1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Dec 12
  3. UNF @ SDAK
NCAAB · Sat, Dec 12

North Florida Ospreys at South Dakota Coyotes

Sanford Coyote Sports Center · at South Dakota
#333UNFNorth Florida
@
#291SDAKSouth Dakota
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UNFThis seasonSDAK
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SDAK 84–78 · win probability SDAK 72%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 162.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SDAK has more of the edges

UNF 3, SDAK 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
SDAKBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UNF 28.8, SDAK 45.2. Allowed: UNF 31.4, SDAK 31.0
SDAKBig
SDAK offense vs UNF defense
Offense 197th of 366 against a defense 363rd, on the model’s ratings
SDAKBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UNF 25.2%, SDAK 28.7%. Defensive: UNF 62.4%, SDAK 69.7%
Context
Schedule so far
UNF has played the 168th-hardest schedule, SDAK the 305th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UNFBig
UNF offense vs SDAK defense
Offense 228th of 366 against a defense 355th, on the model’s ratings
SDAKBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UNF 17.8%, SDAK 16.5%. Forced: UNF 12.8%, SDAK 15.9%
UNFSmall
Three-pointers
UNF hits 35.0% and allows 35.1%; SDAK hits 32.4% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 51.7% and 35.9% of their shots
SDAKSmall
Home court
SDAK at home. This season: SDAK 0-0 at home, UNF 0-0 away
UNFSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UNF 52.9 and allows 56.3; SDAK 49.9 and allows 54.5
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UNF 45%, SDAK 26%. Transfers in: UNF 3, SDAK 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: UNF plays 72.3 a game (31st fastest), SDAK 72.6 (23rd). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SDAK -6.7—
Total—162.1—
Projected score—UNF 77.7 · SDAK 84.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSDAK -3.8—
1H total75.7—
1H projected scoreUNF 35.9 · SDAK 39.8—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: North Florida 1, South Dakota 1, even 3
North FloridaBetterSouth Dakota
G K. Jackson14.8 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.2 ast Score 38
UNFSmall
G J. Summers TR9.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 22
G B. Plummer7.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 1.1 ast Score 3
SDAKSmall
G M. Sanchez TR9.7 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 34
G M. Lee7.8 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.9 ast Score 29
Even
G V. Buzelis7.1 pts · 4.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27
G E. Placer TR8.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 21
Even
G K. Kublickas TR5.5 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 19
G E. Elliott TR4.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 8
Even
F E. Kizer4 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.2 ast Score 5
North FloridaBetterSouth Dakota
UNF offense228th of 366 · -7.0
UNFBig
SDAK defense355th of 366 · -10.1
UNF defense363rd of 366 · -12.0
SDAKBig
SDAK offense197th of 366 · -6.1
Backcourt-12.6 · 5 players
SDAKBig
Backcourt-7.3 · 4 players
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt-2.0 · 1 player
Bench-0.7 · 2 players
UNFSmall
Bench-1.8 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUNF betterSDAK betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
North Florida
Guards
K. Jackson33 minB. Plummer27 minM. Lee26 minE. Placer26 min · TRE. Elliott22 min · TRG. Jacobs3 min
Forwards
A. Bryant8 min · TRA. BegajNewI. BrownNew
South Dakota
Guards
J. Summers27 min · TRM. Sanchez25 min · TRV. Buzelis24 minK. Kublickas20 min · TRC. Kelderman4 min · TRE. WarrenNew
Forwards
E. Kizer15 minJ. Brack14 minJ. Townley-Thomas5 min · TRT. NetolickyNewB. DomschNew
Centers
S. van Bussel5 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UNFSDAK
Scoring
77.1 #112Points per game78.0 #94
1.06 #218Points per possession1.07 #207
72.3 #31Pace (possessions)72.6 #23
Shooting
52.9 #106Effective FG%49.9 #239
35.0 #1173-point %32.4 #264
51.7 #73-point attempt rate35.9 #251
28.8 #333Free throw rate45.2 #4
Possessions
17.8 #261Turnover rate16.5 #168
25.2 #335Offensive rebound rate28.7 #242
13.4 #185Assists per game11.9 #295
Defense
89.6 #365Points allowed81.7 #337
1.24 #364Points allowed per possession1.13 #284
56.3 #349Opponent effective FG%54.5 #318
35.1 #253Opponent 3-point %34.5 #219
12.8 #360Turnovers forced15.9 #225
62.4 #361Defensive rebound rate69.7 #172
4.6 #352Steals per game6.1 #223
1.4 #364Blocks per game2.6 #293
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

North Florida

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 5-14 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs West Georgia85–93
  • Lvs Jacksonville61–85
  • Wvs FGCU76–70
  • L@ Stetson71–76
  • Lvs Austin Peay76–77

A week or more of rest.

South Dakota

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Omaha62–76
  • Wvs S Dakota St75–70
  • Wvs Omaha89–72
  • L@ Oral Roberts62–67
  • L@ Denver70–90

A week or more of rest.