1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 28
  3. RID @ ARMY
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 28

Rider Broncs at Army Black Knights

Christl Arena · at Army
#347RIDRider
@
#288ARMYArmy
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
RIDThis seasonARMY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARMY 77–69 · win probability ARMY 75%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARMY has more of the edges

RID 1, ARMY 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ARMYBig
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: RID 0%, ARMY 65%. Transfers in: RID 6, ARMY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
RIDBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: RID 30.1, ARMY 26.8. Allowed: RID 32.5, ARMY 39.6
Context
Schedule so far
RID has played the 201st-hardest schedule, ARMY the 302nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
ARMYSmall
Three-pointers
RID hits 27.6% and allows 38.0%; ARMY hits 32.0% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 27.5% and 53.3% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: RID plays 65.7 a game (323rd fastest), ARMY 68.6 (200th). Faster games mean more points
ARMYSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: RID 32.6%, ARMY 29.6%. Defensive: RID 67.2%, ARMY 72.3%
ARMYSmall
Home court
ARMY at home. This season: ARMY 0-0 at home, RID 0-0 away
ARMYSmall
RID offense vs ARMY defense
Offense 348th of 366 against a defense 304th, on the model’s ratings
ARMYSmall
ARMY offense vs RID defense
Offense 271st of 366 against a defense 315th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: RID 42.8 and allows 55.2; ARMY 49.3 and allows 55.1
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: RID 16.9%, ARMY 17.2%. Forced: RID 15.3%, ARMY 15.4%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARMY -7.7—
Total—145.8—
Projected score—RID 69.1 · ARMY 76.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARMY -4.4—
1H total68.2—
1H projected scoreRID 31.9 · ARMY 36.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Rider 0, Army 0, even 5
RiderBetterArmy
G M. Butler TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 4.3 ast Score 44
Even
G R. Curry13.4 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 57
G K. Farmer TR3.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 6
Even
G K. McCarthy7.2 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 13
G B. Baker TR1.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Holloway10.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 37
G T. Bevins TR0.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F T. Laczkowski5.3 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 38
F H. Simmons TR1.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F D. Benner1.4 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
RiderBetterArmy
RID offense348th of 366 · -12.2
Even
ARMY defense304th of 366 · -7.8
RID defense315th of 366 · -8.2
Even
ARMY offense271st of 366 · -8.2
Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players
ARMYSmall
Backcourt-3.1 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player
RIDSmall
Frontcourt-2.6 · 3 players
Bench-0.3 · 1 player
Even
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestRID betterARMY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Rider
Guards
M. Butler34 min · TRK. Farmer14 min · TRB. Baker13 min · TRT. Bevins5 min · TRN. WashingtonNewR. RosaNew
Forwards
H. Simmons6 min · TRR. Brisco2 min · TRK. WylieNewS. Ezekiel ObeNew
Centers
S. Avegah SemeyNew
Army
Guards
R. Curry34 minK. McCarthy24 minD. Watt5 minJ. Green3 minB. O'Keefe2 minJ. EllisNew
Forwards
J. Holloway29 minT. Laczkowski22 minD. Benner6 minN. Ikechi3 minD. Murans3 minH. RasmussenNew
Centers
P. HendersonNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
RIDARMY
Scoring
62.6 #359Points per game70.8 #268
0.95 #355Points per possession1.03 #281
65.7 #323Pace (possessions)68.6 #200
Shooting
42.8 #365Effective FG%49.3 #279
27.6 #3653-point %32.0 #278
27.5 #3613-point attempt rate53.3 #3
30.1 #307Free throw rate26.8 #352
Possessions
16.9 #197Turnover rate17.2 #221
32.6 #101Offensive rebound rate29.6 #219
10.1 #356Assists per game14.5 #118
Defense
76.8 #236Points allowed79.0 #298
1.17 #341Points allowed per possession1.15 #321
55.2 #335Opponent effective FG%55.1 #334
38.0 #356Opponent 3-point %35.5 #285
15.3 #266Turnovers forced15.4 #257
67.2 #294Defensive rebound rate72.3 #54
5.9 #247Steals per game5.4 #307
3.2 #188Blocks per game1.6 #359
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rider

3-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-17 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Siena61–76
  • L@ Iona58–80
  • Wvs Niagara67–62
  • Lvs Canisius66–72
  • L@ Sacred Heart75–86

A week or more of rest.

Army

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Bucknell55–65
  • L@ Lafayette77–83
  • Lvs Bucknell73–75
  • Lvs Navy63–81
  • W@ Loyola MD87–77

A week or more of rest.