1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. STO @ UML
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Stonehill Skyhawks at UMass Lowell River Hawks

Kennedy Family Athletic Complex · at UMass Lowell
#349STOStonehill
@
#307UMLUMass Lowell
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
STOThis seasonUML
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UML 72–68 · win probability UML 66%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 139.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UML has more of the edges

STO 2, UML 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UMLSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: STO 27.3, UML 34.9. Allowed: STO 30.3, UML 28.3
STOSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: STO 46.9 and allows 47.8; UML 49.8 and allows 53.5
STOSmall
UML offense vs STO defense
Offense 286th of 366 against a defense 225th, on the model’s ratings
UMLSmall
Home court
UML at home. This season: UML 0-0 at home, STO 0-0 away
UMLSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: STO 27.5%, UML 32.7%. Defensive: STO 72.9%, UML 70.7%
UMLSmall
STO offense vs UML defense
Offense 363rd of 366 against a defense 318th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: STO 19.4%, UML 18.0%. Forced: STO 13.4%, UML 14.2%
Context
Schedule so far
STO has played the 352nd-hardest schedule, UML the 312th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: STO plays 67.6 a game (244th fastest), UML 68.9 (189th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
STO hits 31.7% and allows 33.4%; UML hits 32.2% and allows 34.6%. Threes are 40.5% and 31.3% of their shots
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: STO 28%, UML 16%. Transfers in: STO 6, UML 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UML -4.7—
Total—139.8—
Projected score—STO 67.6 · UML 72.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUML -2.7—
1H total65.5—
1H projected scoreSTO 31.4 · UML 34.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

UMass Lowell has the better starters

Position by position: Stonehill 0, UMass Lowell 2, even 3
StonehillBetterUMass Lowell
G W. Batchelder8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.5 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Jones TR4.3 pts · 0.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 6
G A. Boldin TR5.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 1 ast Score 29
UMLSmall
G J. Newton TR7.1 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.6 ast Score 55
G D. Arlington TR2.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 5
No call
G I. Walter1.6 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
G E. Greenberg TR2.3 pts · 1.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 0
Even
F V. Okojie4.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 0.7 ast Score 11
G A. Allen TR3.6 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.3 ast Score 15
UMLBig
F J. Harris TR5.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 59
StonehillBetterUMass Lowell
STO offense363rd of 366 · -14.8
Even
UML defense318th of 366 · -8.2
STO defense225th of 366 · -5.9
STOSmall
UML offense286th of 366 · -8.9
Backcourt-10.2 · 5 players
UMLBig
Backcourt-3.4 · 3 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt-1.7 · 2 players
Bench-3.6 · 5 players
UMLSmall
Bench-0.7 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestSTO betterUML betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Stonehill
Guards
W. Batchelder32 minA. Boldin18 min · TRD. Arlington14 min · TRE. Greenberg14 min · TRA. Allen14 min · TRT. Ruth11 min
Forwards
P. McGuinn9 minE. Steele4 min · TRJ. MedalieNewB. LeonsNew
Centers
D. ChengNew
UMass Lowell
Guards
C. Jones18 min · TRJ. Newton17 min · TRI. Walter8 minK. GilesNewJ. CannadyNewM. EllisNew
Forwards
V. Okojie18 minJ. Harris11 min · TRJ. Roberson7 minD. HandNewE. DialloNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
STOUML
Scoring
64.2 #353Points per game71.7 #253
0.95 #357Points per possession1.04 #272
67.6 #244Pace (possessions)68.9 #189
Shooting
46.9 #339Effective FG%49.8 #247
31.7 #2943-point %32.2 #269
40.5 #1583-point attempt rate31.3 #336
27.3 #350Free throw rate34.9 #183
Possessions
19.4 #333Turnover rate18.0 #269
27.5 #282Offensive rebound rate32.7 #98
11.8 #298Assists per game11.9 #294
Defense
69.5 #56Points allowed77.4 #249
1.03 #57Points allowed per possession1.13 #277
47.8 #36Opponent effective FG%53.5 #284
33.4 #150Opponent 3-point %34.6 #226
13.4 #347Turnovers forced14.2 #329
72.9 #40Defensive rebound rate70.7 #126
4.7 #347Steals per game5.1 #326
4.0 #75Blocks per game3.0 #222
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Stonehill

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · Northeast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Mercyhurst51–56
  • W@ Le Moyne81–71
  • Lvs Mercyhurst72–75
  • Wvs Saint Francis Red Wolves103–77
  • Wvs Le Moyne77–68

A week or more of rest.

UMass Lowell

12-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-8 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ UMBC69–91
  • Wvs UAlbany81–76
  • W@ Maine67–56
  • Lvs UMBC60–84
  • L@ Vermont64–66

A week or more of rest.