UMass Lowell River Hawks at Saint Peter's Peacocks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 2:00 PM ETYanitelli Center · at Saint Peter's

Final

Closing lineSPU -8.5✓ UML covered by 6.5

Closing total147.5Under by 13.5

Season records: UMass Lowell and Saint Peter's
UML	This season	SPU
0-5	Record	1-3
1-4	ATS	2-2
4-1	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UML 73–78 SPU · ✓ SPU (68%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UML	31	35	66
SPU	36	32	68

1st half: UML 31, SPU 36 (SPU by 5). The model had SPU by 3.0 and a total of 70.9 (actual 67).

Team stats

UML		SPU
24-46 52%	Field goals	24-66 36%
2-12 17%	3-pointers	11-34 32%
16-29 55%	Free throws	9-12 75%
43 13 off	Rebounds	31 12 off
15	Assists	14
6	Steals	21
4	Blocks	3
24	Turnovers	12
13	Fouls	20
42	Points in paint	22
10	Fast-break points	11

Players

UML	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Darrel Yepdo G	37	4	7	6	2-8	0-4
Xavier Spencer G	36	2	6	3	0-5	0-3
Austin Green F	26	19	10	0	6-9	0-0
Shawn Simmons II F	23	8	7	1	2-4	0-0
Jared Frey G	22	3	2	1	1-4	1-4
Bench
JJ Massaquoi F	25	18	4	2	8-10	0-0
Khalil Farmer G	18	6	2	1	2-2	1-1
Angel Montas Jr. G	7	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Victor Okojie F	6	6	1	0	3-4	0-0

Did not play: Keenan Bey, Kris Johnson, Isaiah Walter, Jerrell Roberson II

SPU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brent Bland G	40	13	5	2	5-16	3-12
Bryce Eaton G	28	8	3	6	2-10	1-5
Jahki Gupton F	26	5	4	0	2-6	1-2
Adetokunbo Bakare G	17	5	1	0	2-6	1-3
Lucas Scroggins F	6	2	3	1	1-2	0-0
Bench
TJ Robinson G	22	15	0	3	4-11	2-4
Bol Agu F	21	10	4	1	4-7	2-4
J'Quan Ewing F	21	4	7	1	2-3	0-0
Eric Morgan Jr. G	15	6	1	0	2-4	1-3
Shaedon Simpson G	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Elijah Perkins, Zaakir Williamson, Akil Watson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SPU -8.5	SPU -5.3	UML +3.2	W UML covered
Total	147.5	151.3	Over 3.8	L Under
Projected score	—	UML 73 · SPU 78.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SPU -3.0	SPU -5.0
1H total	70.9	67
1H projected score	UML 33.9 · SPU 37	UML 31 · SPU 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UML LLLLW	1-4	20%	1-3	1-3
SPU LWWL	2-2	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: UML away, as underdog; SPU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UML OUOOO	4-1	80%	0-5
SPU UOUO	2-2	50%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UMLlast 5	0-5 0%	1-4 20%	4-1 80%
SPUlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

UML 2–0 SPUUML leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · UML has won the last 2 meetings · UML 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 8, 2024-25	SPU 74 @ UML 81	UML -10.5	SPU W
Nov 20, 2023-24	UML 69 @ SPU 61	SPU +5.5	UML W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UMass Lowell

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −7.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +7.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-180%

O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@CONN	L 47-110	+36.5	L −26.5	151.5	O 157
Nov 10	vsNHVN	L 67-73	-10.5	L −16.5	142.5	U 140
Nov 13	@COLU	L 72-86	+13.5	L −0.5	156.5	O 158
Nov 16	@WAKE	L 75-109	+30.5	L −3.5	165.5	O 184
Nov 19	@BRAD	L 77-87	+21.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CONN

L 47-110

−26.5

NHVN

L 67-73

−16.5

COLU

L 72-86

−0.5

WAKE

L 75-109

−3.5

BRAD

L 77-87

+11.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −7.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CONN

L 47-110

+5.5

NHVN

L 67-73

−2.5

COLU

L 72-86

+1.5

WAKE

L 75-109

+18.5

BRAD

L 77-87

+14.5

over 4under 1avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Saint Peter's

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +10.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@HALL	L 50-77	+13.5	L −13.5	129.5	U 127
Nov 8	vsFDU	W 93-83	-6.5	W +3.5	137.5	O 176
Nov 12	@VCU	L 61-78	+20.5	W +3.5	147.5	U 139
Nov 18	@DEL	L 70-81	+4.5	L −6.5	137.5	O 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HALL

L 50-77

−13.5

FDU

W 93-83

+3.5

VCU

L 61-78

+3.5

DEL

L 70-81

−6.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HALL

L 50-77

−2.5

FDU

W 93-83

+38.5

VCU

L 61-78

−8.5

DEL

L 70-81

+13.5

over 2under 2avg +10.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UMass Lowell River Hawks at Saint Peter's Peacocks

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

UMass Lowell

Saint Peter's

UMass Lowell

Saint Peter's