Chicago State Cougars at Stonehill Skyhawks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Jan 10, 2:00 PM ETMerkert Gymnasium · at Stonehill · Conference game

#362CHSTChicago St82final

Final

#349STOStonehill85▲ winner

Closing lineSTO -4.5✓ CHST covered by 1.5

Closing total135.5Over by 31.5

Season records: Chicago St and Stonehill
CHST	This season	STO
1-14	Record	2-12
6-9	ATS	8-6
9-6	O/U	5-9

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CHST 68–71 STO · ✓ STO (62%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
CHST	33	38	11	82
STO	35	36	14	85

1st half: CHST 33, STO 35 (STO by 2). The model had STO by 1.9 and a total of 65.1 (actual 68).

Team stats

CHST		STO
29-64 45%	Field goals	29-61 48%
7-17 41%	3-pointers	12-32 38%
17-21 81%	Free throws	15-21 71%
24 5 off	Rebounds	44 16 off
15	Assists	20
11	Steals	2
1	Blocks	6
6	Turnovers	17
22	Fouls	16
36	Points in paint	32
14	Fast-break points	13

Players

CHST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Corey Sands G	39	8	2	0	3-5	1-2
Doyel Cockrill III G	24	13	1	1	4-8	3-5
Malek Robinson G	19	0	1	1	0-3	0-1
Stephen Byard F	18	6	3	1	3-6	0-0
Dailliss Cox F	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
CJ Ray F	42	27	5	4	10-19	1-4
Braelon Bush G	41	19	3	7	5-16	2-5
Joseph Owens F	24	7	7	0	3-4	0-0
Lionel Larvadain G	7	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Daniel Zatsepin F	5	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Marcus Tankersley, DaJuan Bates, Dakari Thomas, CJ Delancy, Deshawn Jean-Charles, Chauncey Gibson, Greg Spate

STO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Hermann Koffi G	40	18	4	2	6-14	4-10
Raymond Espinal-Guzman F	36	5	2	2	2-7	1-4
Ridvan Tutic F	36	15	13	2	6-7	0-0
Chas Stinson G	27	13	5	4	3-6	0-1
Rex Sunderland G	20	4	4	6	2-5	0-2
Bench
Davante Hackett G	39	22	11	2	7-17	5-13
Ethan Meuser F	12	2	4	1	1-2	0-0
Trenton Ruth G	10	6	1	1	2-3	2-2
Pearse McGuinn F	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Will Batchelder, Anthony Holden, Colin Byrne, Cory Lovell, Norbu Jenpa, Eino Montin, Charlie Diamantis

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	STO -4.5	STO -3.5	CHST +1.0	W CHST covered
Total	135.5	138.9	Over 3.4	W Over
Projected score	—	CHST 67.7 · STO 71.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	STO -1.9	STO -2.0
1H total	65.1	68
1H projected score	CHST 31.6 · STO 33.5	CHST 33 · STO 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHST WWLLL	6-9	40%	5-7	6-9
STO WLLWW	8-6	57%	1-2	0-2

Venue/role: CHST away, as underdog; STO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHST UUOUU	9-6	60%	1-14
STO UUUUO	5-9	36%	2-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHST	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
STO	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CHST 0–2 STOSTO leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · STO has won the last 2 meetings · CHST 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Jan 24, 2024-25	CHST 73 @ STO 75	STO -9.5	CHST W
Jan 12, 2024-25	STO 68 @ CHST 52	CHST +3.5	STO W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Chicago St

15 games played

Straight up

1-14

7% wins

Against the spread

6-9

40% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-6

60% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-147%

L L L L L L L L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-940%

L W L W W L L L L W W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-660%

O O O U U O O O O O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DEP	L 62-92	+24.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 154
Nov 6	@SLU	L 86-108	+30.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 194
Nov 11	@BTLR	L 66-98	+26.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 15	vsUIC	L 63-67	+9.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 130
Nov 18	@MINN	L 54-66	+27.5	W +15.5	144.5	U 120
Nov 20	@IOWA	L 54-93	+31.5	L −7.5	142.5	O 147
Nov 25	@PFW	L 77-90	+12.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 167
Nov 28	@YSU	L 64-87	+14.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 151
Dec 6	@ILST	L 53-95	+20.5	L −21.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 14	@LUC	W 84-75	+15.5	W +24.5	140.5	O 159
Dec 16	@BGSU	L 55-76	+21.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 131
Dec 20	@IU	L 58-78	+38.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 136
Jan 2	vsWAG	L 72-79	+1.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 151
Jan 4	vsLIU	L 55-74	+7.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 8	@FDU	L 63-70	+4.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEP

L 62-92

−5.5

SLU

L 86-108

+8.5

BTLR

L 66-98

−5.5

UIC

L 63-67

+5.5

MINN

L 54-66

+15.5

IOWA

L 54-93

−7.5

PFW

L 77-90

−0.5

YSU

L 64-87

−8.5

ILST

L 53-95

−21.5

LUC

W 84-75

+24.5

BGSU

L 55-76

+0.5

L 58-78

+18.5

WAG

L 72-79

−5.5

LIU

L 55-74

−11.5

FDU

L 63-70

−2.5

covered 6didn’t cover 9avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEP

L 62-92

+10.5

SLU

L 86-108

+38.5

BTLR

L 66-98

+5.5

UIC

L 63-67

−26.5

MINN

L 54-66

−24.5

IOWA

L 54-93

+4.5

PFW

L 77-90

+17.5

YSU

L 64-87

+4.5

ILST

L 53-95

+3.5

LUC

W 84-75

+18.5

BGSU

L 55-76

−17.5

L 58-78

−16.5

WAG

L 72-79

+4.5

LIU

L 55-74

−22.5

FDU

L 63-70

−10.5

over 9under 6avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Stonehill

14 games played

Straight up

2-12

14% wins

Against the spread

8-6

57% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-9

36% overs · avg −5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-1214%

L L L L L W L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

8-657%

W L W L W W L W L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

5-936%

U U O U O O U U O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@DEP	L 64-72	+22.5	W +14.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 11	@URI	L 57-80	+16.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 137
Nov 14	@FAIR	L 71-73	+6.5	W +4.5	143.5	O 144
Nov 15	vsL-MD	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	138.5	U 137
Nov 17	@ISU	L 57-96	+40.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 153
Nov 21	vsLAF	W 74-70	+1.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 26	vsUML	L 64-75	-2.5	L −13.5	148.5	U 139
Nov 30	@QUIN	L 62-76	+15.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 138
Dec 2	@BRY	L 65-77	+6.5	L −5.5	134.5	O 142
Dec 17	@UNH	L 58-59	+3.5	W +2.5	138.5	U 117
Dec 22	@SYR	L 48-77	+22.5	L −6.5	140.5	U 125
Jan 2	vsNHVN	L 55-70	-1.5	L −16.5	128.5	U 125
Jan 4	@WAG	W 69-60	+7.5	W +16.5	139.5	U 129
Jan 8	@CCSU	L 69-76	+7.5	W +0.5	134.5	O 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEP

L 64-72

+14.5

URI

L 57-80

−6.5

FAIR

L 71-73

+4.5

L-MD

L 63-74

−4.5

ISU

L 57-96

+1.5

LAF

W 74-70

+5.5

UML

L 64-75

−13.5

QUIN

L 62-76

+1.5

BRY

L 65-77

−5.5

UNH

L 58-59

+2.5

SYR

L 48-77

−6.5

NHVN

L 55-70

−16.5

WAG

W 69-60

+16.5

CCSU

L 69-76

+0.5

covered 8didn’t cover 6avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEP

L 64-72

−11.5

URI

L 57-80

−14.5

FAIR

L 71-73

+0.5

L-MD

L 63-74

−1.5

ISU

L 57-96

+6.5

LAF

W 74-70

+2.5

UML

L 64-75

−9.5

QUIN

L 62-76

−10.5

BRY

L 65-77

+7.5

UNH

L 58-59

−21.5

SYR

L 48-77

−15.5

NHVN

L 55-70

−3.5

WAG

W 69-60

−10.5

CCSU

L 69-76

+10.5

over 5under 9avg −5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Chicago State Cougars at Stonehill Skyhawks

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Chicago St

Stonehill

Chicago St

Stonehill