Amica Mutual Pavilion · at Providence · Conference game
Closing line
PROV -2.5✓ PROV covered by 7.5
PROV -2.5✓ PROV covered by 7.5Closing total168.5Over by 15.5
 BTLR | This season | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| 13-9 | Record | 9-13 |
| 11-11 | ATS | 12-10 |
| 12-10 | O/U | 16-6 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BTLR 87–90 PROV · ✓ PROV (60%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | OT | 2OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTLR | 34 | 39 | 9 | 5 | 87 |
| PROV | 32 | 41 | 9 | 15 | 97 |
1st half: BTLR 34, PROV 32 (BTLR by 2). The model had PROV by 1.5 and a total of 82.5 (actual 66).
Team stats
| BTLR | PROV | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-65 45% | Field goals | 31-66 47% |
| 6-21 29% | 3-pointers | 9-28 32% |
| 23-34 68% | Free throws | 26-39 67% |
| 36 12 off | Rebounds | 46 16 off |
| 10 | Assists | 11 |
| 7 | Steals | 6 |
| 3 | Blocks | 1 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 28 | Fouls | 22 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 15 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| BTLR | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finley Bizjack G | 49 | 30 | 3 | 5 | 7-17 | 2-9 |
| Michael Ajayi F | 46 | 20 | 12 | 1 | 8-14 | 0-1 |
| Jamie Kaiser Jr. F | 42 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Drayton Jones C | 26 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor G | 24 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 3-5 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Evan Haywood G | 25 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3-11 | 2-7 |
| Yohan Traore F | 24 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-1 |
| Yame Butler G | 10 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Jackson Keith F | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ethan McComb G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Bryson Cardinal, Kevin Ndzie, Jalen Jackson, Jack McCaffery, Azavier Robinson
| PROV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mela G | 44 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 6-10 | 0-1 |
| Jaylin Sellers G | 42 | 36 | 6 | 2 | 11-20 | 6-12 |
| Stefan Vaaks G | 37 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 4-15 | 2-11 |
| Oswin Erhunmwunse F | 34 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| Jamier Jones G | 30 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 3-8 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cole Hargrove F | 26 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Nilavan Daniels G | 22 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Duncan Powell F | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jack Williams, Peteris Pinnis, Jason Edwards, Jaylen Harrell, Rich Barron, Daquan Davis, Corey Floyd Jr.
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketPROV -2.5
ModelPROV -2.8
Model edgePROV +0.3
W PROV covered
Total
Market168.5
Model176.4
Model edgeOver 7.9
W Over
Projected score
BTLR 86.8 · PROV 89.6
BTLR 87 · PROV 97
Win probability
PROV 60%
1st half
Spread
PROV -1.5
BTLR -2.0
Total
82.5
66 points
Projected score
BTLR 40.5 · PROV 42
BTLR 34 · PROV 32
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPROV -3.5
1 → BTLR
ClosePROV -2.5
1 pt toward BTLR
Total
Open171.5
▼ 3
Close168.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
BTLR +130 · PROV -155
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PROV -3.5 · closed PROV -2.5 · moved 1 toward BTLRmodel PROV -3
model PROV -3
Opened 171.5 · closed 168.5 · moved 3 downmodel 176.5
model 176.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTLR | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 7-3 70% |
| PROV | 2-8 20% | 5-5 50% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 of 11 since 2021-22
BTLR 4–7 PROVPROV leads · 11 games since 2021-22 · BTLR has won the last 3 meetings · BTLR 4-7 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025-26 | PROV 110 @ BTLR 113 | BTLR -3.5 | PROV W |
| Mar 12, 2024-25 | BTLR 75 vs PROV 69 | PROV +1.5 | BTLR W |
| Feb 8, 2024-25 | PROV 81 @ BTLR 82 | BTLR -4.5 | PROV W |
| Jan 8, 2024-25 | BTLR 65 @ PROV 84 | PROV -2.5 | PROV W |
| Feb 10, 2023-24 | PROV 72 @ BTLR 75 | BTLR -5.5 | PROV W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Butler
22 games played
Straight up
13-9
59% wins
Against the spread
11-11
50% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
12-10
55% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | vs USI | W 88-58 | -22.5 | W +7.5 | 156.5 | U 146 |
| Nov 8 | vs IUIN | W 112-80 | -20.5 | W +11.5 | 192.5 | U 192 |
| Nov 11 | vs CHST | W 98-66 | -26.5 | W +5.5 | 158.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 15 | @ SMU | L 85-87 | +7.5 | W +5.5 | 163.5 | O 172 |
| Nov 21 | vs SC | W 79-72 | -3.5 | W +3.5 | 150.5 | O 151 |
| Nov 23 | vs UVA | W 80-73 | +6.5 | W +13.5 | 155.5 | U 153 |
| Nov 28 | vs WRST | W 94-69 | -14.5 | W +10.5 | 150.5 | O 163 |
| Dec 2 | vs EMU | W 84-68 | -17.5 | L −1.5 | 153.5 | U 152 |
| Dec 6 | vs BOIS | L 68-77 | -2.5 | L −11.5 | 148.5 | U 145 |
| Dec 13 | vsPROV | W 113-110 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 164.5 | O 223 |
| Dec 16 | @ CONN | L 60-79 | +15.5 | L −3.5 | 144.5 | U 139 |
| Dec 20 | vs NU | W 61-58 | -3.5 | L −0.5 | 154.5 | U 119 |
| Dec 22 | vs NJIT | W 101-52 | -32.5 | W +16.5 | 149.5 | O 153 |
| Dec 30 | @ CREI | L 85-89 | +5.5 | W +1.5 | 156.5 | O 174 |
| Jan 3 | vs VILL | L 67-85 | -2.5 | L −20.5 | 149.5 | O 152 |
| Jan 6 | vs SJU | L 70-84 | +4.5 | L −9.5 | 162.5 | U 154 |
| Jan 14 | @ XAV | L 75-89 | -1.5 | L −15.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Jan 17 | @ HALL | W 77-66 | +6.5 | W +17.5 | 144.5 | U 143 |
| Jan 20 | vs DEP | W 87-80 | -7.5 | L −0.5 | 147.5 | O 167 |
| Jan 23 | vs MARQ | W 87-76 | -5.5 | W +5.5 | 161.5 | O 163 |
| Jan 28 | @SJU | L 70-92 | +12.5 | L −9.5 | 158.5 | O 162 |
| Jan 31 | vs GTWN | L 64-77 | -5.5 | L −18.5 | 149.5 | U 141 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
5
vsUSI
USIW 88-58
+7.5
8
vsIUIN
IUINW 112-80
+11.5
11
vsCHST
CHSTW 98-66
+5.5
15
@SMU
SMUL 85-87
+5.5
21
vsSC
SCW 79-72
+3.5
23
vsUVA
UVAW 80-73
+13.5
28
vsWRST
WRSTW 94-69
+10.5
2
vsEMU
EMUW 84-68
−1.5
6
vsBOIS
BOISL 68-77
−11.5
13
vsPROV
PROVW 113-110
−0.5
16
@CONN
CONNL 60-79
−3.5
20
vsNU
NUW 61-58
−0.5
22
vsNJIT
NJITW 101-52
+16.5
30
@CREI
CREIL 85-89
+1.5
3
vsVILL
VILLL 67-85
−20.5
6
vsSJU
SJUL 70-84
−9.5
14
@XAV
XAVL 75-89
−15.5
17
@HALL
HALLW 77-66
+17.5
20
vsDEP
DEPW 87-80
−0.5
23
vsMARQ
MARQW 87-76
+5.5
28
@SJU
SJUL 70-92
−9.5
31
vsGTWN
GTWNL 64-77
−18.5
covered 11didn’t cover 11avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
5
vsUSI
USIW 88-58
−10.5
8
vsIUIN
IUINW 112-80
−0.5
11
vsCHST
CHSTW 98-66
+5.5
15
@SMU
SMUL 85-87
+8.5
21
vsSC
SCW 79-72
+0.5
23
vsUVA
UVAW 80-73
−2.5
28
vsWRST
WRSTW 94-69
+12.5
2
vsEMU
EMUW 84-68
−1.5
6
vsBOIS
BOISL 68-77
−3.5
13
vsPROV
PROVW 113-110
+58.5
16
@CONN
CONNL 60-79
−5.5
20
vsNU
NUW 61-58
−35.5
22
vsNJIT
NJITW 101-52
+3.5
30
@CREI
CREIL 85-89
+17.5
3
vsVILL
VILLL 67-85
+2.5
6
vsSJU
SJUL 70-84
−8.5
14
@XAV
XAVL 75-89
+2.5
17
@HALL
HALLW 77-66
−1.5
20
vsDEP
DEPW 87-80
+19.5
23
vsMARQ
MARQW 87-76
+1.5
28
@SJU
SJUL 70-92
+3.5
31
vsGTWN
GTWNL 64-77
−8.5
over 12under 10avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Providence
22 games played
Straight up
9-13
41% wins
Against the spread
12-10
55% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
16-6
73% overs · avg +13.6 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
| Date | Opp | Result | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | vs HC | W 89-79 | -23.5 | L −13.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Nov 8 | vs VT | L 101-107 | -2.5 | L −8.5 | 157.5 | O 208 |
| Nov 11 | vs PENN | W 106-81 | -19.5 | W +5.5 | 172.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 14 | @ COLO | L 88-97 | +1.5 | L −7.5 | 163.5 | O 185 |
| Nov 18 | vs UNH | W 98-66 | -29.5 | W +2.5 | 161.5 | O 164 |
| Nov 22 | vs PSU | W 77-65 | -3.5 | W +8.5 | 165.5 | U 142 |
| Nov 27 | vs WIS | L 83-104 | +6.5 | L −14.5 | 166.5 | O 187 |
| Nov 28 | vs FLA | L 78-90 | +12.5 | W +0.5 | 169.5 | U 168 |
| Dec 2 | vs FDU | W 94-64 | -26.5 | W +3.5 | 162.5 | U 158 |
| Dec 6 | vs URI | W 90-71 | -7.5 | W +11.5 | 159.5 | O 161 |
| Dec 9 | vs BRWN | W 86-79 | -19.5 | L −12.5 | 145.5 | O 165 |
| Dec 13 | @BTLR | L 110-113 | +3.5 | W +0.5 | 164.5 | O 223 |
| Dec 19 | vsHALL | L 67-72 | -1.5 | L −6.5 | 152.5 | U 139 |
| Jan 3 | @SJU | W 77-71 | +14.5 | W +20.5 | 166.5 | U 148 |
| Jan 7 | vsCONN | L 98-103 | +9.5 | W +4.5 | 152.5 | O 201 |
| Jan 10 | @XAV | L 84-97 | -1.5 | L −14.5 | 165.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 13 | vsVILL | L 82-88 | +2.5 | L −3.5 | 156.5 | O 170 |
| Jan 16 | vsCREI | W 93-88 | +2.5 | W +7.5 | 161.5 | O 181 |
| Jan 19 | @MARQ | L 104-105 | +2.5 | W +1.5 | 167.5 | O 209 |
| Jan 24 | vsGTWN | L 78-81 | -5.5 | L −8.5 | 159.5 | U 159 |
| Jan 27 | @CONN | L 81-87 | +15.5 | W +9.5 | 152.5 | O 168 |
| Jan 30 | @VILL | L 73-87 | +8.5 | L −5.5 | 157.5 | O 160 |
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
−13.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
−8.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+5.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
−7.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
+8.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
−14.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
+0.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
+3.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+11.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
−12.5
13
@BTLR
BTLRL 110-113
+0.5
19
vsHALL
HALLL 67-72
−6.5
3
@SJU
SJUW 77-71
+20.5
7
vsCONN
CONNL 98-103
+4.5
10
@XAV
XAVL 84-97
−14.5
13
vsVILL
VILLL 82-88
−3.5
16
vsCREI
CREIW 93-88
+7.5
19
@MARQ
MARQL 104-105
+1.5
24
vsGTWN
GTWNL 78-81
−8.5
27
@CONN
CONNL 81-87
+9.5
30
@VILL
VILLL 73-87
−5.5
covered 12didn’t cover 10avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsHC
HCW 89-79
+15.5
8
vsVT
VTL 101-107
+50.5
11
vsPENN
PENNW 106-81
+14.5
14
@COLO
COLOL 88-97
+21.5
18
vsUNH
UNHW 98-66
+2.5
22
vsPSU
PSUW 77-65
−23.5
27
vsWIS
WISL 83-104
+20.5
28
vsFLA
FLAL 78-90
−1.5
2
vsFDU
FDUW 94-64
−4.5
6
vsURI
URIW 90-71
+1.5
9
vsBRWN
BRWNW 86-79
+19.5
13
@BTLR
BTLRL 110-113
+58.5
19
vsHALL
HALLL 67-72
−13.5
3
@SJU
SJUW 77-71
−18.5
7
vsCONN
CONNL 98-103
+48.5
10
@XAV
XAVL 84-97
+15.5
13
vsVILL
VILLL 82-88
+13.5
16
vsCREI
CREIW 93-88
+19.5
19
@MARQ
MARQL 104-105
+41.5
24
vsGTWN
GTWNL 78-81
−0.5
27
@CONN
CONNL 81-87
+15.5
30
@VILL
VILLL 73-87
+2.5
over 16under 6avg +13.6 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Butler
13-9 overall · 4-7 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Georgetown64–77
- L@ St John's70–92
- Wvs Marquette87–76
- Wvs DePaul87–80
- W@ Seton Hall77–66
4 days since their last game.
Providence
9-13 overall · 2-9 in conference · Big East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Villanova73–87
- L@ UConn81–87
- Lvs Georgetown78–81
- L@ Marquette104–105
- Wvs Creighton93–88
5 days since their last game.