Portland State Vikings at South Dakota Coyotes: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 8:00 PM ETSanford Coyote Sports Center · at South Dakota

#274PRSTPortland St77▲ winner

Final

Closing linePRST -2.5✓ PRST covered by 3.5

Closing total158.5Under by 10.5

Season records: Portland St and South Dakota
PRST	This season	SDAK
2-2	Record	4-3
4-0	ATS	4-3
2-2	O/U	1-6

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PRST 83–82 SDAK · ✓ PRST (54%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PRST	38	39	77
SDAK	31	40	71

1st half: PRST 38, SDAK 31 (PRST by 7). The model had PRST by 0.8 and a total of 77.0 (actual 69).

Team stats

PRST		SDAK
28-59 47%	Field goals	22-58 38%
3-10 30%	3-pointers	4-17 24%
18-26 69%	Free throws	23-34 68%
36 9 off	Rebounds	40 13 off
16	Assists	8
11	Steals	12
6	Blocks	3
13	Turnovers	17
23	Fouls	20
50	Points in paint	30
24	Fast-break points	9

Players

PRST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Keyon Kensie Jr. G	36	22	10	0	8-17	0-3
Jaylin Henderson G	35	11	3	11	4-13	0-1
Terri Miller Jr. F	35	26	11	1	10-15	2-3
Alex Dupre G	22	2	4	1	0-2	0-1
Tre-Vaughn Minott C	15	7	3	0	3-5	0-0
Bench
Kelcy Phipps G	24	4	0	1	1-4	1-2
Sebastian Tidor G	16	3	0	1	1-2	0-0
Charles Chukwu F	6	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Kean Webb C	6	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Brycen Long G	5	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Matt Beatty, Brayden Barron, Isaiah Williams, Colt Ness, Mozae Downing-Rivers, Samuel Stewart IV, Isaac Brice

SDAK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Isaac Bruns G	35	28	9	3	8-17	2-4
Uzziah Buntyn G	31	11	3	1	3-9	1-3
Jordan Crawford G	31	9	3	1	4-13	1-5
Cameron Fens C	27	15	6	0	6-10	0-0
Jake Brack F	18	0	3	1	0-0	0-0
Bench
Ethan Kizer F	14	4	1	0	1-4	0-3
Shey Eberwein G	13	2	6	1	0-2	0-1
Evan Anderson G	11	2	0	1	0-2	0-1
Jesse McIntosh G	8	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Vince Buzelis G	8	0	3	0	0-0	0-0
Ashton Smith F	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Luke Bruns, Jonah Funk, Porter Ihnen, Jalen Hayes, Josiah Dotzler, Caleb Kizer

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PRST -2.5	PRST -1.0	SDAK +1.5	L PRST covered
Total	158.5	164.6	Over 6.1	L Under
Projected score	—	PRST 82.8 · SDAK 81.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PRST -0.8	PRST -7.0
1H total	77.0	69
1H projected score	PRST 38.9 · SDAK 38.1	PRST 38 · SDAK 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PRST WWWW	4-0	100%	3-0	2-0
SDAK WWLLW	4-3	57%	2-2	1-1

Venue/role: PRST away, as favorite; SDAK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PRST OUOU	2-2	50%	2-2
SDAK UUUOU	1-6	14%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PRSTlast 4	2-2 50%	4-0 100%	2-2 50%
SDAKlast 7	4-3 57%	4-3 57%	1-6 14%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Portland St

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

4-0

100% covers · avg +3.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +8.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@STAN	L 79-89	+11.5	W +1.5	144.5	O 168
Nov 12	@SF	L 70-80	+13.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 150
Nov 17	vsCSUB	W 93-80	-8.5	W +4.5	141.5	O 173
Nov 25	@UTU	W 68-63	-1.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

STAN

L 79-89

+1.5

L 70-80

+3.5

CSUB

W 93-80

+4.5

UTU

W 68-63

+3.5

covered 4didn’t cover 0avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

STAN

L 79-89

+23.5

L 70-80

−4.5

CSUB

W 93-80

+31.5

UTU

W 68-63

−15.5

over 2under 2avg +8.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

South Dakota

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

4-3

57% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-6

14% overs · avg −3.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

L L W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-357%

L W W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-614%

U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUTU	L 79-81	-1.5	L −3.5	164.5	U 160
Nov 5	@CREI	L 76-92	+29.5	W +13.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 12	vsUSI	W 89-74	-7.5	W +7.5	164.5	U 163
Nov 16	vsWMU	W 83-78	-3.5	W +1.5	172.5	U 161
Nov 20	@MIZ	L 68-102	+24.5	L −9.5	171.5	U 170
Nov 23	vsSCST	W 82-81	-15.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 163
Nov 29	vsAF	W 80-63	-3.5	W +13.5	147.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTU

L 79-81

−3.5

CREI

L 76-92

+13.5

USI

W 89-74

+7.5

WMU

W 83-78

+1.5

MIZ

L 68-102

−9.5

SCST

W 82-81

−14.5

W 80-63

+13.5

covered 4didn’t cover 3avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTU

L 79-81

−4.5

CREI

L 76-92

−1.5

USI

W 89-74

−1.5

WMU

W 83-78

−11.5

MIZ

L 68-102

−1.5

SCST

W 82-81

+2.5

W 80-63

−4.5

over 1under 6avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Portland State Vikings at South Dakota Coyotes

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Portland St

South Dakota

Portland St

South Dakota