4.5

MINN

L 50-95

−7.5

L 64-84

+1.5

HOW

L 64-72

−18.5

LSU

L 81-107

+32.5

L 53-72

−35.5

INST

W 81-74

+2.5

L 58-83

+3.5

ISU

L 68-132

+48.5

BAY

L 56-113

+8.5

MISS

L 43-79

−26.5

JKST

L 86-89

+29.5

AAMU

W 64-62

−14.5

ALST

L 66-81

−4.5

TXSO

L 71-72

−3.5

W 76-75

−1.5

FAMU

L 58-66

−17.5

BCU

L 73-82

+7.5

SOU

W 78-73

+3.5

GRAM

L 50-74

−19.5

UAPB

L 77-84

+15.5

MVSU

W 74-66

−0.5

BCU

W 57-55

−32.5

FAMU

L 78-86

+26.5

JKST

W 83-65

−1.5

TXSO

L 87-92

+33.5

L 51-72

−27.5

MVSU

W 67-64

−8.5

UAPB

L 48-83

−14.5

ALST

W 77-65

+0.5

L 56-65

−21.5

over 15under 17avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Howard has the better starters

Position by position: Howard 1, Alcorn St 0, even 4

HowardBetterAlcorn St

G C. Gillus10.8 pts · 4.4 reb · 4.7 ast Score 52

No call

G T. Thomas9 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

G C. Taylor17.2 pts · 6.4 reb · 3 ast Score 89

No call

G J. Felton TR1.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

G A. Cotton8.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 15

No call

G B. Thomas TR3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

G O. Okojie10.3 pts · 4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 61

HOWBig

F M. Taylor TR3.3 pts · 2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 4

C G. Kocevar TR3.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 31

Even

C C. Richardson TR6.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 0 ast Score 45

HowardBetterAlcorn St

HOW offense196th of 366 · -6.1

HOWBig

ALCN defense354th of 366 · -9.9

HOW defense206th of 366 · -5.2

HOWBig

ALCN offense350th of 366 · -12.5

Backcourt-1.0 · 4 players

Even

Backcourt-1.9 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player

HOWSmall

Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players

Bench-3.1 · 5 players

ALCNSmall

Bench-0.6 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestHOW betterALCN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Howard

Guards

C. Gillus34 minC. Taylor32 minA. Cotton27 minO. Okojie26 minI. Brown10 minJ. Johnson6 min

Forwards

C. Robins6 minJ. Johnson3 minJ. LawsonNewD. HarrisNew

Centers

G. Kocevar13 min · TRJ. Brown6 min · TR

Alcorn St

Guards

T. Thomas22 minJ. Felton14 min · TRB. Thomas7 min · TRS. SunderlandNewJ. PowellNewJ. CraineNew

Forwards

M. Taylor14 min · TRJ. Walker5 min · TRB. CannonNewN. ThomasNew

Centers

C. Richardson15 min · TRA. TokpahNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

HOW75.5 #155

ALCN66.9 #335

Points per possession

HOW1.09 #162

ALCN0.96 #352

Pace (possessions)

HOW69.5 #144

ALCN69.7 #138

Shooting

Effective FG%

HOW50.9 #198

ALCN47.7 #320

3-point %

HOW35.8 #68

ALCN33.3 #209

3-point attempt rate

HOW34.7 #283

ALCN33.7 #303

Free throw rate

HOW43.5 #17

ALCN31.8 #259

Possessions

Turnover rate

HOW19.3 #331

ALCN19.6 #340

Offensive rebound rate

HOW35.8 #28

ALCN26.9 #297

Assists per game

HOW15.2 #78

ALCN11.1 #333

Defense

Points allowed

HOW69.3 #51

ALCN80.2 #322

Points allowed per possession

HOW1.00 #24

ALCN1.15 #324

Opponent effective FG%

HOW48.7 #53

ALCN55.0 #330

Opponent 3-point %

HOW31.4 #41

ALCN33.0 #120

Turnovers forced

HOW20.7 #13

ALCN18.1 #92

Defensive rebound rate

HOW68.6 #223

ALCN64.5 #347

Steals per game

HOW8.3 #29

ALCN7.7 #63

Blocks per game

HOW3.7 #113

ALCN3.4 #162

HOW		ALCN
Scoring
75.5 #155	Points per game	66.9 #335
1.09 #162	Points per possession	0.96 #352
69.5 #144	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #138
Shooting
50.9 #198	Effective FG%	47.7 #320
35.8 #68	3-point %	33.3 #209
34.7 #283	3-point attempt rate	33.7 #303
43.5 #17	Free throw rate	31.8 #259
Possessions
19.3 #331	Turnover rate	19.6 #340
35.8 #28	Offensive rebound rate	26.9 #297
15.2 #78	Assists per game	11.1 #333
Defense
69.3 #51	Points allowed	80.2 #322
1.00 #24	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #324
48.7 #53	Opponent effective FG%	55.0 #330
31.4 #41	Opponent 3-point %	33.0 #120
20.7 #13	Turnovers forced	18.1 #92
68.6 #223	Defensive rebound rate	64.5 #347
8.3 #29	Steals per game	7.7 #63
3.7 #113	Blocks per game	3.4 #162

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Howard

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-3 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Michigan80–101
Wvs UMBC86–83
Wvs NC Central70–63
Wvs SC State78–61
W@ Norfolk St84–76

A week or more of rest.

Alcorn St

9-23 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Prairie View56–65
Wvs Alabama St77–65
Lvs AR-Pine Bluff48–83
Wvs Miss Valley St67–64
L@ Prairie View51–72

A week or more of rest.

Howard Bison at Alcorn State Braves

What could decide it: HOW has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Howard

Alcorn St

Howard has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Howard

Alcorn St