Northern Illinois Huskies at Lindenwood Lions: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 2:00 PM ETHyland Arena · at Lindenwood Lions

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: N Illinois and Lindenwood Lions
NIU	This season	LIN
1-0	Record	0-0
0-1	ATS	0-0
1-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LIN 80–71 · win probability LIN 79%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LIN has more of the edges

NIU 1, LIN 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

NIU has played the 167th-hardest schedule, LIN the 357th. A record against a soft schedule means less

LINBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NIU 47.6 and allows 55.6; LIN 48.0 and allows 49.1

LINSmall

Three-pointers

NIU hits 30.9% and allows 36.3%; LIN hits 29.4% and allows 32.4%. Threes are 45.0% and 30.7% of their shots

LINSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NIU 21.7%, LIN 18.7%. Forced: NIU 16.3%, LIN 18.4%

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: NIU plays 69.0 a game (181st fastest), LIN 73.0 (18th). Faster games mean more points

LINSmall

LIN offense vs NIU defense

Offense 250th of 366 against a defense 327th, on the model’s ratings

LINSmall

NIU offense vs LIN defense

Offense 327th of 366 against a defense 261st, on the model’s ratings

NIUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NIU 30%, LIN 0%. Transfers in: NIU 6, LIN 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

LINSmall

Home court

LIN at home. This season: LIN 0-0 at home, NIU 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NIU 38.3, LIN 38.6. Allowed: NIU 38.3, LIN 37.4

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NIU 30.3%, LIN 33.3%. Defensive: NIU 70.0%, LIN 68.3%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LIN -9.3	—
Total	—	150.3	—
Projected score	—	NIU 70.5 · LIN 79.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LIN -5.4	—
1H total	70.3	—
1H projected score	NIU 32.4 · LIN 37.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU LWLLL	13-15	46%	10-7	—
LIN LLWWW	13-17	43%	4-7	—

Venue/role: NIU away; LIN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU UUUOU	8-20	29%	7-21
LIN UUOUU	17-13	57%	15-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%
LIN	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

N Illinois

No more games listed yet.

Lindenwood Lions

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NIU 0–1 LINLIN leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NIU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 2, 2025-26	LIN 99 @ NIU 64	NIU -3.5	LIN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Illinois

28 games played

Straight up

7-21

25% wins

Against the spread

13-15

46% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-20

29% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2125%

W L L L W L L L L W L L L L W L L W L W L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1546%

W W L W W L L L W L L W L L W W W W L W L L W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-2029%

O O U U U U O U O U U U U U U O U O U O U U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsULM	W 102-82	-7.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@WIS	L 72-97	+28.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 10	@GCU	L 59-88	+22.5	L −6.5	163.5	U 147
Nov 18	@UNI	L 57-70	+19.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 21	@LUC	W 76-59	+13.5	W +30.5	148.5	U 135
Nov 25	@APSU	L 59-77	+6.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 136
Dec 2	vsLIN	L 64-99	-3.5	L −38.5	147.5	O 163
Dec 6	@BRAD	L 55-84	+18.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 139
Dec 13	@ELON	L 79-85	+11.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 164
Dec 20	vsCMU	W 74-73	-2.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 31	vsBUF	L 67-81	+6.5	L −7.5	152.5	U 148
Jan 3	@KENT	L 73-77	+16.5	W +12.5	157.5	U 150
Jan 6	vsTOL	L 61-75	+7.5	L −6.5	161.5	U 136
Jan 13	@EMU	L 59-77	+7.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 17	vsMASS	W 70-68	+8.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 138
Jan 20	@OHIO	L 77-80	+11.5	W +8.5	154.5	O 157
Jan 24	@BALL	L 53-58	+5.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 111
Jan 27	vsWMU	W 85-65	-1.5	W +18.5	146.5	O 150
Jan 31	@M-OH	L 61-85	+16.5	L −7.5	158.5	U 146
Feb 7	@GAST	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 11	vsBGSU	L 52-68	+7.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 120
Feb 14	@CMU	L 46-88	+4.5	L −37.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 17	@BUF	W 72-70	+9.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 142
Feb 21	vsOHIO	L 66-74	+6.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 24	@TOL	L 69-79	+12.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 148
Feb 28	vsBALL	L 43-79	-1.5	L −37.5	133.5	U 122
Mar 3	vsKENT	L 76-102	+10.5	L −15.5	148.5	O 178
Mar 6	@AKR	L 55-94	+23.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+12.5

WIS

L 72-97

+3.5

GCU

L 59-88

−6.5

UNI

L 57-70

+6.5

LUC

W 76-59

+30.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

LIN

L 64-99

−38.5

BRAD

L 55-84

−10.5

ELON

L 79-85

+5.5

CMU

W 74-73

−1.5

BUF

L 67-81

−7.5

KENT

L 73-77

+12.5

TOL

L 61-75

−6.5

EMU

L 59-77

−10.5

MASS

W 70-68

+10.5

OHIO

L 77-80

+8.5

BALL

L 53-58

+0.5

WMU

W 85-65

+18.5

M-OH

L 61-85

−7.5

GAST

W 75-74

+5.5

BGSU

L 52-68

−8.5

CMU

L 46-88

−37.5

BUF

W 72-70

+11.5

OHIO

L 66-74

−1.5

TOL

L 69-79

+2.5

BALL

L 43-79

−37.5

KENT

L 76-102

−15.5

AKR

L 55-94

−15.5

covered 13didn’t cover 15avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+36.5

WIS

L 72-97

+11.5

GCU

L 59-88

−16.5

UNI

L 57-70

−19.5

LUC

W 76-59

−13.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

LIN

L 64-99

+15.5

BRAD

L 55-84

−7.5

ELON

L 79-85

+7.5

CMU

W 74-73

−2.5

BUF

L 67-81

−4.5

KENT

L 73-77

−7.5

TOL

L 61-75

−25.5

EMU

L 59-77

−5.5

MASS

W 70-68

−19.5

OHIO

L 77-80

+2.5

BALL

L 53-58

−30.5

WMU

W 85-65

+3.5

M-OH

L 61-85

−12.5

GAST

W 75-74

+5.5

BGSU

L 52-68

−24.5

CMU

L 46-88

−12.5

BUF

W 72-70

−3.5

OHIO

L 66-74

−8.5

TOL

L 69-79

−2.5

BALL

L 43-79

−11.5

KENT

L 76-102

+29.5

AKR

L 55-94

−6.5

over 8under 20avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lindenwood Lions

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

L L W L L W W W W L W W L L W L W L W W L W W L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

L L W L W W W L W L W L L L W L W L W L L W L L L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1357%

O O O U U U O O O U U O U O O U O O U O O O O U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@TTU	L 60-98	+29.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 158
Nov 10	@SLU	L 66-109	+24.5	L −18.5	165.5	O 175
Nov 14	vsCHSO	W 83-77	-2.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 160
Nov 16	@AAMU	L 65-74	+3.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 139
Nov 20	@IU	L 53-73	+32.5	W +12.5	155.5	U 126
Nov 24	vsKC	W 80-67	-4.5	W +8.5	152.5	U 147
Dec 2	@NIU	W 99-64	+3.5	W +38.5	147.5	O 163
Dec 6	@EIU	W 82-74	-8.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 156
Dec 18	vsWIU	W 92-76	-12.5	W +3.5	146.5	O 168
Dec 23	@MOST	L 65-70	+3.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 135
Jan 1	vsMORE	W 77-64	-6.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 141
Jan 3	vsUSI	W 83-80	-9.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 6	@SIUE	L 62-66	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 128
Jan 10	vsLR	L 74-82	-6.5	L −14.5	149.5	O 156
Jan 15	@SEMO	W 88-76	+6.5	W +18.5	154.5	O 164
Jan 17	@UTM	L 55-69	+2.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 124
Jan 22	vsTNTC	W 89-68	-8.5	W +12.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 24	vsTNST	L 86-96	-4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 182
Jan 29	@USI	W 73-60	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 133
Jan 31	@MORE	W 79-78	-1.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 157
Feb 3	vsSIUE	L 72-78	-4.5	L −10.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 5	@LR	W 79-74	-1.5	W +3.5	149.5	O 153
Feb 12	vsUTM	W 75-74	-1.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 14	vsSEMO	L 61-73	-1.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 134
Feb 19	@TNST	L 80-89	+3.5	L −5.5	159.5	O 169
Feb 21	@TNTC	L 57-72	-1.5	L −16.5	151.5	U 129
Feb 26	vsEIU	L 67-71	-7.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 138
Feb 28	@WIU	W 91-69	-11.5	W +10.5	149.5	O 160
Mar 4	vsLR	W 72-62	-5.5	W +4.5	148.5	U 134
Mar 5	vsSEMO	L 66-68	+3.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TTU

L 60-98

−8.5

SLU

L 66-109

−18.5

CHSO

W 83-77

+3.5

AAMU

L 65-74

−5.5

L 53-73

+12.5

W 80-67

+8.5

NIU

W 99-64

+38.5

EIU

W 82-74

−0.5

WIU

W 92-76

+3.5

MOST

L 65-70

−1.5

W 77-64

+6.5

USI

W 83-80

−6.5

SIUE

L 62-66

−2.5

L 74-82

−14.5

SEMO

W 88-76

+18.5

UTM

L 55-69

−11.5

TNTC

W 89-68

+12.5

TNST

L 86-96

−14.5

USI

W 73-60

+8.5

W 79-78

−0.5

SIUE

L 72-78

−10.5

W 79-74

+3.5

UTM

W 75-74

−0.5

SEMO

L 61-73

−13.5

TNST

L 80-89

−5.5

TNTC

L 57-72

−16.5

EIU

L 67-71

−11.5

WIU

W 91-69

+10.5

W 72-62

+4.5

SEMO

L 66-68

+1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TTU

L 60-98

+11.5

SLU

L 66-109

+9.5

CHSO

W 83-77

+4.5

AAMU

L 65-74

−10.5

L 53-73

−29.5

W 80-67

−5.5

NIU

W 99-64

+15.5

EIU

W 82-74

+10.5

WIU

W 92-76

+21.5

MOST

L 65-70

−10.5

W 77-64

−6.5

USI

W 83-80

+15.5

SIUE

L 62-66

−14.5

L 74-82

+6.5

SEMO

W 88-76

+9.5

UTM

L 55-69

−23.5

TNTC

W 89-68

+5.5

TNST

L 86-96

+21.5

USI

W 73-60

−17.5

W 79-78

+8.5

SIUE

L 72-78

+9.5

W 79-74

+3.5

UTM

W 75-74

+3.5

SEMO

L 61-73

−20.5

TNST

L 80-89

+9.5

TNTC

L 57-72

−22.5

EIU

L 67-71

−6.5

WIU

W 91-69

+10.5

W 72-62

−14.5

SEMO

L 66-68

−14.5

over 17under 13avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NIU66.3 #341

LIN74.4 #183

Points per possession

NIU0.96 #354

LIN1.02 #307

Pace (possessions)

NIU69.0 #181

LIN73.0 #18

Shooting

Effective FG%

NIU47.6 #324

LIN48.0 #313

3-point %

NIU30.9 #323

LIN29.4 #347

3-point attempt rate

NIU45.0 #66

LIN30.7 #346

Free throw rate

NIU38.3 #95

LIN38.6 #88

Possessions

Turnover rate

NIU21.7 #360

LIN18.7 #307

Offensive rebound rate

NIU30.3 #187

LIN33.3 #83

Assists per game

NIU11.6 #308

LIN13.0 #212

Defense

Points allowed

NIU78.9 #291

LIN75.0 #190

Points allowed per possession

NIU1.15 #323

LIN1.03 #52

Opponent effective FG%

NIU55.6 #342

LIN49.1 #72

Opponent 3-point %

NIU36.3 #315

LIN32.4 #84

Turnovers forced

NIU16.3 #199

LIN18.4 #78

Defensive rebound rate

NIU70.0 #161

LIN68.3 #244

Steals per game

NIU5.6 #288

LIN8.4 #24

Blocks per game

NIU1.9 #352

LIN4.4 #46

NIU		LIN
Scoring
66.3 #341	Points per game	74.4 #183
0.96 #354	Points per possession	1.02 #307
69.0 #181	Pace (possessions)	73.0 #18
Shooting
47.6 #324	Effective FG%	48.0 #313
30.9 #323	3-point %	29.4 #347
45.0 #66	3-point attempt rate	30.7 #346
38.3 #95	Free throw rate	38.6 #88
Possessions
21.7 #360	Turnover rate	18.7 #307
30.3 #187	Offensive rebound rate	33.3 #83
11.6 #308	Assists per game	13.0 #212
Defense
78.9 #291	Points allowed	75.0 #190
1.15 #323	Points allowed per possession	1.03 #52
55.6 #342	Opponent effective FG%	49.1 #72
36.3 #315	Opponent 3-point %	32.4 #84
16.3 #199	Turnovers forced	18.4 #78
70.0 #161	Defensive rebound rate	68.3 #244
5.6 #288	Steals per game	8.4 #24
1.9 #352	Blocks per game	4.4 #46

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Illinois

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Akron55–94
Lvs Kent State76–102
Lvs Ball State43–79
L@ Toledo69–79
Lvs Ohio66–74

A week or more of rest.

Lindenwood Lions

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SE Missouri66–68
Wvs Little Rock72–62
W@ W Illinois91–69
Lvs E Illinois67–71
L@ Tennessee Tech57–72

A week or more of rest.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Lindenwood Lions

What could decide it: LIN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Illinois

Lindenwood Lions

Matchup stats

N Illinois

Lindenwood Lions