Charlotte 49ers at Davidson Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 17, 7:00 PM ETJohn M. Belk Arena · at Davidson

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Charlotte and Davidson
CLT	This season	DAV
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DAV 74–68 · win probability DAV 72%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 141.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DAV has more of the edges

CLT 1, DAV 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

DAVBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: CLT 18.1%, DAV 15.8%. Forced: CLT 13.6%, DAV 17.5%

CLTSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: CLT 36.4, DAV 31.0. Allowed: CLT 36.2, DAV 37.1

DAVSmall

CLT offense vs DAV defense

Offense 164th of 366 against a defense 84th, on the model’s ratings

DAVSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: CLT 10%, DAV 49%. Transfers in: CLT 7, DAV 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

DAVSmall

Home court

DAV at home. This season: DAV 0-0 at home, CLT 0-0 away

Even

Three-pointers

CLT hits 35.2% and allows 33.5%; DAV hits 35.4% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 45.4% and 44.5% of their shots

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: CLT 33.9%, DAV 28.1%. Defensive: CLT 67.5%, DAV 70.0%

Context

Schedule so far

CLT has played the 113th-hardest schedule, DAV the 91st. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

DAV offense vs CLT defense

Offense 149th of 366 against a defense 129th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: CLT plays 65.5 a game (331st fastest), DAV 65.0 (347th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: CLT 53.4 and allows 50.9; DAV 52.6 and allows 50.6

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	DAV -6.6	—
Total	—	141.9	—
Projected score	—	CLT 67.6 · DAV 74.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DAV -3.8	—
1H total	66.4	—
1H projected score	CLT 31.3 · DAV 35.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLT LLWWL	18-15	55%	6-6	—
DAV LWLLW	14-18	44%	5-11	—

Venue/role: CLT away; DAV home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLT OUUOU	19-14	58%	16-17
DAV OUUUO	14-18	44%	18-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLT	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
DAV	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Charlotte

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs FGCU	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs UNI	No recent meeting
Nov 29	vs WCU	W65–56WU

Davidson

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs UNI	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs TULN	No recent meeting
Nov 29	@ FAU	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CLT 1–4 DAVDAV leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · DAV has won the last 3 meetings · CLT 2-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 11, 2025-26	DAV 62 @ CLT 55	CLT -1.5	DAV W
Dec 10, 2024-25	CLT 71 @ DAV 75	DAV -7.5	CLT W
Nov 29, 2023-24	DAV 85 @ CLT 81	CLT -2.5	DAV W
Nov 29, 2022-23	CLT 68 @ DAV 66	DAV -4.5	CLT W
Nov 30, 2021-22	DAV 75 @ CLT 58	CLT +4	DAV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Charlotte

33 games played

Straight up

16-17

48% wins

Against the spread

18-15

55% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +3.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1748%

W W L L L L L W L L W W L W W W L W W W W L L L L W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1555%

W L L W L L W W L L W W L W W L L W W W W L L L W W W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1458%

O U U O U O U U U O O O O O U O O O U O O U U O O U O O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsINST	W 92-76	-4.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 7	vsTNTC	W 70-65	-12.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 135
Nov 11	vsDAV	L 55-62	-1.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 117
Nov 16	@VT	L 76-84	+18.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 21	@APP	L 63-65	+1.5	L −0.5	132.5	U 128
Nov 27	vsILST	L 69-79	+5.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsRICH	L 66-71	+6.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 137
Dec 2	vsNCAT	W 74-57	-7.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 131
Dec 7	vsUSU	L 53-79	+10.5	L −15.5	139.5	U 132
Dec 14	@COFC	L 67-74	+5.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 141
Dec 18	vsLAF	W 81-67	-11.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 21	vsUIC	W 88-76	-1.5	W +10.5	137.5	O 164
Dec 30	vsTEM	L 73-76	-1.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 149
Jan 3	vsWICH	W 104-100	+5.5	W +9.5	140.5	O 204
Jan 7	@UTSA	W 74-58	-6.5	W +9.5	145.5	U 132
Jan 11	@RICE	W 74-73	-1.5	L −0.5	137.5	O 147
Jan 14	vsTLSA	L 74-86	+3.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 18	@ECU	W 73-70	+1.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 23	vsTULN	W 73-70	-2.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 143
Jan 28	@TEM	W 80-76	+4.5	W +8.5	139.5	O 156
Jan 30	vsRICE	W 80-70	-4.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 150
Feb 4	@WICH	L 64-74	+9.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 8	@MEM	L 54-77	+10.5	L −12.5	144.5	U 131
Feb 15	vsUTSA	L 79-88	-13.5	L −22.5	148.5	O 167
Feb 18	@TLSA	L 74-79	+12.5	W +7.5	151.5	O 153
Feb 21	vsECU	W 68-56	-4.5	W +7.5	145.5	U 124
Feb 25	vsUNT	W 80-79	+2.5	W +3.5	133.5	O 159
Mar 1	@FAU	L 76-77	+6.5	W +5.5	147.5	O 153
Mar 4	vsUAB	L 74-80	+2.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 154
Mar 8	@USF	L 60-83	+17.5	L −5.5	156.5	U 143
Mar 12	vsTULN	W 74-60	-1.5	W +12.5	144.5	U 134
Mar 13	vsUAB	W 83-78	+5.5	W +10.5	147.5	O 161
Mar 14	vsUSF	L 64-86	+15.5	L −6.5	153.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

INST

W 92-76

+11.5

TNTC

W 70-65

−7.5

DAV

L 55-62

−8.5

L 76-84

+10.5

APP

L 63-65

−0.5

ILST

L 69-79

−4.5

RICH

L 66-71

+1.5

NCAT

W 74-57

+9.5

USU

L 53-79

−15.5

COFC

L 67-74

−1.5

LAF

W 81-67

+2.5

UIC

W 88-76

+10.5

TEM

L 73-76

−4.5

WICH

W 104-100

+9.5

UTSA

W 74-58

+9.5

RICE

W 74-73

−0.5

TLSA

L 74-86

−8.5

ECU

W 73-70

+4.5

TULN

W 73-70

+0.5

TEM

W 80-76

+8.5

RICE

W 80-70

+5.5

WICH

L 64-74

−0.5

MEM

L 54-77

−12.5

UTSA

L 79-88

−22.5

TLSA

L 74-79

+7.5

ECU

W 68-56

+7.5

UNT

W 80-79

+3.5

FAU

L 76-77

+5.5

UAB

L 74-80

−3.5

USF

L 60-83

−5.5

TULN

W 74-60

+12.5

UAB

W 83-78

+10.5

USF

L 64-86

−6.5

covered 18didn’t cover 15avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

INST

W 92-76

+15.5

TNTC

W 70-65

−11.5

DAV

L 55-62

−26.5

L 76-84

+14.5

APP

L 63-65

−4.5

ILST

L 69-79

+8.5

RICH

L 66-71

−4.5

NCAT

W 74-57

−13.5

USU

L 53-79

−7.5

COFC

L 67-74

+0.5

LAF

W 81-67

+10.5

UIC

W 88-76

+26.5

TEM

L 73-76

+10.5

WICH

W 104-100

+63.5

UTSA

W 74-58

−13.5

RICE

W 74-73

+9.5

TLSA

L 74-86

+13.5

ECU

W 73-70

+3.5

TULN

W 73-70

−0.5

TEM

W 80-76

+16.5

RICE

W 80-70

+8.5

WICH

L 64-74

−5.5

MEM

L 54-77

−13.5

UTSA

L 79-88

+18.5

TLSA

L 74-79

+1.5

ECU

W 68-56

−21.5

UNT

W 80-79

+25.5

FAU

L 76-77

+5.5

UAB

L 74-80

+7.5

USF

L 60-83

−13.5

TULN

W 74-60

−10.5

UAB

W 83-78

+13.5

USF

L 64-86

−3.5

over 19under 14avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Davidson

32 games played

Straight up

18-14

56% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-18

44% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

18-1456%

W W W W L W W L W L L L W W L W W L L W L W L W L W W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W L W L W L L W L L L W W L W W L L W L W L L L W L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1844%

O U O U O O O U U U O O U O U O U U U U O O U U U U O O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsWSU	W 85-69	-4.5	W +11.5	153.5	O 154
Nov 11	@CLT	W 62-55	+1.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 117
Nov 15	vsBGSU	W 91-87	-4.5	L −0.5	144.5	O 178
Nov 21	vsBC	W 59-49	+1.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 108
Nov 23	vsUSU	L 60-94	+9.5	L −24.5	147.5	O 154
Nov 28	vsNCAT	W 90-74	-13.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 164
Dec 4	vsCIT	W 79-63	-18.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 7	vsSMC	L 61-70	+8.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 131
Dec 13	vsMERC	W 80-47	-11.5	W +21.5	132.5	U 127
Dec 18	vsTEM	L 63-68	-5.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 131
Dec 22	@KU	L 61-90	+14.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 151
Dec 30	vsDUQ	L 83-89	-2.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 172
Jan 3	@JOES	W 62-56	-1.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 118
Jan 7	@LUC	W 79-64	-1.5	W +13.5	136.5	O 143
Jan 10	vsURI	L 45-70	-2.5	L −27.5	134.5	U 115
Jan 14	@GW	W 84-79	+9.5	W +14.5	150.5	O 163
Jan 21	vsFOR	W 68-63	-4.5	W +0.5	135.5	U 131
Jan 24	vsVCU	L 69-75	+5.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 144
Jan 28	@GMU	L 52-60	+6.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 112
Jan 31	@RICH	W 79-54	+1.5	W +26.5	140.5	U 133
Feb 3	vsSLU	L 82-91	+8.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 173
Feb 6	vsLUC	W 84-64	-9.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 148
Feb 15	@DAY	L 59-70	+5.5	L −5.5	140.5	U 129
Feb 18	vsRICH	W 65-63	-5.5	L −3.5	141.5	U 128
Feb 21	@FOR	L 59-63	-1.5	L −5.5	131.5	U 122
Feb 25	@DUQ	W 67-56	+3.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 123
Mar 1	vsLAS	W 71-64	-10.5	L −3.5	133.5	O 135
Mar 4	vsJOES	L 67-70	-1.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 137
Mar 7	@SBU	W 68-63	+4.5	W +9.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 12	vsLUC	W 64-59	-5.5	L −0.5	132.5	U 123
Mar 13	vsJOES	L 58-70	+2.5	L −9.5	133.5	U 128
Mar 17	@OKST	L 80-84	+6.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WSU

W 85-69

+11.5

CLT

W 62-55

+8.5

BGSU

W 91-87

−0.5

W 59-49

+11.5

USU

L 60-94

−24.5

NCAT

W 90-74

+2.5

CIT

W 79-63

−2.5

SMC

L 61-70

−0.5

MERC

W 80-47

+21.5

TEM

L 63-68

−10.5

L 61-90

−14.5

DUQ

L 83-89

−8.5

JOES

W 62-56

+4.5

LUC

W 79-64

+13.5

URI

L 45-70

−27.5

W 84-79

+14.5

FOR

W 68-63

+0.5

VCU

L 69-75

−0.5

GMU

L 52-60

−1.5

RICH

W 79-54

+26.5

SLU

L 82-91

−0.5

LUC

W 84-64

+10.5

DAY

L 59-70

−5.5

RICH

W 65-63

−3.5

FOR

L 59-63

−5.5

DUQ

W 67-56

+14.5

LAS

W 71-64

−3.5

JOES

L 67-70

−4.5

SBU

W 68-63

+9.5

LUC

W 64-59

−0.5

JOES

L 58-70

−9.5

OKST

L 80-84

+2.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WSU

W 85-69

+0.5

CLT

W 62-55

−26.5

BGSU

W 91-87

+33.5

W 59-49

−32.5

USU

L 60-94

+6.5

NCAT

W 90-74

+18.5

CIT

W 79-63

+4.5

SMC

L 61-70

−6.5

MERC

W 80-47

−5.5

TEM

L 63-68

−10.5

L 61-90

+11.5

DUQ

L 83-89

+21.5

JOES

W 62-56

−21.5

LUC

W 79-64

+6.5

URI

L 45-70

−19.5

W 84-79

+12.5

FOR

W 68-63

−4.5

VCU

L 69-75

−4.5

GMU

L 52-60

−22.5

RICH

W 79-54

−7.5

SLU

L 82-91

+21.5

LUC

W 84-64

+7.5

DAY

L 59-70

−11.5

RICH

W 65-63

−13.5

FOR

L 59-63

−9.5

DUQ

W 67-56

−19.5

LAS

W 71-64

+1.5

JOES

L 67-70

+0.5

SBU

W 68-63

−10.5

LUC

W 64-59

−9.5

JOES

L 58-70

−5.5

OKST

L 80-84

+9.5

over 14under 18avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Charlotte has the better starters

Position by position: Charlotte 2, Davidson 1, even 2

CharlotteBetterDavidson

G D. Finister TR14.9 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 84

Even

G N. Janowski TR16.7 pts · 5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 81

G K. Tillery TR3.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 63

CLTSmall

G S. Brown7.9 pts · 2 reb · 2.1 ast Score 33

F D. Grant TR9.5 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 71

CLTSmall

G N. Coval6.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 49

F A. Conyers7.5 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 37

DAVBig

F J. Scovens11.1 pts · 4.2 reb · 2 ast Score 88

F J. Fort TR3.3 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 49

Even

C I. Platteeuw3.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.9 ast Score 43

CharlotteBetterDavidson

CLT offense164th of 366 · -5.0

DAVSmall

DAV defense84th of 366 · +0.0

CLT defense129th of 366 · -2.3

Even

DAV offense149th of 366 · -4.5

Backcourt+2.1 · 2 players

CLTSmall

Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.1 · 3 players

DAVSmall

Frontcourt+2.2 · 2 players

Bench-0.8 · 3 players

Even

Bench-0.9 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestCLT betterDAV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Charlotte

Guards

D. Finister33 min · TRK. Tillery12 min · TRJ. Rodriguez-Stegemeijer8 min · TRR. EvansNewF. OgucheNewL. BarnesNew

Forwards

D. Grant24 min · TRA. Conyers20 minJ. Fort14 min · TRT. McKinley12 min · TRM. AllenNew

Centers

P. Marshall11 min · TR

Davidson

Guards

N. Janowski32 min · TRS. Brown24 minN. Coval19 minP. Kavu1 minJ. CarterNewE. HeinonenNew

Forwards

J. Scovens25 minJ. Roberts12 minJ. Keith9 min · TRJ. Nowland1 minQ. BashiruNewT. StoiberNew

Centers

I. Platteeuw15 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

CLT73.0 #225

DAV69.9 #289

Points per possession

CLT1.12 #105

DAV1.08 #189

Pace (possessions)

CLT65.5 #331

DAV65.0 #347

Shooting

Effective FG%

CLT53.4 #86

DAV52.6 #121

3-point %

CLT35.2 #101

DAV35.4 #92

3-point attempt rate

CLT45.4 #58

DAV44.5 #79

Free throw rate

CLT36.4 #140

DAV31.0 #283

Possessions

Turnover rate

CLT18.1 #278

DAV15.8 #124

Offensive rebound rate

CLT33.9 #71

DAV28.1 #265

Assists per game

CLT12.9 #217

DAV13.4 #184

Defense

Points allowed

CLT74.3 #164

DAV68.5 #40

Points allowed per possession

CLT1.13 #291

DAV1.05 #94

Opponent effective FG%

CLT50.9 #152

DAV50.6 #132

Opponent 3-point %

CLT33.5 #153

DAV32.6 #92

Turnovers forced

CLT13.6 #345

DAV17.5 #121

Defensive rebound rate

CLT67.5 #283

DAV70.0 #157

Steals per game

CLT4.5 #353

DAV6.4 #189

Blocks per game

CLT3.5 #150

DAV4.1 #66

CLT		DAV
Scoring
73.0 #225	Points per game	69.9 #289
1.12 #105	Points per possession	1.08 #189
65.5 #331	Pace (possessions)	65.0 #347
Shooting
53.4 #86	Effective FG%	52.6 #121
35.2 #101	3-point %	35.4 #92
45.4 #58	3-point attempt rate	44.5 #79
36.4 #140	Free throw rate	31.0 #283
Possessions
18.1 #278	Turnover rate	15.8 #124
33.9 #71	Offensive rebound rate	28.1 #265
12.9 #217	Assists per game	13.4 #184
Defense
74.3 #164	Points allowed	68.5 #40
1.13 #291	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #94
50.9 #152	Opponent effective FG%	50.6 #132
33.5 #153	Opponent 3-point %	32.6 #92
13.6 #345	Turnovers forced	17.5 #121
67.5 #283	Defensive rebound rate	70.0 #157
4.5 #353	Steals per game	6.4 #189
3.5 #150	Blocks per game	4.1 #66

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Charlotte

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs South Florida64–86
Wvs UAB83–78
Wvs Tulane74–60
L@ South Florida60–83
Lvs UAB74–80

A week or more of rest.

Davidson

18-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Oklahoma St80–84
Lvs Saint Joseph's58–70
Wvs Loyola Chicago64–59
W@ St Bonaventure68–63
Lvs Saint Joseph's67–70

A week or more of rest.

Charlotte 49ers at Davidson Wildcats

What could decide it: DAV has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Charlotte

Davidson

Charlotte has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Charlotte

Davidson