Boston University Terriers at Maine Black Bears: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Dec 12, 2:00 PM ETSkip Chappelle Court in Memorial Gymnasium · at Maine

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Boston U and Maine
BU	This season	ME
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BU 68–67 · win probability BU 55%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 135.3

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ME has more of the edges

BU 3, ME 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

BUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BU 28.0%, ME 19.7%. Defensive: BU 72.0%, ME 65.7%

BUBig

ME offense vs BU defense

Offense 357th of 366 against a defense 201st, on the model’s ratings

MEBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BU 17.7%, ME 19.2%. Forced: BU 13.0%, ME 19.3%

MEBig

BU offense vs ME defense

Offense 305th of 366 against a defense 191st, on the model’s ratings

MESmall

Home court

ME at home. This season: ME 0-0 at home, BU 0-0 away

MESmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BU 31.4, ME 38.4. Allowed: BU 30.5, ME 33.9

BUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: BU 57.5 and allows 53.6; ME 49.6 and allows 50.6

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BU 52%, ME 31%. Transfers in: BU 1, ME 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Schedule so far

BU has played the 296th-hardest schedule, ME the 319th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Three-pointers

BU hits 38.9% and allows 36.6%; ME hits 31.2% and allows 29.4%. Threes are 43.8% and 37.0% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: BU plays 65.2 a game (340th fastest), ME 64.9 (348th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	BU -1.3	—
Total	—	135.3	—
Projected score	—	BU 68.3 · ME 67

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BU -0.9	—
1H total	63.4	—
1H projected score	BU 32.1 · ME 31.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BU WWWWL	17-16	52%	8-10	—
ME WWLLW	14-17	45%	3-8	—

Venue/role: BU away; ME home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BU UUOOU	19-14	58%	16-17
ME UUOUU	12-19	39%	7-24

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
ME	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Boston U

No more games listed yet.

Maine

No more games listed yet.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BU 1–2 MEME leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · BU 1-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 10, 2025-26	ME 69 @ BU 59	BU -8.5	ME W
Dec 29, 2024-25	BU 59 @ ME 56	ME -3.5	BU W
Dec 6, 2023-24	ME 74 @ BU 65	BU +2.5	ME W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Boston U

33 games played

Straight up

16-17

48% wins

Against the spread

17-16

52% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +8.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1748%

W L W L L W L L L L L W L L W W L L W L L L W W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1652%

W L W L L W W L L L L W L L W W L L L W L L W W W W W L W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1458%

O U O O U O O U O U U O O U O O O U O O U O U O O O U U U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NE	W 76-75	+2.5	W +3.5	142.5	O 151
Nov 7	@NU	L 52-76	+17.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 12	vsBRWN	W 90-77	-3.5	W +9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 15	vsMRMK	L 79-91	-2.5	L −14.5	135.5	O 170
Nov 18	@COLU	L 49-54	+4.5	L −0.5	144.5	U 103
Nov 22	vsHARV	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	136.5	O 149
Nov 25	@PSU	L 87-96	+14.5	W +5.5	142.5	O 183
Nov 29	@NKU	L 65-74	+7.5	L −1.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 6	@UNH	L 82-88	-5.5	L −11.5	134.5	O 170
Dec 10	vsME	L 59-69	-8.5	L −18.5	128.5	U 128
Dec 13	@DART	L 64-77	+2.5	L −10.5	144.5	U 141
Dec 21	vsUML	W 88-76	-5.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 164
Dec 31	@NAVY	L 77-82	+4.5	L −0.5	137.5	O 159
Jan 3	vsAMER	L 62-64	-1.5	L −3.5	142.5	U 126
Jan 7	@LAF	W 83-67	-1.5	W +14.5	142.5	O 150
Jan 10	vsARMY	W 100-91	-7.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 14	vsLEH	L 91-93	-4.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 184
Jan 17	@L-MD	L 57-74	-1.5	L −18.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 21	vsLAF	W 77-73	-4.5	L −0.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 24	@COLG	L 79-80	+7.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 28	vsNAVY	L 50-58	+1.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 108
Jan 31	@BUCK	L 97-103	-1.5	L −7.5	138.5	O 200
Feb 2	@HC	W 72-64	-2.5	W +5.5	139.5	U 136
Feb 7	vsL-MD	W 78-69	-5.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 11	@ARMY	W 85-68	-2.5	W +14.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 14	vsBUCK	W 82-69	-5.5	W +7.5	137.5	O 151
Feb 16	vsCOLG	W 85-58	+2.5	W +29.5	145.5	U 143
Feb 22	@LEH	L 67-70	-2.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 25	vsHC	W 78-63	-8.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 141
Feb 28	@AMER	W 68-65	+3.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 133
Mar 5	vsAMER	W 75-73	-1.5	W +0.5	141.5	O 148
Mar 8	@NAVY	W 73-72	+6.5	W +7.5	136.5	O 145
Mar 11	@LEH	L 60-74	-2.5	L −16.5	138.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 76-75

+3.5

L 52-76

−6.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+9.5

MRMK

L 79-91

−14.5

COLU

L 49-54

−0.5

HARV

W 75-74

+5.5

PSU

L 87-96

+5.5

NKU

L 65-74

−1.5

UNH

L 82-88

−11.5

L 59-69

−18.5

DART

L 64-77

−10.5

UML

W 88-76

+6.5

NAVY

L 77-82

−0.5

AMER

L 62-64

−3.5

LAF

W 83-67

+14.5

ARMY

W 100-91

+1.5

LEH

L 91-93

−6.5

L-MD

L 57-74

−18.5

LAF

W 77-73

−0.5

COLG

L 79-80

+6.5

NAVY

L 50-58

−6.5

BUCK

L 97-103

−7.5

W 72-64

+5.5

L-MD

W 78-69

+3.5

ARMY

W 85-68

+14.5

BUCK

W 82-69

+7.5

COLG

W 85-58

+29.5

LEH

L 67-70

−5.5

W 78-63

+6.5

AMER

W 68-65

+6.5

AMER

W 75-73

+0.5

NAVY

W 73-72

+7.5

LEH

L 60-74

−16.5

covered 17didn’t cover 16avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 76-75

+8.5

L 52-76

−8.5

BRWN

W 90-77

+37.5

MRMK

L 79-91

+34.5

COLU

L 49-54

−41.5

HARV

W 75-74

+12.5

PSU

L 87-96

+40.5

NKU

L 65-74

−4.5

UNH

L 82-88

+35.5

L 59-69

−0.5

DART

L 64-77

−3.5

UML

W 88-76

+18.5

NAVY

L 77-82

+21.5

AMER

L 62-64

−16.5

LAF

W 83-67

+7.5

ARMY

W 100-91

+50.5

LEH

L 91-93

+39.5

L-MD

L 57-74

−17.5

LAF

W 77-73

+4.5

COLG

L 79-80

+11.5

NAVY

L 50-58

−30.5

BUCK

L 97-103

+61.5

W 72-64

−3.5

L-MD

W 78-69

+1.5

ARMY

W 85-68

+12.5

BUCK

W 82-69

+13.5

COLG

W 85-58

−2.5

LEH

L 67-70

−4.5

W 78-63

−0.5

AMER

W 68-65

−7.5

AMER

W 75-73

+6.5

NAVY

W 73-72

+8.5

LEH

L 60-74

−4.5

over 19under 14avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Maine

31 games played

Straight up

7-24

23% wins

Against the spread

14-17

45% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-19

39% overs · avg −2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2423%

L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L L W W L W L L L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1745%

W L W L L L L W W L L W L L L W W W L W W L W L L L W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

12-1939%

U U O U O U O U U U O U U O U U O U U U O O O O O U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GW	L 47-67	+20.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	@STBK	L 60-71	+3.5	L −7.5	131.5	U 131
Nov 10	@RUTG	L 60-72	+18.5	W +6.5	130.5	O 132
Nov 16	vsQUIN	L 64-70	+3.5	L −2.5	137.5	U 134
Nov 19	@MRMK	L 65-72	+6.5	L −0.5	130.5	O 137
Nov 23	vsBRWN	L 53-58	+1.5	L −3.5	127.5	U 111
Nov 28	@AMER	L 61-74	+7.5	L −5.5	133.5	O 135
Nov 29	vsLONG	L 61-65	+5.5	W +1.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 30	vsSIE	L 60-64	+9.5	W +5.5	127.5	U 124
Dec 3	@OHIO	L 57-79	+12.5	L −9.5	138.5	U 136
Dec 6	@M-OH	L 61-93	+17.5	L −14.5	139.5	O 154
Dec 10	@BU	W 69-59	+8.5	W +18.5	128.5	U 128
Dec 13	vsCAN	L 43-70	-6.5	L −33.5	127.5	U 113
Dec 21	@DREX	L 56-74	+10.5	L −7.5	129.5	O 130
Jan 3	vsBRY	L 51-56	+1.5	L −3.5	125.5	U 107
Jan 8	@UMBC	L 62-69	+7.5	W +0.5	133.5	U 131
Jan 10	@NJIT	W 74-70	+1.5	W +5.5	130.5	O 144
Jan 15	@UVM	L 62-67	+14.5	W +9.5	130.5	U 129
Jan 19	vsUNH	L 48-65	-1.5	L −18.5	129.5	U 113
Jan 22	vsUALB	W 52-49	+2.5	W +5.5	131.5	U 101
Jan 24	vsBING	W 79-63	-5.5	W +10.5	124.5	O 142
Jan 31	@UML	L 77-91	+4.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 168
Feb 5	vsUVM	W 76-70	+8.5	W +14.5	130.5	O 146
Feb 7	@BRY	L 67-73	+2.5	L −3.5	128.5	O 140
Feb 12	vsUMBC	L 62-78	+3.5	L −12.5	135.5	O 140
Feb 14	vsNJIT	L 58-67	+1.5	L −7.5	137.5	U 125
Feb 21	@UNH	W 61-58	+3.5	W +6.5	135.5	U 119
Feb 26	@UALB	W 70-59	+4.5	W +15.5	130.5	U 129
Feb 28	@BING	L 67-74	-1.5	L −8.5	133.5	O 141
Mar 3	vsUML	L 56-67	+1.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 123
Mar 7	@NJIT	L 58-60	+3.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 118

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-67

+0.5

STBK

L 60-71

−7.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+6.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−2.5

MRMK

L 65-72

−0.5

BRWN

L 53-58

−3.5

AMER

L 61-74

−5.5

LONG

L 61-65

+1.5

SIE

L 60-64

+5.5

OHIO

L 57-79

−9.5

M-OH

L 61-93

−14.5

W 69-59

+18.5

CAN

L 43-70

−33.5

DREX

L 56-74

−7.5

BRY

L 51-56

−3.5

UMBC

L 62-69

+0.5

NJIT

W 74-70

+5.5

UVM

L 62-67

+9.5

UNH

L 48-65

−18.5

UALB

W 52-49

+5.5

BING

W 79-63

+10.5

UML

L 77-91

−9.5

UVM

W 76-70

+14.5

BRY

L 67-73

−3.5

UMBC

L 62-78

−12.5

NJIT

L 58-67

−7.5

UNH

W 61-58

+6.5

UALB

W 70-59

+15.5

BING

L 67-74

−8.5

UML

L 56-67

−9.5

NJIT

L 58-60

+1.5

covered 14didn’t cover 17avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-67

−29.5

STBK

L 60-71

−0.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+1.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−3.5

MRMK

L 65-72

+6.5

BRWN

L 53-58

−16.5

AMER

L 61-74

+1.5

LONG

L 61-65

−12.5

SIE

L 60-64

−3.5

OHIO

L 57-79

−2.5

M-OH

L 61-93

+14.5

W 69-59

−0.5

CAN

L 43-70

−14.5

DREX

L 56-74

+0.5

BRY

L 51-56

−18.5

UMBC

L 62-69

−2.5

NJIT

W 74-70

+13.5

UVM

L 62-67

−1.5

UNH

L 48-65

−16.5

UALB

W 52-49

−30.5

BING

W 79-63

+17.5

UML

L 77-91

+31.5

UVM

W 76-70

+15.5

BRY

L 67-73

+11.5

UMBC

L 62-78

+4.5

NJIT

L 58-67

−12.5

UNH

W 61-58

−16.5

UALB

W 70-59

−1.5

BING

L 67-74

+7.5

UML

L 56-67

−16.5

NJIT

L 58-60

−16.5

over 12under 19avg −2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Boston U 1, Maine 1, even 3

Boston UBetterMaine

G A. Abdullah8.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 13

Even

G D. Williams TR8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 23

G D. Tisinger6.1 pts · 2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 37

BUSmall

G C. Crawford4.2 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 14

G K. Alexander1 pts · 2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked

No call

G V. Garcia Adsten TR3.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11

F S. Hughes9.2 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 10

MESmall

F A. Flagg6.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 33

F Q. Nielsen1 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast Score 5

Even

F Y. Bamba2.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 11

Boston UBetterMaine

BU offense305th of 366 · -9.5

MESmall

ME defense191st of 366 · -4.5

BU defense201st of 366 · -5.0

BUBig

ME offense357th of 366 · -13.7

Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players

BUSmall

Backcourt-6.4 · 3 players

Frontcourt-4.3 · 2 players

MESmall

Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players

Bench-0.1 · 3 players

Even

Bench-0.7 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestBU betterME betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Boston U

Guards

A. Abdullah30 minD. Tisinger20 minK. Alexander11 minP. Carr2 minA. ZakheimNewJ. TerryNew

Forwards

S. Hughes30 minQ. Nielsen8 minM. Oberti4 min · TRA. Bhesania3 minM. BaptisteNewD. LloydNew

Maine

Guards

D. Williams25 min · TRC. Crawford20 minV. Garcia Adsten18 min · TRD. LopesNewK. BedardNewH. FranzNew

Forwards

A. Flagg25 minY. Bamba12 minA. Evans8 min · TRK. Gribben3 minE. Byther2 minO. Faubert2 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BU74.5 #176

ME61.2 #364

Points per possession

BU1.14 #72

ME0.95 #356

Pace (possessions)

BU65.2 #340

ME64.9 #348

Shooting

Effective FG%

BU57.5 #11

ME49.6 #263

3-point %

BU38.9 #5

ME31.2 #314

3-point attempt rate

BU43.8 #92

ME37.0 #231

Free throw rate

BU31.4 #270

ME38.4 #93

Possessions

Turnover rate

BU17.7 #252

ME19.2 #328

Offensive rebound rate

BU28.0 #269

ME19.7 #364

Assists per game

BU14.2 #131

ME11.8 #300

Defense

Points allowed

BU74.5 #174

ME68.5 #39

Points allowed per possession

BU1.14 #310

ME1.05 #90

Opponent effective FG%

BU53.6 #288

ME50.6 #136

Opponent 3-point %

BU36.6 #330

ME29.4 #4

Turnovers forced

BU13.0 #353

ME19.3 #38

Defensive rebound rate

BU72.0 #65

ME65.7 #322

Steals per game

BU4.7 #346

ME7.7 #57

Blocks per game

BU3.3 #181

ME3.2 #194

BU		ME
Scoring
74.5 #176	Points per game	61.2 #364
1.14 #72	Points per possession	0.95 #356
65.2 #340	Pace (possessions)	64.9 #348
Shooting
57.5 #11	Effective FG%	49.6 #263
38.9 #5	3-point %	31.2 #314
43.8 #92	3-point attempt rate	37.0 #231
31.4 #270	Free throw rate	38.4 #93
Possessions
17.7 #252	Turnover rate	19.2 #328
28.0 #269	Offensive rebound rate	19.7 #364
14.2 #131	Assists per game	11.8 #300
Defense
74.5 #174	Points allowed	68.5 #39
1.14 #310	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #90
53.6 #288	Opponent effective FG%	50.6 #136
36.6 #330	Opponent 3-point %	29.4 #4
13.0 #353	Turnovers forced	19.3 #38
72.0 #65	Defensive rebound rate	65.7 #322
4.7 #346	Steals per game	7.7 #57
3.3 #181	Blocks per game	3.2 #194

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Boston U

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Lehigh60–74
W@ Navy73–72
Wvs American75–73
W@ American68–65
Wvs Holy Cross78–63

A week or more of rest.

Maine

7-24 in 2025-26 overall · 6-11 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ NJIT58–60
Lvs UMass Lowell56–67
L@ Binghamton67–74
W@ UAlbany70–59
W@ New Hampshire61–58

A week or more of rest.

Boston University Terriers at Maine Black Bears

What could decide it: ME has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Boston U

Maine

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Boston U

Maine