Army Black Knights at UAlbany Great Danes: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 5, 7:00 PM ETBroadview Center · at UAlbany

#288ARMYArmy

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Army and UAlbany
ARMY	This season	UALB
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UALB 74–72 · win probability UALB 58%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

ARMY 2, UALB 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

UALBSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: ARMY 49.3 and allows 55.1; UALB 51.4 and allows 53.2

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: ARMY plays 68.6 a game (200th fastest), UALB 65.6 (324th). Faster games mean more points

ARMYSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: ARMY 29.6%, UALB 32.7%. Defensive: ARMY 72.3%, UALB 67.6%

UALBSmall

Home court

UALB at home. This season: UALB 0-0 at home, ARMY 0-0 away

ARMYSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: ARMY 65%, UALB 38%. Transfers in: ARMY 0, UALB 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: ARMY 26.8, UALB 24.9. Allowed: ARMY 39.6, UALB 35.7

Context

Schedule so far

ARMY has played the 302nd-hardest schedule, UALB the 260th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: ARMY 17.2%, UALB 18.5%. Forced: ARMY 15.4%, UALB 15.8%

Even

ARMY offense vs UALB defense

Offense 271st of 366 against a defense 259th, on the model’s ratings

Even

UALB offense vs ARMY defense

Offense 313th of 366 against a defense 304th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

ARMY hits 32.0% and allows 35.5%; UALB hits 32.6% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 53.3% and 37.6% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UALB -2.4	—
Total	—	146.2	—
Projected score	—	ARMY 71.9 · UALB 74.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UALB -1.3	—
1H total	68.4	—
1H projected score	ARMY 33.5 · UALB 34.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARMY WLLLL	12-18	40%	8-7	—
UALB WLWLL	11-18	38%	4-5	—

Venue/role: ARMY away; UALB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARMY OOOOU	17-13	57%	9-21
UALB UUOUO	14-15	48%	8-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARMY	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	5-5 50%
UALB	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Army

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 11	@ COLU	No recent meeting

UAlbany

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 8	@ COR	L75–83LU
Dec 12	vs SIE	L63–73WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ARMY 1–1 UALBSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · ARMY 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 4, 2024-25	UALB 59 @ ARMY 67	ARMY -1.5	ARMY W
Nov 21, 2023-24	ARMY 59 vs UALB 62	UALB -4.5	ARMY W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Army

30 games played

Straight up

9-21

30% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-2130%

L L L L L L W W L W W W L L L L L W L W W L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

W L L W W L W W W W L W W L L L L W L W L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1357%

O O U U O O O O U U O O U O O O U O U U U U U O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@STMN	L 76-83	+18.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsDUKE	L 59-114	+33.5	L −21.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsHARV	L 52-75	+6.5	L −16.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 18	@COR	L 73-86	+17.5	W +4.5	164.5	U 159
Nov 21	@MRST	L 65-76	+12.5	W +1.5	132.5	O 141
Nov 25	vsETAM	L 67-84	+2.5	L −14.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 26	@FDU	W 81-73	+4.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 154
Nov 29	vsMAN	W 81-78	+1.5	W +4.5	152.5	O 159
Dec 2	vsGW	L 70-84	+19.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 154
Dec 12	@UMBC	W 63-60	+7.5	W +10.5	146.5	U 123
Dec 23	vsBING	W 95-85	-12.5	L −2.5	140.5	O 180
Dec 31	@LEH	W 85-78	+5.5	W +12.5	146.5	O 163
Jan 3	vsCOLG	L 69-76	+7.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 7	vsL-MD	L 76-84	-4.5	L −12.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 10	@BU	L 91-100	+7.5	L −1.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 14	@HC	L 75-82	+4.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 157
Jan 18	vsAMER	L 67-78	+4.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 21	@BUCK	W 87-84	+4.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 171
Jan 24	@NAVY	L 56-84	+10.5	L −17.5	143.5	U 140
Jan 28	vsLEH	W 67-64	+1.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 131
Jan 31	vsHC	W 69-68	-2.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 137
Feb 4	@COLG	L 55-69	+10.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 124
Feb 7	vsLAF	L 60-63	+1.5	L −1.5	142.5	U 123
Feb 11	vsBU	L 68-85	+2.5	L −14.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 14	@AMER	L 63-75	+9.5	L −2.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 18	@L-MD	W 87-77	+4.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 164
Feb 21	vsNAVY	L 63-81	+8.5	L −9.5	139.5	O 144
Feb 25	vsBUCK	L 73-75	-2.5	L −4.5	142.5	O 148
Feb 28	@LAF	L 77-83	+3.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 160
Mar 3	@BUCK	L 55-65	+1.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 120

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STMN

L 76-83

+11.5

DUKE

L 59-114

−21.5

HARV

L 52-75

−16.5

COR

L 73-86

+4.5

MRST

L 65-76

+1.5

ETAM

L 67-84

−14.5

FDU

W 81-73

+12.5

MAN

W 81-78

+4.5

L 70-84

+5.5

UMBC

W 63-60

+10.5

BING

W 95-85

−2.5

LEH

W 85-78

+12.5

COLG

L 69-76

+0.5

L-MD

L 76-84

−12.5

L 91-100

−1.5

L 75-82

−2.5

AMER

L 67-78

−6.5

BUCK

W 87-84

+7.5

NAVY

L 56-84

−17.5

LEH

W 67-64

+4.5

W 69-68

−1.5

COLG

L 55-69

−3.5

LAF

L 60-63

−1.5

L 68-85

−14.5

AMER

L 63-75

−2.5

L-MD

W 87-77

+14.5

NAVY

L 63-81

−9.5

BUCK

L 73-75

−4.5

LAF

L 77-83

−2.5

BUCK

L 55-65

−8.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STMN

L 76-83

+7.5

DUKE

L 59-114

+20.5

HARV

L 52-75

−19.5

COR

L 73-86

−5.5

MRST

L 65-76

+8.5

ETAM

L 67-84

+7.5

FDU

W 81-73

+1.5

MAN

W 81-78

+6.5

L 70-84

−2.5

UMBC

W 63-60

−23.5

BING

W 95-85

+39.5

LEH

W 85-78

+16.5

COLG

L 69-76

−2.5

L-MD

L 76-84

+13.5

L 91-100

+50.5

L 75-82

+14.5

AMER

L 67-78

−2.5

BUCK

W 87-84

+26.5

NAVY

L 56-84

−3.5

LEH

W 67-64

−16.5

W 69-68

−7.5

COLG

L 55-69

−26.5

LAF

L 60-63

−19.5

L 68-85

+12.5

AMER

L 63-75

−6.5

L-MD

W 87-77

+14.5

NAVY

L 63-81

+4.5

BUCK

L 73-75

+5.5

LAF

L 77-83

+15.5

BUCK

L 55-65

−24.5

over 17under 13avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

UAlbany

29 games played

Straight up

8-21

28% wins

Against the spread

11-18

38% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2128%

L L L L L L L L L W L L L W W W L L L L W L W W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

11-1838%

L L L W W L L W L W L L L W W W L L L L W L L W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

U U U U U O O O O U U O O U U O U O O U U O O O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MARQ	L 53-80	+24.5	L −2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 8	@MASS	L 62-83	+9.5	L −11.5	155.5	U 145
Nov 14	@URI	L 61-80	+15.5	L −3.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 21	@SIE	L 63-73	+10.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 136
Nov 28	vsCOLG	L 67-69	+7.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 136
Nov 29	vsFOR	L 68-88	+10.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 156
Dec 6	@COLU	L 65-93	+13.5	L −14.5	144.5	O 158
Dec 10	vsYALE	L 82-93	+17.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 175
Dec 13	@FAU	L 79-105	+18.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 184
Dec 17	@STBK	W 71-55	+10.5	W +26.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 21	vsCOR	L 75-83	+6.5	L −1.5	167.5	U 158
Dec 30	@SC	L 67-96	+19.5	L −9.5	148.5	O 163
Jan 3	@UML	L 71-83	+2.5	L −9.5	150.5	O 154
Jan 10	vsBRY	W 71-46	-3.5	W +21.5	136.5	U 117
Jan 15	vsBING	W 69-53	-8.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 122
Jan 19	vsUVM	W 75-68	+5.5	W +12.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 22	@ME	L 49-52	-2.5	L −5.5	131.5	U 101
Jan 24	@UNH	L 72-80	+2.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 152
Jan 29	vsNJIT	L 68-77	-5.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 145
Jan 31	vsUMBC	L 65-68	+1.5	L −1.5	141.5	U 133
Feb 5	@BRY	W 65-63	+1.5	W +3.5	133.5	U 128
Feb 7	vsUML	L 79-89	-4.5	L −14.5	143.5	O 168
Feb 14	@BING	W 77-74	-4.5	L −1.5	136.5	O 151
Feb 19	@NJIT	W 81-63	+3.5	W +21.5	142.5	O 144
Feb 21	@UMBC	L 62-66	+7.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 128
Feb 26	vsME	L 59-70	-4.5	L −15.5	130.5	U 129
Feb 28	vsUNH	W 84-61	-3.5	W +19.5	138.5	O 145
Mar 3	@UVM	L 56-69	+9.5	L −3.5	136.5	U 125
Mar 7	@UML	L 76-81	+2.5	L −2.5	146.5	O 157

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MARQ

L 53-80

−2.5

MASS

L 62-83

−11.5

URI

L 61-80

−3.5

SIE

L 63-73

+0.5

COLG

L 67-69

+5.5

FOR

L 68-88

−9.5

COLU

L 65-93

−14.5

YALE

L 82-93

+6.5

FAU

L 79-105

−7.5

STBK

W 71-55

+26.5

COR

L 75-83

−1.5

L 67-96

−9.5

UML

L 71-83

−9.5

BRY

W 71-46

+21.5

BING

W 69-53

+7.5

UVM

W 75-68

+12.5

L 49-52

−5.5

UNH

L 72-80

−5.5

NJIT

L 68-77

−14.5

UMBC

L 65-68

−1.5

BRY

W 65-63

+3.5

UML

L 79-89

−14.5

BING

W 77-74

−1.5

NJIT

W 81-63

+21.5

UMBC

L 62-66

+3.5

L 59-70

−15.5

UNH

W 84-61

+19.5

UVM

L 56-69

−3.5

UML

L 76-81

−2.5

covered 11didn’t cover 18avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MARQ

L 53-80

−16.5

MASS

L 62-83

−10.5

URI

L 61-80

−9.5

SIE

L 63-73

−4.5

COLG

L 67-69

−5.5

FOR

L 68-88

+12.5

COLU

L 65-93

+13.5

YALE

L 82-93

+29.5

FAU

L 79-105

+36.5

STBK

W 71-55

−20.5

COR

L 75-83

−9.5

L 67-96

+14.5

UML

L 71-83

+3.5

BRY

W 71-46

−19.5

BING

W 69-53

−16.5

UVM

W 75-68

+3.5

L 49-52

−30.5

UNH

L 72-80

+14.5

NJIT

L 68-77

+5.5

UMBC

L 65-68

−8.5

BRY

W 65-63

−5.5

UML

L 79-89

+24.5

BING

W 77-74

+14.5

NJIT

W 81-63

+1.5

UMBC

L 62-66

−16.5

L 59-70

−1.5

UNH

W 84-61

+6.5

UVM

L 56-69

−11.5

UML

L 76-81

+10.5

over 14under 15avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Army has the better starters

Position by position: Army 2, UAlbany 1, even 2

ArmyBetterUAlbany

G R. Curry13.4 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.4 ast Score 57

ARMYSmall

G A. Fall9.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 27

G K. McCarthy7.2 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 13

UALBBig

G Z. Matulu9.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 48

F J. Holloway10.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.1 ast Score 37

Even

G P. Santos TR6.9 pts · 3.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51

F T. Laczkowski5.3 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.9 ast Score 38

ARMYBig

G M. Rose2.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 1

F D. Benner1.4 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

F B. Michaels TR1.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 3

ArmyBetterUAlbany

ARMY offense271st of 366 · -8.2

Even

UALB defense259th of 366 · -6.7

ARMY defense304th of 366 · -7.8

Even

UALB offense313th of 366 · -10.0

Backcourt-3.1 · 2 players

ARMYSmall

Backcourt-6.0 · 4 players

Frontcourt-2.6 · 3 players

Even

Frontcourt-1.8 · 1 player

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-0.2 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestARMY betterUALB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Army

Guards

R. Curry34 minK. McCarthy24 minD. Watt5 minJ. Green3 minB. O'Keefe2 minJ. EllisNew

Forwards

J. Holloway29 minT. Laczkowski22 minD. Benner6 minN. Ikechi3 minD. Murans3 minH. RasmussenNew

Centers

P. HendersonNew

UAlbany

Guards

A. Fall31 minZ. Matulu30 minP. Santos19 min · TRM. Rose15 minP. KountaNewO. EngenNew

Forwards

B. Michaels13 min · TRE. BussingNewP. MiovicNewU. GrahamNew

Centers

K. Webb3 min · TRC. SmithNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

ARMY70.8 #268

UALB68.7 #302

Points per possession

ARMY1.03 #281

UALB1.05 #259

Pace (possessions)

ARMY68.6 #200

UALB65.6 #324

Shooting

Effective FG%

ARMY49.3 #279

UALB51.4 #182

3-point %

ARMY32.0 #278

UALB32.6 #248

3-point attempt rate

ARMY53.3 #3

UALB37.6 #220

Free throw rate

ARMY26.8 #352

UALB24.9 #364

Possessions

Turnover rate

ARMY17.2 #221

UALB18.5 #299

Offensive rebound rate

ARMY29.6 #219

UALB32.7 #99

Assists per game

ARMY14.5 #118

UALB12.8 #232

Defense

Points allowed

ARMY79.0 #298

UALB74.5 #176

Points allowed per possession

ARMY1.15 #321

UALB1.14 #302

Opponent effective FG%

ARMY55.1 #334

UALB53.2 #275

Opponent 3-point %

ARMY35.5 #285

UALB36.0 #302

Turnovers forced

ARMY15.4 #257

UALB15.8 #228

Defensive rebound rate

ARMY72.3 #54

UALB67.6 #277

Steals per game

ARMY5.4 #307

UALB6.7 #153

Blocks per game

ARMY1.6 #359

UALB3.9 #82

ARMY		UALB
Scoring
70.8 #268	Points per game	68.7 #302
1.03 #281	Points per possession	1.05 #259
68.6 #200	Pace (possessions)	65.6 #324
Shooting
49.3 #279	Effective FG%	51.4 #182
32.0 #278	3-point %	32.6 #248
53.3 #3	3-point attempt rate	37.6 #220
26.8 #352	Free throw rate	24.9 #364
Possessions
17.2 #221	Turnover rate	18.5 #299
29.6 #219	Offensive rebound rate	32.7 #99
14.5 #118	Assists per game	12.8 #232
Defense
79.0 #298	Points allowed	74.5 #176
1.15 #321	Points allowed per possession	1.14 #302
55.1 #334	Opponent effective FG%	53.2 #275
35.5 #285	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #302
15.4 #257	Turnovers forced	15.8 #228
72.3 #54	Defensive rebound rate	67.6 #277
5.4 #307	Steals per game	6.7 #153
1.6 #359	Blocks per game	3.9 #82

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Army

9-21 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Bucknell55–65
L@ Lafayette77–83
Lvs Bucknell73–75
Lvs Navy63–81
W@ Loyola MD87–77

A week or more of rest.

UAlbany

8-21 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ UMass Lowell76–81
L@ Vermont56–69
Wvs New Hampshire84–61
Lvs Maine59–70
L@ UMBC62–66

A week or more of rest.

Army Black Knights at UAlbany Great Danes

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Army

UAlbany

Army has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Army

UAlbany