Chicago State Cougars at Fairleigh Dickinson Knights: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Jan 8, 5:00 PM ETBogota Savings Bank Center · at FDU · Conference game

#362CHSTChicago St63final

Final

#356FDUFDU70▲ winner

Closing lineFDU -4.5✓ FDU covered by 2.5

Closing total143.5Under by 10.5

Season records: Chicago St and FDU
CHST	This season	FDU
1-13	Record	1-11
6-8	ATS	3-9
9-5	O/U	5-7

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CHST 72–75 FDU · ✓ FDU (61%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CHST	21	42	63
FDU	31	39	70

1st half: CHST 21, FDU 31 (FDU by 10). The model had FDU by 1.7 and a total of 69.2 (actual 52).

Team stats

CHST		FDU
20-49 41%	Field goals	18-47 38%
9-23 39%	3-pointers	9-31 29%
14-17 82%	Free throws	25-34 74%
26 3 off	Rebounds	39 12 off
6	Assists	10
8	Steals	5
1	Blocks	2
13	Turnovers	14
24	Fouls	15
16	Points in paint	16
6	Fast-break points	8

Players

CHST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
CJ Ray F	34	15	1	2	6-10	3-5
Braelon Bush G	29	7	1	2	1-11	1-6
Doyel Cockrill III G	27	14	1	0	4-8	3-6
Malek Robinson G	22	9	1	1	3-4	2-3
Joseph Owens F	16	3	2	0	0-2	0-0
Bench
Stephen Byard F	26	15	8	0	6-8	0-0
Corey Sands G	24	0	2	1	0-4	0-3
Daniel Zatsepin F	10	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Dakari Thomas G	5	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Lionel Larvadain G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Dailliss Cox F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Deshawn Jean-Charles, Marcus Tankersley, CJ Delancy, Chauncey Gibson, Greg Spate, DaJuan Bates

FDU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joey Niesman G	36	18	3	2	5-9	3-6
Taeshaud Jackson F	30	17	14	2	4-5	3-4
Cyril Martynov C	24	1	6	2	0-2	0-0
Eric Parnell G	24	11	3	1	4-12	1-7
Raysean Johnson G	20	5	2	0	1-5	1-5
Bench
Arthur Cox F	23	12	4	2	3-5	1-3
Ras Elijah Godbolt G	19	1	2	0	0-2	0-1
David Jevtic G	16	5	0	1	1-5	0-3
Noah Melson G	5	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Sebastian Haubro C	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Josiah Francis, Andrew Canda, Chid Ekwommadu, Cole Alexander, Kody Frey, Tyler McQuaid

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FDU -4.5	FDU -3.1	CHST +1.4	L FDU covered
Total	143.5	147.7	Over 4.2	L Under
Projected score	—	CHST 72.3 · FDU 75.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FDU -1.7	FDU -10.0
1H total	69.2	52
1H projected score	CHST 33.7 · FDU 35.5	CHST 21 · FDU 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHST WWWLL	6-8	43%	5-6	6-8
FDU LWWWL	3-9	25%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: CHST away, as underdog; FDU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHST OUUOU	9-5	64%	1-13
FDU UUUOO	5-7	42%	1-11

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHST	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
FDU	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

CHST 1–2 FDUFDU leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · FDU has won the last 2 meetings · CHST 1-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 13, 2024-25	CHST 49 @ FDU 91	FDU -8.5	FDU W
Jan 20, 2024-25	FDU 58 @ CHST 48	CHST +3.5	FDU W
Jan 10, 2023-24	CHST 75 @ FDU 74	FDU -2.5	CHST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Chicago St

14 games played

Straight up

1-13

7% wins

Against the spread

6-8

43% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-5

64% overs · avg 0 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-137%

L L L L L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-843%

L W L W W L L L L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-564%

O O O U U O O O O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DEP	L 62-92	+24.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 154
Nov 6	@SLU	L 86-108	+30.5	W +8.5	155.5	O 194
Nov 11	@BTLR	L 66-98	+26.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 15	vsUIC	L 63-67	+9.5	W +5.5	156.5	U 130
Nov 18	@MINN	L 54-66	+27.5	W +15.5	144.5	U 120
Nov 20	@IOWA	L 54-93	+31.5	L −7.5	142.5	O 147
Nov 25	@PFW	L 77-90	+12.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 167
Nov 28	@YSU	L 64-87	+14.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 151
Dec 6	@ILST	L 53-95	+20.5	L −21.5	144.5	O 148
Dec 14	@LUC	W 84-75	+15.5	W +24.5	140.5	O 159
Dec 16	@BGSU	L 55-76	+21.5	W +0.5	148.5	U 131
Dec 20	@IU	L 58-78	+38.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 136
Jan 2	vsWAG	L 72-79	+1.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 151
Jan 4	vsLIU	L 55-74	+7.5	L −11.5	151.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEP

L 62-92

−5.5

SLU

L 86-108

+8.5

BTLR

L 66-98

−5.5

UIC

L 63-67

+5.5

MINN

L 54-66

+15.5

IOWA

L 54-93

−7.5

PFW

L 77-90

−0.5

YSU

L 64-87

−8.5

ILST

L 53-95

−21.5

LUC

W 84-75

+24.5

BGSU

L 55-76

+0.5

L 58-78

+18.5

WAG

L 72-79

−5.5

LIU

L 55-74

−11.5

covered 6didn’t cover 8avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEP

L 62-92

+10.5

SLU

L 86-108

+38.5

BTLR

L 66-98

+5.5

UIC

L 63-67

−26.5

MINN

L 54-66

−24.5

IOWA

L 54-93

+4.5

PFW

L 77-90

+17.5

YSU

L 64-87

+4.5

ILST

L 53-95

+3.5

LUC

W 84-75

+18.5

BGSU

L 55-76

−17.5

L 58-78

−16.5

WAG

L 72-79

+4.5

LIU

L 55-74

−22.5

over 9under 5avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

FDU

12 games played

Straight up

1-11

8% wins

Against the spread

3-9

25% covers · avg −1.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

5-7

42% overs · avg +0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-118%

L L L L L L L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-925%

L L L L L L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

5-742%

U O U O U O U U U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@ISU	L 50-88	+37.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 138
Nov 8	@SPU	L 83-93	+6.5	L −3.5	137.5	O 176
Nov 12	@TEX	L 58-93	+31.5	L −3.5	158.5	U 151
Nov 15	@NJIT	L 81-93	+2.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 174
Nov 24	vsETAM	L 65-70	+3.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 135
Nov 26	vsARMY	L 73-81	-4.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 154
Dec 2	@PROV	L 64-94	+26.5	L −3.5	162.5	U 158
Dec 10	@FOR	L 54-75	+11.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 129
Dec 22	@BC	L 61-72	+16.5	W +5.5	141.5	U 133
Dec 29	@MINN	L 43-60	+25.5	W +8.5	139.5	U 103
Jan 2	@MERC	W 74-67	+5.5	W +12.5	133.5	O 141
Jan 4	@SFPA	L 82-85	-2.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ISU

L 50-88

−0.5

SPU

L 83-93

−3.5

TEX

L 58-93

−3.5

NJIT

L 81-93

−9.5

ETAM

L 65-70

−1.5

ARMY

L 73-81

−12.5

PROV

L 64-94

−3.5

FOR

L 54-75

−9.5

L 61-72

+5.5

MINN

L 43-60

+8.5

MERC

W 74-67

+12.5

SFPA

L 82-85

−5.5

covered 3didn’t cover 9avg −1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ISU

L 50-88

−9.5

SPU

L 83-93

+38.5

TEX

L 58-93

−7.5

NJIT

L 81-93

+27.5

ETAM

L 65-70

−14.5

ARMY

L 73-81

+1.5

PROV

L 64-94

−4.5

FOR

L 54-75

−12.5

L 61-72

−8.5

MINN

L 43-60

−36.5

MERC

W 74-67

+7.5

SFPA

L 82-85

+23.5

over 5under 7avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Chicago State Cougars at Fairleigh Dickinson Knights

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Chicago St

FDU

Chicago St

FDU