1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 14
  3. HOW @ DAV
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 14

Howard Bison at Davidson Wildcats

John M. Belk Arena · at Davidson
#197HOWHoward
@
#115DAVDavidson
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
HOWThis seasonDAV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAV 77–67 · win probability DAV 82%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 143.5
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAV has more of the edges

HOW 3, DAV 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
HOW has played the 348th-hardest schedule, DAV the 91st. A record against a soft schedule means less
HOWBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: HOW 43.5, DAV 31.0. Allowed: HOW 38.4, DAV 37.1
DAVBig
HOW offense vs DAV defense
Offense 196th of 366 against a defense 84th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: HOW plays 69.5 a game (144th fastest), DAV 65.0 (347th). Faster games mean more points
HOWSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: HOW 35.8%, DAV 28.1%. Defensive: HOW 68.6%, DAV 70.0%
DAVSmall
DAV offense vs HOW defense
Offense 149th of 366 against a defense 206th, on the model’s ratings
DAVSmall
Home court
DAV at home. This season: DAV 0-0 at home, HOW 0-0 away
DAVSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: HOW 19.3%, DAV 15.8%. Forced: HOW 20.7%, DAV 17.5%
HOWSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: HOW 76%, DAV 49%. Transfers in: HOW 2, DAV 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
HOW hits 35.8% and allows 31.4%; DAV hits 35.4% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 34.7% and 44.5% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: HOW 50.9 and allows 48.7; DAV 52.6 and allows 50.6
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—DAV -10.4—
Total—143.5—
Projected score—HOW 66.6 · DAV 77

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadDAV -6.0—
1H total67.2—
1H projected scoreHOW 30.6 · DAV 36.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Davidson has the better starters

Position by position: Howard 1, Davidson 3, even 1
HowardBetterDavidson
G C. Gillus10.8 pts · 4.4 reb · 4.7 ast Score 52
DAVSmall
G N. Janowski TR16.7 pts · 5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 81
G C. Taylor17.2 pts · 6.4 reb · 3 ast Score 89
HOWBig
G S. Brown7.9 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 33
G A. Cotton8.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 15
DAVSmall
G N. Coval6.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 49
G O. Okojie10.3 pts · 4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 61
DAVSmall
F J. Scovens11.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88
C G. Kocevar TR3.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 31
Even
C I. Platteeuw3.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 43
HowardBetterDavidson
HOW offense196th of 366 · -6.1
DAVSmall
DAV defense84th of 366 · +0.0
HOW defense206th of 366 · -5.2
DAVSmall
DAV offense149th of 366 · -4.5
Backcourt-1.0 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
DAVSmall
Frontcourt+2.2 · 2 players
Bench-3.1 · 5 players
DAVSmall
Bench-0.9 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestHOW betterDAV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Howard
Guards
C. Gillus34 minC. Taylor32 minA. Cotton27 minO. Okojie26 minI. Brown10 minJ. Johnson6 min
Forwards
C. Robins6 minJ. Johnson3 minJ. LawsonNewD. HarrisNew
Centers
G. Kocevar13 min · TRJ. Brown6 min · TR
Davidson
Guards
N. Janowski32 min · TRS. Brown24 minN. Coval19 minP. Kavu1 minJ. CarterNewE. HeinonenNew
Forwards
J. Scovens25 minJ. Roberts12 minJ. Keith9 min · TRJ. Nowland1 minQ. BashiruNewT. StoiberNew
Centers
I. Platteeuw15 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
HOWDAV
Scoring
75.5 #155Points per game69.9 #289
1.09 #162Points per possession1.08 #189
69.5 #144Pace (possessions)65.0 #347
Shooting
50.9 #198Effective FG%52.6 #121
35.8 #683-point %35.4 #92
34.7 #2833-point attempt rate44.5 #79
43.5 #17Free throw rate31.0 #283
Possessions
19.3 #331Turnover rate15.8 #124
35.8 #28Offensive rebound rate28.1 #265
15.2 #78Assists per game13.4 #184
Defense
69.3 #51Points allowed68.5 #40
1.00 #24Points allowed per possession1.05 #94
48.7 #53Opponent effective FG%50.6 #132
31.4 #41Opponent 3-point %32.6 #92
20.7 #13Turnovers forced17.5 #121
68.6 #223Defensive rebound rate70.0 #157
8.3 #29Steals per game6.4 #189
3.7 #113Blocks per game4.1 #66
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Howard

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-3 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan80–101
  • Wvs UMBC86–83
  • Wvs NC Central70–63
  • Wvs SC State78–61
  • W@ Norfolk St84–76

A week or more of rest.

Davidson

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Oklahoma St80–84
  • Lvs Saint Joseph's58–70
  • Wvs Loyola Chicago64–59
  • W@ St Bonaventure68–63
  • Lvs Saint Joseph's67–70

A week or more of rest.