1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 17
  3. RID @ MIA
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 17

Rider Broncs at Miami Hurricanes

Watsco Center · at Miami
#347RIDRider
@
#25MIAMiami AP #14
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
RIDThis seasonMIA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MIA 92–55 · win probability MIA 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 147.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MIA has more of the edges

RID 0, MIA 9 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MIABig
RID offense vs MIA defense
Offense 348th of 366 against a defense 26th, on the model’s ratings
MIABig
MIA offense vs RID defense
Offense 30th of 366 against a defense 315th, on the model’s ratings
MIABig
Shooting
Effective FG%: RID 42.8 and allows 55.2; MIA 55.3 and allows 51.8
MIABig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: RID 32.6%, MIA 37.2%. Defensive: RID 67.2%, MIA 74.1%
MIABig
Three-pointers
RID hits 27.6% and allows 38.0%; MIA hits 34.9% and allows 35.8%. Threes are 27.5% and 31.9% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
RID has played the 201st-hardest schedule, MIA the 75th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MIABig
Free throws
Free throw rate: RID 30.1, MIA 37.1. Allowed: RID 32.5, MIA 29.5
MIABig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: RID 16.9%, MIA 16.1%. Forced: RID 15.3%, MIA 18.3%
MIASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: RID 0%, MIA 52%. Transfers in: RID 6, MIA 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: RID plays 65.7 a game (323rd fastest), MIA 69.2 (170th). Faster games mean more points
MIASmall
Home court
MIA at home. This season: MIA 0-0 at home, RID 0-0 away
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MIA -37.4—
Total—147.0—
Projected score—RID 54.8 · MIA 92.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMIA -22.1—
1H total68.7—
1H projected scoreRID 23.3 · MIA 45.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Miami has the better starters

Position by position: Rider 0, Miami 2, even 3
RiderBetterMiami
G M. Butler TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 4.3 ast Score 44
MIASmall
G B. Bland TR13.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 74
G K. Farmer TR3.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 6
MIABig
G A. Lewis TR12.2 pts · 3 reb · 5.3 ast Score 92
G B. Baker TR1.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
F D. Goode TR15.7 pts · 8.6 reb · 1.3 ast Score 94
G T. Bevins TR0.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F S. Henderson13.8 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 81
F H. Simmons TR1.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F M. Reneau18.9 pts · 6.5 reb · 2.1 ast Score 98
RiderBetterMiami
RID offense348th of 366 · -12.2
MIABig
MIA defense26th of 366 · +4.3
RID defense315th of 366 · -8.2
MIABig
MIA offense30th of 366 · +6.0
Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players
MIABig
Backcourt+4.0 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player
MIABig
Frontcourt+12.3 · 3 players
Bench-0.3 · 1 player
MIABig
Bench+3.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestRID betterMIA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Rider
Guards
M. Butler34 min · TRK. Farmer14 min · TRB. Baker13 min · TRT. Bevins5 min · TRN. WashingtonNewR. RosaNew
Forwards
H. Simmons6 min · TRR. Brisco2 min · TRK. WylieNewS. Ezekiel ObeNew
Centers
S. Avegah SemeyNew
Miami
Guards
B. Bland34 min · TRA. Lewis31 min · TRD. Allen24 minN. Dorn23 min · TRL. Cason19 min · TRQ. Berger17 min · TR
Forwards
D. Goode31 min · TRS. Henderson31 minM. Reneau29 minR. Miller19 min · TRM. Allen19 minC. GaskinsNew
Centers
S. Cyril21 min · TRE. RyzhovNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
RIDMIA
Scoring
62.6 #359Points per game81.5 #39
0.95 #355Points per possession1.18 #38
65.7 #323Pace (possessions)69.2 #170
Shooting
42.8 #365Effective FG%55.3 #32
27.6 #3653-point %34.9 #127
27.5 #3613-point attempt rate31.9 #331
30.1 #307Free throw rate37.1 #125
Possessions
16.9 #197Turnover rate16.1 #147
32.6 #101Offensive rebound rate37.2 #14
10.1 #356Assists per game16.2 #42
Defense
76.8 #236Points allowed71.2 #79
1.17 #341Points allowed per possession1.03 #60
55.2 #335Opponent effective FG%51.8 #198
38.0 #356Opponent 3-point %35.8 #296
15.3 #266Turnovers forced18.3 #87
67.2 #294Defensive rebound rate74.1 #19
5.9 #247Steals per game7.9 #48
3.2 #188Blocks per game3.3 #174
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rider

3-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-17 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Siena61–76
  • L@ Iona58–80
  • Wvs Niagara67–62
  • Lvs Canisius66–72
  • L@ Sacred Heart75–86

A week or more of rest.

Miami

26-9 in 2025-26 overall · 14-6 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue69–79
  • Wvs Missouri80–66
  • Lvs Virginia62–84
  • Wvs Louisville78–73
  • Lvs Louisville89–92

A week or more of rest.