1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 5
  3. UML @ BC
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 5

UMass Lowell River Hawks at Boston College Eagles

Conte Forum · at Boston College
#307UMLUMass Lowell
@
#95BCBoston College
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UMLThis seasonBC
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BC 85–63 · win probability BC 97%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 147.6
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BC has more of the edges

UML 2, BC 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
UML has played the 312th-hardest schedule, BC the 79th. A record against a soft schedule means less
BCBig
BC offense vs UML defense
Offense 96th of 366 against a defense 318th, on the model’s ratings
BCBig
UML offense vs BC defense
Offense 286th of 366 against a defense 83rd, on the model’s ratings
UMLSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UML 34.9, BC 32.4. Allowed: UML 28.3, BC 34.6
BCSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UML 18.0%, BC 15.4%. Forced: UML 14.2%, BC 14.8%
BCSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UML 49.8 and allows 53.5; BC 47.0 and allows 48.9
UMLSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UML 32.7%, BC 28.3%. Defensive: UML 70.7%, BC 71.4%
BCSmall
Home court
BC at home. This season: BC 0-0 at home, UML 0-0 away
BCSmall
Three-pointers
UML hits 32.2% and allows 34.6%; BC hits 29.4% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 31.3% and 42.4% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: UML plays 68.9 a game (189th fastest), BC 67.5 (257th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UML 16%, BC 1%. Transfers in: UML 3, BC 11. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BC -22.0—
Total—147.6—
Projected score—UML 62.8 · BC 84.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBC -12.9—
1H total69.0—
1H projected scoreUML 28 · BC 41—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Boston College has the better starters

Position by position: UMass Lowell 0, Boston College 3, even 2
UMass LowellBetterBoston College
G C. Jones TR4.3 pts · 0.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 6
BCBig
G E. Shelton TR15.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 65
G J. Newton TR7.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 55
Even
G A. Zeigler TR12.3 pts · 4.9 reb · 3.3 ast Score 60
G I. Walter1.6 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Williams TR21.6 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 96
F V. Okojie4.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 11
BCBig
F B. Benjamin TR14.2 pts · 10.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 89
F J. Harris TR5.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 59
BCSmall
F A. Bukumirovic TR13.7 pts · 7.7 reb · 1 ast Score 86
UMass LowellBetterBoston College
UML offense286th of 366 · -8.9
BCBig
BC defense83rd of 366 · +0.1
UML defense318th of 366 · -8.2
BCBig
BC offense96th of 366 · -0.7
Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players
BCBig
Backcourt+4.7 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.7 · 2 players
BCBig
Frontcourt+5.8 · 2 players
Bench-0.7 · 1 player
UMLBig
Bench-4.5 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUML betterBC betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UMass Lowell
Guards
C. Jones18 min · TRJ. Newton17 min · TRI. Walter8 minK. GilesNewJ. CannadyNewM. EllisNew
Forwards
V. Okojie18 minJ. Harris11 min · TRJ. Roberson7 minD. HandNewE. DialloNew
Boston College
Guards
E. Shelton37 min · TRA. Zeigler33 min · TRM. Williams32 min · TRJ. Frankel21 min · TRJ. O'Toole3 min · TRJ. Furphy3 min · TR
Forwards
B. Benjamin31 min · TRA. Bukumirovic30 min · TRC. Duggan28 min · TRL. Hunger19 min · TRA. Tounkara18 min · TRJ. BaileyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UMLBC
Scoring
71.7 #253Points per game67.4 #326
1.04 #272Points per possession1.00 #323
68.9 #189Pace (possessions)67.5 #257
Shooting
49.8 #247Effective FG%47.0 #338
32.2 #2693-point %29.4 #348
31.3 #3363-point attempt rate42.4 #130
34.9 #183Free throw rate32.4 #251
Possessions
18.0 #269Turnover rate15.4 #102
32.7 #98Offensive rebound rate28.3 #254
11.9 #294Assists per game11.3 #323
Defense
77.4 #249Points allowed70.7 #70
1.13 #277Points allowed per possession1.04 #81
53.5 #284Opponent effective FG%48.9 #62
34.6 #226Opponent 3-point %31.9 #59
14.2 #329Turnovers forced14.8 #303
70.7 #126Defensive rebound rate71.4 #87
5.1 #326Steals per game4.8 #341
3.0 #222Blocks per game4.1 #62
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UMass Lowell

12-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-8 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ UMBC69–91
  • Wvs UAlbany81–76
  • W@ Maine67–56
  • Lvs UMBC60–84
  • L@ Vermont64–66

A week or more of rest.

Boston College

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Wvs Notre Dame77–69
  • L@ Virginia Tech63–72
  • L@ Miami54–76
  • Wvs Wake Forest68–67
  • L@ SMU70–94

A week or more of rest.