1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. BTLR @ PROV
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

Butler Bulldogs at Providence Friars

Amica Mutual Pavilion · at Providence · Conference game
#72BTLRButler
@
#52PROVProvidence
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
BTLRThis seasonPROV
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PROV 84–78 · win probability PROV 71%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 162.4
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

BTLR 3, PROV 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BTLRBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: BTLR 42.1, PROV 36.7. Allowed: BTLR 24.9, PROV 32.7
PROVSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: BTLR 50.9 and allows 51.9; PROV 55.0 and allows 51.4
PROVSmall
PROV offense vs BTLR defense
Offense 35th of 366 against a defense 107th, on the model’s ratings
BTLRSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: BTLR 15.9%, PROV 16.7%. Forced: BTLR 15.1%, PROV 13.1%
BTLRSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: BTLR 34.5%, PROV 31.7%. Defensive: BTLR 70.0%, PROV 69.2%
PROVSmall
Home court
PROV at home. This season: PROV 0-0 at home, BTLR 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
BTLR hits 32.7% and allows 33.3%; PROV hits 36.4% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 35.0% and 40.5% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 73 possessions: BTLR plays 71.1 a game (69th fastest), PROV 74.2 (10th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Schedule so far
BTLR has played the 56th-hardest schedule, PROV the 31st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
BTLR offense vs PROV defense
Offense 56th of 366 against a defense 81st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: BTLR 22%, PROV 13%. Transfers in: BTLR 5, PROV 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PROV -6.4—
Total—162.4—
Projected score—BTLR 78 · PROV 84.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPROV -3.7—
1H total75.8—
1H projected scoreBTLR 36.1 · PROV 39.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Providence has the better starters

Position by position: Butler 0, Providence 1, even 4
ButlerBetterProvidence
G J. Ellerbee TR13.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 66
Even
G R. Sabol TR18.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.3 ast Score 66
G J. Jackson9.5 pts · 3.5 reb · 3.8 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Mack TR13.6 pts · 3 reb · 4.1 ast Score 80
F C. Moore TR11.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1 ast Score 46
PROVBig
G D. Vanterpool TR15.2 pts · 6 reb · 2.5 ast Score 89
F T. Anderson TR10.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 92
Even
G M. Byrd TR10.6 pts · 4.7 reb · 2.7 ast Score 90
C D. Jones6.3 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 76
Even
G R. Mela9.9 pts · 5.3 reb · 2 ast Score 81
ButlerBetterProvidence
BTLR offense56th of 366 · +3.1
Even
PROV defense81st of 366 · +0.3
BTLR defense107th of 366 · -1.1
PROVSmall
PROV offense35th of 366 · +5.2
Backcourt+1.3 · 2 players
PROVBig
Backcourt+8.2 · 5 players
Frontcourt+3.5 · 3 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench+0.9 · 3 players
PROVBig
Bench+4.2 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestBTLR betterPROV betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Butler
Guards
J. Ellerbee28 min · TRJ. Jackson23 minE. Klafke15 min · TRE. McComb1 minB. WalkerNewS. AdlerNew
Forwards
C. Moore26 min · TRT. Anderson19 min · TRS. Calderon4 min · TRH. BrutusNewB. CardinalNewM. MaricNew
Centers
D. Jones20 minK. NdzieNew
Providence
Guards
R. Sabol37 min · TRM. Mack32 min · TRD. Vanterpool32 min · TRM. Byrd28 min · TRR. Mela26 minG. Hightower10 min · TR
Forwards
A. Page23 min · TRJ. Bannarbie16 min · TRJ. BardwellNewC. WaltersNewL. MarangonNew
Centers
S. Aletan26 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
BTLRPROV
Scoring
79.4 #75Points per game85.3 #15
1.12 #106Points per possession1.15 #58
71.1 #69Pace (possessions)74.2 #10
Shooting
50.9 #199Effective FG%55.0 #37
32.7 #2423-point %36.4 #45
35.0 #2763-point attempt rate40.5 #157
42.1 #29Free throw rate36.7 #138
Possessions
15.9 #131Turnover rate16.7 #174
34.5 #58Offensive rebound rate31.7 #135
15.5 #64Assists per game14.0 #146
Defense
77.5 #252Points allowed84.0 #356
1.09 #195Points allowed per possession1.13 #292
51.9 #208Opponent effective FG%51.4 #179
33.3 #142Opponent 3-point %35.3 #265
15.1 #272Turnovers forced13.1 #352
70.0 #163Defensive rebound rate69.2 #195
6.5 #178Steals per game5.4 #313
3.2 #191Blocks per game3.9 #86
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Butler

16-16 in 2025-26 overall · 7-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Providence81–91
  • W@ DePaul81–71
  • Lvs Creighton59–76
  • L@ Villanova73–82
  • Wvs Xavier80–75

A week or more of rest.

Providence

15-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-14 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ St John's72–85
  • Wvs Butler91–81
  • L@ Georgetown79–80
  • Lvs Marquette56–78
  • W@ Creighton79–76

A week or more of rest.