Watsco Center · at Miami · Conference game
Closing line
MIA -11.5✓ CAL covered by 12.5
MIA -11.5✓ CAL covered by 12.5Closing total148.5Over by 22.5
 CAL | This season | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 14-6 | Record | 17-4 |
| 11-9 | ATS | 11-10 |
| 8-12 | O/U | 14-7 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CAL 71–79 MIA · ✗ MIA (77%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 45 | 41 | 86 |
| MIA | 44 | 41 | 85 |
1st half: CAL 45, MIA 44 (CAL by 1). The model had MIA by 5.0 and a total of 70.3 (actual 89).
Team stats
| CAL | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-53 49% | Field goals | 29-51 57% |
| 10-23 43% | 3-pointers | 4-12 33% |
| 24-32 75% | Free throws | 23-33 70% |
| 28 7 off | Rebounds | 32 7 off |
| 16 | Assists | 14 |
| 4 | Steals | 3 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 7 | Turnovers | 7 |
| 24 | Fouls | 20 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 48 |
| 0 | Fast-break points | 2 |
Players
| CAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Camden F | 34 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 7-10 | 4-5 |
| Justin Pippen G | 34 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 6-13 | 1-4 |
| Chris Bell F | 29 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 4-8 | 2-5 |
| Dai Dai Ames G | 28 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 4-13 | 1-5 |
| Milos Ilic C | 24 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Semetri Carr G | 18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| DeJuan Campbell G | 11 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Mantas Kocanas C | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut F | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Nolan Dorsey G | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
Did not play: Stephon Marbury II, Luke Butler, Jorell Clark, BJ Fisher, Jovani Ruff, Rytis Petraitis, Lee Dort, Sammie Yeanay
| MIA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Donaldson G | 39 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 5-11 | 2-4 |
| Dante Allen G | 35 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4-7 | 2-3 |
| Shelton Henderson F | 33 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 7-11 | 0-0 |
| Malik Reneau F | 30 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 6-8 | 0-1 |
| Ernest Udeh Jr. C | 24 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Timo Malovec F | 22 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2-6 | 0-3 |
| Noam Dovrat G | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Salih Altuntas C | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: JJ Laboy, Treyvon Maddox, Jordyn Kee, Tru Washington, Marcus Allen
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketMIA -11.5
ModelMIA -8.6
Model edgeCAL +2.9
W CAL covered
Total
Market148.5
Model150.1
Model edgeOver 1.6
W Over
Projected score
CAL 70.8 · MIA 79.3
CAL 86 · MIA 85
Win probability
MIA 77%
1st half
Spread
MIA -5.0
CAL -1.0
Total
70.3
89 points
Projected score
CAL 32.6 · MIA 37.6
CAL 45 · MIA 44
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIA -10.5
1 → MIA
CloseMIA -11.5
1 pt toward MIA
Total
Open148.5
no move
Close148.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
CAL +500 · MIA -700
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIA -10.5 · closed MIA -11.5 · moved 1 toward MIAmodel MIA -8.5
model MIA -8.5
Opened 148.5 · unchangedmodel 150
model 150
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAL | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% |
| MIA | 8-2 80% | 4-6 40% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
CAL 1–0 MIACAL leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · CAL 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2024-25 | MIA 94 @ CAL 98 | CAL -8.5 | MIA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
California
20 games played
Straight up
14-6
70% wins
Against the spread
11-9
55% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
8-12
40% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs CSUB | W 87-60 | -15.5 | W +11.5 | 147.5 | U 147 |
| Nov 6 | vs WRST | W 77-67 | -14.5 | L −4.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Nov 10 | vs CSUF | W 93-65 | -22.5 | W +5.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Nov 13 | @ KSU | L 96-99 | +6.5 | W +3.5 | 164.5 | O 195 |
| Nov 18 | vs PRES | W 67-57 | -10.5 | L −0.5 | 124.5 | U 124 |
| Nov 21 | vs SAC | W 91-67 | -21.5 | W +2.5 | 154.5 | O 158 |
| Nov 25 | vs UCLA | W 80-72 | +7.5 | W +15.5 | 143.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 2 | vs UTAH | W 79-72 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 152.5 | U 151 |
| Dec 6 | vs PAC | W 67-61 | -7.5 | L −1.5 | 144.5 | U 128 |
| Dec 13 | vs NWST | W 79-70 | -19.5 | L −10.5 | 145.5 | O 149 |
| Dec 19 | vs MORG | W 97-50 | -26.5 | W +20.5 | 151.5 | U 147 |
| Dec 21 | vs COLU | W 74-56 | -8.5 | W +9.5 | 153.5 | U 130 |
| Dec 30 | vs LOU | L 70-90 | +7.5 | L −12.5 | 159.5 | O 160 |
| Jan 2 | vs ND | W 72-71 | -3.5 | L −2.5 | 138.5 | O 143 |
| Jan 7 | @ UVA | L 60-84 | +14.5 | L −9.5 | 148.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 10 | @ VT | L 75-78 | +5.5 | W +2.5 | 148.5 | O 153 |
| Jan 14 | vs DUKE | L 56-71 | +14.5 | L −0.5 | 149.5 | U 127 |
| Jan 17 | vs UNC | W 84-78 | +7.5 | W +13.5 | 151.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 24 | @ STAN | W 78-66 | +4.5 | W +16.5 | 146.5 | U 144 |
| Jan 28 | @ FSU | L 61-63 | +3.5 | W +1.5 | 157.5 | U 124 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
+11.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
+5.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+3.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+2.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+15.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−0.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−1.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
−10.5
19
vsMORG
MORGW 97-50
+20.5
21
vsCOLU
COLUW 74-56
+9.5
30
vsLOU
LOUL 70-90
−12.5
2
vsND
NDW 72-71
−2.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 60-84
−9.5
10
@VT
VTL 75-78
+2.5
14
vsDUKE
DUKEL 56-71
−0.5
17
vsUNC
UNCW 84-78
+13.5
24
@STAN
STANW 78-66
+16.5
28
@FSU
FSUL 61-63
+1.5
covered 11didn’t cover 9avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsCSUB
CSUBW 87-60
−0.5
6
vsWRST
WRSTW 77-67
−4.5
10
vsCSUF
CSUFW 93-65
−4.5
13
@KSU
KSUL 96-99
+30.5
18
vsPRES
PRESW 67-57
−0.5
21
vsSAC
SACW 91-67
+3.5
25
vsUCLA
UCLAW 80-72
+8.5
2
vsUTAH
UTAHW 79-72
−1.5
6
vsPAC
PACW 67-61
−16.5
13
vsNWST
NWSTW 79-70
+3.5
19
vsMORG
MORGW 97-50
−4.5
21
vsCOLU
COLUW 74-56
−23.5
30
vsLOU
LOUL 70-90
+0.5
2
vsND
NDW 72-71
+4.5
7
@UVA
UVAL 60-84
−4.5
10
@VT
VTL 75-78
+4.5
14
vsDUKE
DUKEL 56-71
−22.5
17
vsUNC
UNCW 84-78
+10.5
24
@STAN
STANW 78-66
−2.5
28
@FSU
FSUL 61-63
−33.5
over 8under 12avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Miami
21 games played
Straight up
17-4
81% wins
Against the spread
11-10
52% covers · avg +2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
14-7
67% overs · avg −0.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs JAX | W 86-69 | -18.5 | L −1.5 | 142.5 | O 155 |
| Nov 6 | vs BCU | W 101-61 | -16.5 | W +23.5 | 154.5 | O 162 |
| Nov 10 | vs STET | W 102-61 | -34.5 | W +6.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Nov 16 | vs FLA | L 68-82 | +10.5 | L −3.5 | 171.5 | U 150 |
| Nov 20 | vs ELON | W 99-72 | -19.5 | W +7.5 | 164.5 | O 171 |
| Nov 23 | vs DSU | W 97-41 | -34.5 | W +21.5 | 151.5 | U 138 |
| Nov 27 | vs BYU | L 62-72 | +7.5 | L −2.5 | 165.5 | U 134 |
| Nov 28 | vs GTWN | W 78-65 | -5.5 | W +7.5 | 151.5 | U 143 |
| Dec 2 | @ MISS | W 75-66 | +1.5 | W +10.5 | 145.5 | U 141 |
| Dec 6 | vs USM | W 88-64 | -19.5 | W +4.5 | 145.5 | O 152 |
| Dec 13 | vs ULM | W 104-79 | -35.5 | L −10.5 | 153.5 | O 183 |
| Dec 16 | vs FIU | W 98-81 | -22.5 | L −5.5 | 161.5 | O 179 |
| Dec 21 | vs UNF | W 105-67 | -37.5 | W +0.5 | 171.5 | O 172 |
| Dec 30 | vs PITT | W 76-69 | -9.5 | L −2.5 | 144.5 | O 145 |
| Jan 7 | @ WAKE | W 81-77 | +1.5 | W +5.5 | 157.5 | O 158 |
| Jan 10 | vs GT | W 91-81 | -15.5 | L −5.5 | 156.5 | O 172 |
| Jan 13 | @ND | W 81-69 | -5.5 | W +6.5 | 143.5 | O 150 |
| Jan 17 | @ CLEM | L 59-69 | +4.5 | L −5.5 | 143.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 20 | vsFSU | L 63-65 | -10.5 | L −12.5 | 163.5 | U 128 |
| Jan 24 | @ SYR | W 85-76 | -1.5 | W +7.5 | 149.5 | O 161 |
| Jan 28 | vsSTAN | W 79-70 | -9.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | O 149 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
−1.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+23.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+6.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−3.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+7.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
+21.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−2.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
+7.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
+10.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+4.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
−10.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
−5.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
−2.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+5.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
−5.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−5.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−12.5
24
@SYR
SYRW 85-76
+7.5
28
vsSTAN
STANW 79-70
−0.5
covered 11didn’t cover 10avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsJAX
JAXW 86-69
+12.5
6
vsBCU
BCUW 101-61
+7.5
10
vsSTET
STETW 102-61
+1.5
16
vsFLA
FLAL 68-82
−21.5
20
vsELON
ELONW 99-72
+6.5
23
vsDSU
DSUW 97-41
−13.5
27
vsBYU
BYUL 62-72
−31.5
28
vsGTWN
GTWNW 78-65
−8.5
2
@MISS
MISSW 75-66
−4.5
6
vsUSM
USMW 88-64
+6.5
13
vsULM
ULMW 104-79
+29.5
16
vsFIU
FIUW 98-81
+17.5
21
vsUNF
UNFW 105-67
+0.5
30
vsPITT
PITTW 76-69
+0.5
7
@WAKE
WAKEW 81-77
+0.5
10
vsGT
GTW 91-81
+15.5
13
@ND
NDW 81-69
+6.5
17
@CLEM
CLEML 59-69
−15.5
20
vsFSU
FSUL 63-65
−35.5
24
@SYR
SYRW 85-76
+11.5
28
vsSTAN
STANW 79-70
+1.5
over 14under 7avg −0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
California
14-6 overall · 3-5 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Florida St61–63
- W@ Stanford78–66
- Wvs North Carolina84–78
- Lvs Duke56–71
- L@ Virginia Tech75–78
3 days since their last game.
Miami
17-4 overall · 6-2 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Stanford79–70
- W@ Syracuse85–76
- Lvs Florida St63–65
- L@ Clemson59–69
- W@ Notre Dame81–69
3 days since their last game.