1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Dec 9
  3. UML @ SHU
NCAAB · Wed, Dec 9

UMass Lowell River Hawks at Sacred Heart Pioneers

William H. Pitt Center · at Sacred Heart
#307UMLUMass Lowell
@
#311SHUSacred Heart
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UMLThis seasonSHU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SHU 77–74 · win probability SHU 64%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.9
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

UML 3, SHU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UMLBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UML 32.7%, SHU 28.6%. Defensive: UML 70.7%, SHU 69.1%
SHUSmall
Three-pointers
UML hits 32.2% and allows 34.6%; SHU hits 35.7% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 31.3% and 50.7% of their shots
SHUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UML 49.8 and allows 53.5; SHU 52.0 and allows 53.5
SHUSmall
Home court
SHU at home. This season: SHU 0-0 at home, UML 0-0 away
UMLSmall
UML offense vs SHU defense
Offense 286th of 366 against a defense 334th, on the model’s ratings
UMLSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UML 34.9, SHU 31.0. Allowed: UML 28.3, SHU 27.0
Even
SHU offense vs UML defense
Offense 281st of 366 against a defense 318th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
UML has played the 312th-hardest schedule, SHU the 340th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UML 18.0%, SHU 17.6%. Forced: UML 14.2%, SHU 14.6%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UML plays 68.9 a game (189th fastest), SHU 68.6 (201st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UML 16%, SHU 18%. Transfers in: UML 3, SHU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SHU -4.0—
Total—150.9—
Projected score—UML 73.5 · SHU 77.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSHU -2.2—
1H total70.5—
1H projected scoreUML 34.2 · SHU 36.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UMass Lowell has the better starters

Position by position: UMass Lowell 2, Sacred Heart 1, even 2
UMass LowellBetterSacred Heart
G C. Jones TR4.3 pts · 0.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 6
SHUBig
G J. Van Buggenhout TR6.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 3.1 ast Score 42
G J. Newton TR7.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 55
UMLBig
G J. Slaughter5.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 20
G I. Walter1.6 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
G S. Reilly TR3.6 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.3 ast Score 47
F V. Okojie4.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 11
Even
F A. Yadd6 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 5
F J. Harris TR5.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 59
UMLSmall
F J. Robinson TR2.5 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 26
UMass LowellBetterSacred Heart
UML offense286th of 366 · -8.9
Even
SHU defense334th of 366 · -8.8
UML defense318th of 366 · -8.2
Even
SHU offense281st of 366 · -8.7
Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-3.0 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.7 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-2.6 · 2 players
Bench-0.7 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.0 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestUML betterSHU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UMass Lowell
Guards
C. Jones18 min · TRJ. Newton17 min · TRI. Walter8 minK. GilesNewJ. CannadyNewM. EllisNew
Forwards
V. Okojie18 minJ. Harris11 min · TRJ. Roberson7 minD. HandNewE. DialloNew
Sacred Heart
Guards
J. Van Buggenhout21 min · TRJ. Slaughter21 minS. Reilly9 min · TRM. Sheppard1 minG. BarroukNewJ. WallaceNew
Forwards
A. Yadd15 minJ. Robinson10 min · TRK. CurtisNewL. KrygierNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UMLSHU
Scoring
71.7 #253Points per game74.3 #186
1.04 #272Points per possession1.08 #180
68.9 #189Pace (possessions)68.6 #201
Shooting
49.8 #247Effective FG%52.0 #145
32.2 #2693-point %35.7 #73
31.3 #3363-point attempt rate50.7 #12
34.9 #183Free throw rate31.0 #281
Possessions
18.0 #269Turnover rate17.6 #249
32.7 #98Offensive rebound rate28.6 #246
11.9 #294Assists per game14.6 #112
Defense
77.4 #249Points allowed77.6 #253
1.13 #277Points allowed per possession1.13 #296
53.5 #284Opponent effective FG%53.5 #283
34.6 #226Opponent 3-point %34.9 #241
14.2 #329Turnovers forced14.6 #320
70.7 #126Defensive rebound rate69.1 #199
5.1 #326Steals per game5.4 #305
3.0 #222Blocks per game3.0 #223
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UMass Lowell

12-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-8 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ UMBC69–91
  • Wvs UAlbany81–76
  • W@ Maine67–56
  • Lvs UMBC60–84
  • L@ Vermont64–66

A week or more of rest.

Sacred Heart

13-19 in 2025-26 overall · 10-12 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Merrimack48–70
  • Wvs Iona91–80
  • Wvs Mount St Marys77–69
  • L@ Marist63–65
  • L@ Fairfield68–78

A week or more of rest.